The number of children at risk of poverty rose by more than 35,000 in two years between 2007 and 2009, the most recent year for which statistics are available. The income of a household of four on social welfare is currently €80 a week below the poverty line. However, it is crucial to realise that child poverty cannot be addressed in isolation; it needs to be considered within the wider issue of household poverty. These points were made by Social Justice Ireland when it addressed a meeting of the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Health and Children on November 18th, 2011. Social Justice Ireland challenged Government to prioritise the elimination of poverty. It went on to point out that no child can be taken out of poverty while the household in which they live remains in poverty. The long term solution to child poverty is to ensure that all households are lifted out of poverty. In that process all children will also be lifted out of poverty.
In its meeting with the Oireachtas Committee, Social Justice Ireland argued strongly that Child Benefit levels be maintained in Budget 2012. They also presented a set of long term policy proposals to address both household and child poverty.
Child Benefit is a key instrument in tackling child poverty and is of particular benefit to those on low incomes. Social Justice Ireland argued that:
Social Justice Ireland went on to outline how basic income would be the most efficient means of eliminating household poverty, unemployment traps, poverty traps and child poverty in the twenty first century . Social Justice Ireland went on to state that the introduction of a Basic Income system would immediately lift households and children out of poverty whist recognising the right of everyone including children to a share of resources in society.
Social Justice Ireland highlighted three key benefits of Basic Income:
Much public commentary on Africa is very negative and often is tinged with despair. But much that is really worthwhile is being done on that continent. Here is one example of some very good work.
New voices, different perspectives is a collection of some of the most insightful and creative African-led projects and research tackling climate change and poverty across the continent of Africa. It is packed with ideas shared by over 200 participants at the AfricaAdapt Climate Change Symposium 2011. The wealth of knowledge and experience represents the leading local, national, regional and pan-African responses to the threat of climate change.
While the texts produced by the Irish Government and the ECB/IMF/EU following the latter's review of Ireland's progress in implementing the Bailout agreement contained little information on changes or adjustments to the agreement, the latter's statement contained one blatent claim that seriously insults Ireland's poorest and most vulnerable people.
In its opening paragraph the ECB/IMF/EU statement claimed: "Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the program (sic) priorities". Nothing could be further from the truth.
Social Justice Ireland believes that:
- Those who are poor and/or vulnerable are bearing an inordinate part of the burden of restructuring which, in practice, is leading to their being dispossessed as their resources (financial and services) are being appropriated to pay those who took risks, gambled their resources, lost and are now to be fully re-paid.
- This process may be legal but it is profoundly immoral. It is a process which is securing and protecting the position and resources of those who are rich while taking away even the little they have from those who are poor, vulnerable and on the margin. It should not be allowed to continue.
- The bailout programme should be re-negotiated. This re-negotiation should lead to an outcome:
To claim, as the ECB/IMF/EU statement does that ""Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the program (sic) priorities" is simply to insult Ireland's poorest and most vulnerable people - a process these groups have engaged in before and seem intent on repeating.
This is the information supplied by the Irish Government on the revisions to the EU/IMF Bailout negotiated at the end of the second quarter of this Bailout. It was supplied on April 15, 2011.
EU/IMF Programme of Financial Support for Ireland
The Government has successfully concluded the first and second quarterly programme review mission with the EU Commission, the ECB and the IMF.
The purpose of the quarterly review mission has been to evaluate performance against targets to date on all the elements of the programme of financial support for Ireland including fiscal developments, the macroeconomic outlook, progress on commitments in the restructuring of the financial sector and structural reform. The Government is pleased that the staff mission has assessed the Programme to be on track and in their view the targets in the Programme have been met.
During this programme review, a number of Government members along with senior officials, have met with representatives from the EU, ECB and IMF (the external partners) and assured them of this Government’s commitment to the fiscal targets set out in the EU/IMF Programme. There have been several days of discussions at a technical and policy level and we have developed a good level of understanding between us about the plans and intentions of the new Government, and the needs of the Programme, and the Commission, IMF and ECB team have been helpful in their approach.
In the negotiations with the external partners, the Government set out measures that we would be seeking to include in the revised Programme. During the negotiations, it became clear that there was sufficient flexibility within the Programme to allow us to include these important policy measures, while respecting the overall fiscal parameters and goals of the programme. The revised Programme will now include these measures dealing with the Jobs Initiative, the minimum wage, the comprehensive spending review, amongst other measures (See Notes for Editors). The Government will constantly strive to ensure structural reform and competitive improvements in our economy.
There was also considerable discussion of our ongoing banking issues. The impact and importance of our recent PCAR/PLAR exercise and the restructuring of our banking system on which we are now engaged was fully recognized in the course of our discussions. But both we and our partners in this Programme understand the importance to maintain the momentum, to drive forward with the reforms, and to acknowledge and address issues that arise. We have made big progress on this in a short time and we must press on to complete the job. Yesterday’s reference to the High Court in relation to AIB Bank subordinated bonds is a case in point – we are already taking the actions we announced just a couple of weeks ago.
The Review will be formally completed with the consideration by Eurogroup, ECOFIN and the IMF Executive Board of the reports by their various staffs on progress to date – and the proposed amendments. There is still some technical work and approvals required in relation to the review documentation. The final documents will be made publicly available when final approval occurs on 15th and 16th May. This will be followed by a Dáil debate on the Programme.
Prior to the final publication of the documentation, it is clear that :
· The conditions of the programme are being broadly met to date
· the fiscal programme is on track.
· important progress has been made in addressing banking sector challenges including
Ø The recapitalization, restructuring and development of plans for deleveraging the banking system. Action on these issues is to move ahead in a timely manner.
Ø The programme partners and the Government are determined to continue the momentum of the recent actions taken in relation to the banks.
Ø All the critical benchmarks for end-December 2010 and for end-March were met. These included, for example, publication of the Central Bank and Credit Institutions (Resolution) Bill 2011, the assessment of banks deleveraging plans and the completion of diagnostic evaluation of banks’ assets and the stress tests. The Central Bank released the detailed results of the Financial Measures Programme , which was endorsed by the financing partners and has been well received by financial markets.
As has been agreed and is standard under programmes of financial support, the Government will continue to consult with the Fund, the European Commission and the ECB on any changes to the policy measures outlined in the agreed support programme.
15th April 2011
Ends
Notes
The Government has set out the following key features to be incorporated in the revised Memorandum for Government:
Financial Sector Policies
Restructuring of the Financial Sector
Deleveraging
Recapitalisation of the Banking System
Strengthening the Banking Framework
o Continuing to enhance banking supervision.
o Ensuring that banks adopt prudent policies to address the deterioration in asset quality.
o Ensuring sound bank lending and risk management.
o Enhancing the quality and availability of credit information available to credit providers
o The PCAR in 2012 will be timed to coincide with the EBA stress test.
Fiscal Policies
o we will establish a Fiscal Advisory Council to provide an independent assessment of public finances.
o The Fiscal Responsibility Bill, to be submitted to Dáil Éireann before end 2011, will reform the budgetary framework.
o we will introduce by end-December 2011 binding multi-annual expenditure ceilings with broad coverage.
o The Programme for Government contains proposals for reforms to Ireland’s budgetary framework and the Department will organise a seminar in May 2011 to allow for discussion of policy options.
Structural Reforms
Product and Labour Market Reforms
Programme Financing
Programme Monitoring
The following is the full text of the statement by the ECB/IMF/EU team on completing their review of Ireland's Bailout. The statement was issued on April 15, 2011.
Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB), and International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Dublin during April 5-15 for the first quarterly review of the government’s economic program. The objectives of the program are to address financial sector weaknesses and to put Ireland’s economy on the path of sustainable growth, sound public finances, and job creation. Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the program priorities.
The teams’ assessment is that the program is on track but challenges remain and steadfast policy implementation will be key.
Ireland is making good progress in overcoming the worst economic crisis in its recent history. Program implementation has been determined, despite the period of political change and a uncertain external environment. The new government, through its Programme for Government and its decisive approach to banking sector reforms, has taken full ownership of the goals and key elements of the EU-IMF-supported program.
The macroeconomic outlook for 2011 is for growth to resume. After contracting by 1 percent in 2010, real GDP is expected to grow in 2011, albeit more slowly than previously forecast. Strong exports lead the expansion, supported by improved competitiveness and world trade growth. Domestic demand will continue to contract, although at a slower pace. Core inflation is forecast to remain subdued but rising energy and food prices are increasing headline inflation.
In the banking sector, the comprehensive recapitalization and reforms announced on March 31 are a major step towards restoring the Irish banking system to health. The credibility of the exercise has been reflected in positive market reaction, with the Irish bond yields declining following the announcement. The review mission discussions focused on the priorities for implementing these reforms, including reorganizing and deleveraging the banking system, and strengthening its capital base. These steps are crucial for enabling the banking system to become a driver of economic recovery.
On the fiscal front, the targets for end-December 2010 and end-March 2011 were met by a comfortable margin. The budget deficit is projected at about 10 ½ percent of GDP in 2011, and the authorities reaffirmed their strong commitment to the fiscal consolidation agreed in the EU-IMF-supported program, as well as to a deficit of 3 percent of GDP in 2015. In the near-term, the authorities plan to adopt a Jobs Initiative package to stimulate employment, within the agreed fiscal targets. The authorities are also carrying out a comprehensive spending review to ensure that fiscal consolidation is underpinned by the most effective use of resources. These, and other measures included in the program, will help ensure sustainability of public finances.
Regarding structural reforms, supportive measures in the Jobs Initiative and reform of sectoral wage-setting arrangements on the basis of an ongoing review will foster job creation. The government also plans to introduce legislative changes to remove restrictions on trade and competition in sheltered sectors, including the legal profession, medical services and the pharmacy profession.
Continued strong program implementation, with support from the EU and the IMF, remains key to achieving Ireland's return to capital markets at affordable interest rates.
The government’s program is supported by loans from the European Union and EU member states amounting to €45.0 billion and a €22.5 billion Extended Fund Facility [hyperlinks] with the Fund. Ireland’s contribution is €17.5 billion. Approval of the conclusion of the first review will allow the disbursement of €4.5 billion (€2.9 billion by the EU, and €1.6 billion by the IMF). The mission for the next program review is scheduled for July 2011.
A pdf version of this statement may be accessed here.
On May 20, 2011 the IMF published its Staff Report on the first and second reviews of Ireland's Bailout Agreement. It also contains other related documents including the memorandum of economic and financial policies and the technical memorandum of understanding.
The EU/IMF Programme Documents for Ireland's Bailout can be accessed here.
The following are the programme measures contained in the agreement between the IMF, the EU, the ECB and the Irish Government. These measures cover three areas: Fiscal measures, structural reforms as well as bank recapitalisation and restructuring measures. Details below.
A pdf version of these measures can be downloaded here.
Programme Measures
Fiscal Measures in the Programme
Taxation
Lowering of personal income tax bands and credits or equivalent measures
A reduction in pension tax relief and pension related deductions
A reduction in general tax expenditures
Excise and other tax increases
A reduction in private pension tax reliefs
A reduction in general tax expenditures
Site Valuation Tax to fund local services
A reform of capital gains tax and acquisitions tax
An increase in the carbon tax
Programme Expenditure
Savings in Social Protection expenditure through enhanced control measures, structural reform measures, a fall in the live register and if necessary, further rate reductions.
Increase the state pension age to 66 years in 2014, 67 in 2021 and 68 in 2028.
Public Service Costs
Reduction of public service costs through a reduction in numbers and reform of work practices as agreed in the Croke Park Agreement.
A reduction of existing public service pensions on a progressive basis averaging over 4% will be introduced.
New public service entrants will also see a 10% pay reduction.
- Reform of Pension entitlements for new entrants to the public service
o including a review of accelerated retirement for certain categories of public servants and an indexation of pensions to consumer prices.
o Pensions will be based on career average earnings.
o New entrants' retirement age will also be linked to the state pension retirement age.
Other
Other programme expenditure and reductions in public capital investment
Structural fiscal reforms
a Fiscal Responsibility Law will be introduced including a medium-term expenditure framework with binding multi-annual ceilings on expenditure in each area
Additional unplanned revenues must be allocated to debt reduction.
The government will establish a budgetary advisory council to provide an independent assessment of the Government’s budgetary position and forecasts.
the voluntary 15 day rule for prompt payments is extended to the health service executive, local authorities and state agencies
measures to be put in place to cap the contribution of the local government sector to general government borrowing at an acceptable level.
Structural reforms in the Programme
Labour market adjustment
Minimum wage:
Reduce national minimum wage by €1.00 per hour to foster job creation for categories at higher risk of unemployment and to prevent distortions associated with sectoral minimum wages
Enlarge the scope for the "inability to pay clause"
- An independent review of the Registered Employment Agreements and Employment Regulation Orders. Terms of Reference to be agreed with European Commission Services.
− Reform of the unemployment benefit system to incentivise early exit from unemployment.
− Steps to tackle unemployment and poverty traps including reducing replacement rates for individuals receiving more than one type of benefit (including housing allowance).
- Streamline administration of unemployment benefits, social assistance and active labour market policies, to reduce the overlapping of competencies among different departments;
- Enhanced conditionality on work and training availability;
− Reform of activation policies:
improved job profiling and increased engagement;
a more effective monitoring of jobseekers' activities with regular evidence-based reports;
the application of sanction mechanisms for beneficiaries not complying with job-search conditionality and recommendations for participation in labour market programmes
Review of the personal debt regime:
New legislation to be prepared which will balance the interests of both creditors and debtors.
Competition
Removal of restrictions to competition in sheltered sectors including:
Legal profession:
establish an independent regulator;
implement the recommendations of the Legal Costs Working Group and outstanding
Competition Authority recommendations:
Medical Profession.
eliminate restrictions on the number of GPs qualifying, remove restrictions on GPs wishing to treat public patients and restrictions on advertising.
Pharmacy Profession:
ensure the recent elimination of the 50% mark-up paid for medicines under the State's Drugs Payments Scheme is enforced.
Enhanced competition in open markets
empower judges to impose fines and other sanctions in competition cases in order to generate more credible deterrence
require the competition authorities to list restrictions in competition law which exclude certain sectors from its scope and to identify processes to address them.
Examination of the impact of eliminating the cap on the size of retail premises.
Bank Recapitalisation and Restructuring Measures
The Programme for the recovery of the banking system will be an intensification of the measures already adopted by the Government. The programme provides for a recapitalisation, fundamental downsizing, restructuring and reorganisation of the banking sector. The outcome will lead to a smaller banking system more proportionate to the size of the economy, capitalised to the highest international standards, with renewed access to normal market sources of funding and focused on strongly supporting the recovery of the economy.
The proposed programme has been developed with the assistance of, and is endorsed by, our international partners.
The main elements of the programme are as follows:-
Building on the results of the Central Bank of Ireland’s Prudential Capital Assessment Review (PCAR) carried out earlier this year additional capital requirements have been set.
The domestic banking system will benefit from a substantial and immediate recapitalisation raising Core Tier 1 capital ratios to at least 12%.
This action, along with early measures to support deleveraging set out below will result in an immediate injection of €10bn of fresh capital into the banking system, above and beyond that already committed.
Further recapitalisations will take place in the first half of 2011 as necessary based on the results of a detailed review and updating of the banks’ capital needs following a revised PCAR exercise undertaken by the Central Bank of Ireland and involving stringent stress testing.
A Prudential Liquidity Assessment Review (PLAR) will be implemented by the Central Bank of Ireland for the domestic banks to identify deleveraging actions necessary to significantly reduce their reliance on short term funding.
A substantial downsizing of the banking system will be achieved through early and decisive actions including:-
o Banks will be required to run down non-core assets, securitize and or sell portfolios or divisions with credit enhancement provided by the State, if needed.
o The NAMA Scheme will be extended to remove remaining vulnerable land and development loans from Bank of Ireland and Allied Irish Bank by end-Q1 2011
o This process will be carried out in a carefully balanced and controlled manner with the benefit of the substantial resources available to the banks for their funding and capital needs.
o Banks will be required to promptly and fully provide for all nonperforming assets.
o The restructuring of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society will be swiftly completed and submitted for EU State aid approval.
A significant strengthening of the regulation and stability of the credit union sector will be carried out by end-2011
o A special legislative regime to resolve distressed credit institutions will be introduced early in 2011.
o Specific legislation to support immediate restructuring actions is in preparation.
The credibility and implementation of the programme is underpinned by the availability of a very substantial capital pool comprised of both national and international resources.
The programme builds on and complements the broad set of actions taken by the Government over the past two years to resolve the difficulties of the banking sector including the provision of guarantees, recapitalisation of the banks and NAMA.
The primary objective of this far-reaching programme is to rebuild international market confidence in the Irish banking system to enable the banks to revert to normal market funding in due course and reduce progressively their reliance on funding from the Eurosystem and guarantees and other financial support from the Exchequer.
The programme provides a strong foundation for a reformed and restructured banking system. The programme is underpinned by the large commitment of financial resources to recovery of the banking system and the support and endorsement of the programme by the IMF and the EU.
This will be crucial to ensuring that the banks play a full and vital role in underpinning economic recovery and the achievement of the Government’s objectives detailed in the National Recovery Plan.
A more comprehensive European approach to dealing with the region's debt crisis is needed to help Ireland regain access to debt markets, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday May 20, 2011. The IMF went on to say that Europe needed to address the risk of financial stress in its periphery through a more "comprehensive" plan.
Speaking at a news conference in Washington Ajai Chopra, IMF mission chief to Ireland said: "For policy matters that are under their control, the Irish authorities have been decisive and are doing all they can to get ahead of their problems".
However he went on to say: "But we do need to recognise that they may not be sufficient...This is why we have put emphasis on support from a more comprehensive and consistent European plan."
The IMF said greater confidence around the availability of European Central Bank medium-term funding for Irish banks, at the root of the country's economic woes, would help the lenders return to debt markets.
The IMF also said the ouitlook for Ireland's debt remained fragile. It noted some risks had risen due to weaker economic growth, higher unemployment, rating agency downgrades and problems in Europe's periphery.
It also noted that higher market interest rates and weaker prospects for growth in the medium-term are risks to Ireland's debt outlook but the IMF said accelerating Dublin's fiscal austerity programme would not mitigate such risks and would further retard growth.
The full text of the IMF Staff report on the first and ssecond dreviews of Ireland's bailout agreement and related documents may be accessed here.
The insult to Ireland’s poor and vulnerable people originally perpetrated by EU Commissioner for Economic and Monitory Affairs, Mr Olli Rehn (when he refused to meet representatives of these groups during his recent visit to Ireland) has been repeated and worsened by the terms of the bailout agreement. The bailout programme proposes to target unemployed people while they make no provision for any new jobs that unemployed people could take up to exit unemployment. It is an insult to poor people and unemployed people to blame them for their unemployment.
The terms of the bailout programme have confirmed that the European Commission and the IMF support the Government’s budgetary strategy which will damage the poor, the sick, the vulnerable and the unemployed. It is not acceptable that the IMF claim it is protecting poor people when this is patently not the case.
It is totally unacceptable that the European Commission, the IMF and the Irish Government develop and implement a programme which will see Ireland’s weakest groups take the major part of the ‘hit’ for the reckless actions of greedy bankers, incompetent regulators and an inept government. It is important to note that they are doing this while failing to deal effectively with the underlying problem of the moral hazard where banks are allowed to act recklessly knowing they will always be rescued by the taxpayer.
It is clear that the European Commission, the IMF and the Irish Government, have decided that those who are rich and/or strong will not be asked to make sacrifices while those who are weak and poor will bear the brunt of the Government’s budget adjustments. This can be seen clearly in the proposals to:
Social Justice Ireland fully acknowledges the gravity of the present situation which has been caused by a variety of groups including bankers, regulators and government itself. Very difficult decisions must be made and made quickly if the present decline is to be reversed. It is in the interest of all Irish people that the correct decisions be made now. However, those decisions must be fair and just. The bailout agreement is n neither fair nor just.
Social Justice Ireland believes that:
- Ireland is in an extraordinarily precarious position as it seeks to meet the requirements of the EU/IMF bailout programme.
- Those who are poor and/or vulnerable are bearing an inordinate part of the burden of restructuring which, in practice, is leading to their being dispossessed as their resources (financial and services) are being appropriated to pay those who took risks, gambled their resources, lost and are now to be fully re-paid.
- This process may be legal but it is profoundly immoral. It is a process which is securing and protecting the position and resources of those who are rich while taking away even the little they have from those who are poor, vulnerable and on the margin. It should not be allowed to continue.
- The bailout programme should be re-negotiated. This re-negotiation should lead to an outcome:
The need to address Ireland’s own budget imbalances is fully recognised by Social Justice Ireland. We have, in fact, long urged Government to address these issues and we have made a wide range of proposals outlining how we believe this could be done while protecting people who are poor and/or vulnerable. We recognise that this issue still remains to be addressed and should be given major priority.
The Government’s decision to take on the debts of all the banks creates a much more difficult situation that goes far beyond addressing budget imbalances. This bank debt is not sovereign debt. Yet Ireland’s Government has accepted that the debts incurred following the reckless actions of greedy bankers, incompetent regulators, reckless developers and others should be borne by Irish citizens, many of whom had no hand, act or part in the actions taken and who did not benefit from them in any way.
The Government’s Four-Year National Recovery Plan and the EU/IMF bailout documents spell out the details of how these powerful institutions have decided Irish citizens will pay. The Community and Voluntary Pillar members have major questions concerning the viability of either of these plans in their current form. Issues of concern include:
1. The scale and pace of the adjustment being sought is such that it is seriously damaging the economy. More than €14bn was taken out of the economy as a result of adjustments in the period mid-2008 to 2010. Budget 2011 plans to take out a further €6bn. Another €9bn is to be taken out in the 2012-2014 period. The total impact of these expenditure cuts and tax increases will be close to €30bn over a five and a half year period. This level of deliberate contraction is unprecedented. It has already damaged the economy and is likely to continue doing so in the period ahead. In turn this will cast serious doubts on the Government’s economic outlook for the years ahead. For example GDP is forecast by government to grow by 1.7% in 2011. However, in the same period domestic demand is set to remain static while investment and government expenditure are set to fall by 5.9% and 3.1% respectively. While exports are set to grow, both employment and unemployment are predicted to fall in 2011! The unacknowledged reality is that for this scenario to be delivered there will have to be a high level of involuntary emigration. Even then it will be interesting to see if the numbers add up at the end of the year. The Government’s growth forecast for 2011 is greater than the forecast for Ireland provided by the EU Commission, the OECD and Reuters Consensus. Failure to achieve the projected growth rate will produce further pressures with the need to take even more out of the economy in the following period if the EU/IMF targets are to be met.
2. Seeking to achieve two thirds of the adjustment through expenditure cuts rather than tax increases is wrong in a country where the total tax-take is one of the lowest in the western world. The Government’s overall approach has been to achieve two-thirds of adjustments by 2014 through cuts and one third through tax increases. They claim that it is acknowledged that this approach has less negative economic implications. But this fails to recognise that Ireland’s total tax-take as a percentage of GDP is one of the lowest in the EU. If Ireland were to bring its total tax-take up the 34.9% of GDP it would still be a low-tax economy as assessed by Eurostat. Based on the figures in the Four-Year Plan, raising the tax-take to 34.9% of GDP would imply that by 2015 government would be collecting €66bn in total taxation revenue (current taxes + PRSI + local government charges) – almost €18bn more than in 2011. Reaching such a figure would result in Ireland continuing to be a low-tax economy; but it would also assist in providing a realistic and sustainable basis for government to run the country.
3. The impacts of the adjustments to date have had far more negative effects on people who are poor, vulnerable, on the margin. Some analysis and much commentary in the national media in recent months has sought to portray what Government is doing as fair saying that the ‘hit’ taken by better-off people is higher in percentage terms and in cash terms than the hit being taken by those who are poor. This claim is based on sophistry, not on clear analysis of what is happening. It fails to recognise that taking €10 a week from a single poor person on social welfare has far greater impact on that person than taking €100 a week from a middle-income person or taking €1,000 a week from a very wealthy person. While the percentage loss to the poorest is lower the real impact of that loss is far more profound when one is already at risk of poverty. This is especially clear where the working poor are concerned. The minimum wage has been reduced. The threshold for entering the tax net has been lowered. Child benefit has been reduced. A Universal Social Charge has been introduced. Charges have been introduced or increased on a wide range of services including school buses for example. The cumulative effect of all of these adjustments may be relatively small in percentage terms but are devastating in real terms on the life capacity of the working poor.
A further issue of concern in this context has been the claim by Government ministers and others over the past few months that it is okay to reduce welfare rates because they have risen dramatically since 2000. These assessments miss one vital point – yes, it is true that welfare rates rose since 2005 but that increase followed a period, where the living standards of people in Irish society had improved rapidly while welfare payments had barely changed.
Comparing the poverty rates among different groups of people in 1994 and 2001 is most revealing in this regard.
The huge rises in poverty rates show that these groups had been left behind as Ireland’s income grew. Subsequently welfare payments did increase, but this was merely catching up so that recipients could enjoy basic living standards. Government decisions to reduce these welfare rates now are based on a deeply flawed analysis that ignores the historical context.
4. The adjustments fail to provide for the employment growth and support that is essential if Ireland is to emerge from this series of crises. The background information provided in Budget 2011 shows that Government expects employment to fall by 0.2% in 2011 and rising by 1.3% in 2012. This contrasts with the more pessimistic forecasts provided by the European Commission (a fall of 0.8% in 2011 and a rise of 0.6% in 2012). Government’s forecast for unemployment is also more optimistic than the EU (13.2% v. 13.5% in 2011; 12.0% v. 12.7% in 2012). The Government’s Four-Year Plan forecasts unemployment to fall to 9.75% in 2014 a figure that is also more optimistic than other forecasts.
The reality is that while the scale of the economic adjustment is very large by national and international standards no investment of substance has been provided for either job creation or employment support. If economic growth is nearer to the figures suggested by the EU and the ESRI, then the Government’s taxation revenue projections are unlikely to hold up and the deficit facing the economy will be even greater than projected. This in turn will lead to more adjustments and an ever-deepening spiral of destruction.
Overall Social Justice Ireland believes the scale of adjustment is too severe, the pace of adjustment is too fast, the distribution of the impact is unjust, and the negative impact it will have on Ireland’s potential to recover is excessive. A smaller adjustment accompanied by a more realistic national recovery plan, to reach the 3% borrowing target by, say 2016, would be a better option. We strongly urge the incoming Government to give top priority during its initial months in office to addressing these issues in a fair and just manner.
The full text of the revised Bailout agreement with the IMF/ECB/EC may be accessed here. This revised version was published following completion of the quarterly review for the end of the first quarter of 2011.
The review andd the ratification process will be completed by:
The ‘troika’ has been told there are serious questions concerning their credibility on the economy and the vulnerable. At a meeting in Dublin with the ‘Troika’ (European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission) today, Social Justice Ireland argued that:
(1) Ireland’s medium-term targets on growth and related issues are not credible;
(2) Without major adjustment to the terms of the Agreement with the ‘troika’ there will be little economic growth or employment creation and Ireland’s situation will not improve; and
(3) The Irish Government continues to ignore the ‘troika’ position that the vulnerable must be protected in the decisions Government takes particularly in a budgetary context.
The following were some of the points Social Justice Ireland made in the course of this meeting:
o Economic growth is very sluggish and not reaching the forecast targets.
o Jobs are not being created on the scale required. A further fall in the numbers employed is forecast for 2012.
o Unemployment is not falling at any significant rate. A slight reduction is forecast for 2012 but it completely based on rising emigration, not on jobs being accessed by those who are unemployed.
o Finance is not available on the scale required for small and medium enterprises.
o Essential services are being reduced to such an extent that the health and wellbeing of citizens is being put at risk.
o Despite the fact that the poverty line fell by more than 10% in a single year the proportion of the population in poverty rose, irrespective of how it is measured.
o The Community and Voluntary sector, often the place of last resort for many vulnerable people, has seen a huge increase in demand for its services. At the same time its funding has been reduced dramatically.
Social Justice Ireland also stated that:
Since 2008 successive Governments have pursued an austerity policy which has included deficit-cutting, lower spending, a reduction in the benefits and public services provided by the State coupled with increases in taxes but not on the corporate sector. This austerity approach is not working.


A new campaigning network of local and global justice organisations, Debt Justice Action, has called on the government to stop paying the debts of the former Anglo Irish Bank / Irish Nationwide Building Society (INBS). The campaign group – encompassing a strong and unique coalition of representatives from the trade union, community, faith-based, global justice, environmental and academic sectors – argues that the debts of these now state-owned institutions are not the responsibility of people in Ireland. Their new campaign – Anglo: Not Our Debt – is calling for the suspension of Anglo/INBS repayments as a first step towards renegotiation and writedown of this unjust debt. The bulk of the re-payments are government issued “promissory notes” – a promise to pay money in future – to Anglo/INBS which will cost Ireland over €30 billion during the next 20 years.
The campaigners assure people that the suspension of Anglo payments would not spread contagion through the European financial system as most of the Anglo debt is owed to central banks and Anglo is an isolated problem from the so-called ‘pillar’ Irish banks.
The campaign is calling on the government to open negotiations with the Irish and European Central Banks, who bear co-responsibility with the Irish government and the Anglo bankers for the creation of the unjust Anglo debt. The campaign proposes that all payments to Anglo creditors should be suspended pending negotiations until a write down of the debt is agreed.
For further information and updates check www.notourdebt.ie
The global economy is in a dangerous new phase according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook published September 20, 2011, the IMF states that global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. This slowdown will make it even more unlikely that Ireland’s Bailout Agreement targets will be achieved.
The World Economic Outlook’s main conclusions include:
These forecasts are in line with what Social Justice Ireland has been pointing out for some time. They will result in failure to achieve the Bailout Agreement’s targets on a range of fronts. In its meeting with the IMF/ECB/EC troika on July 11, 2011 Social Justice Ireland pointed out that to date the Bailout Agreement:
Conditions are being honoured and benchmarks on a wide range of issues are being met by the Irish Government and Ireland’s citizens.
· Benchmarks on banks and fiscal issues set out in the Memorandum of Understanding are being met.
However, the promised outcomes are not materialising:
o Economic growth is not reaching the forecast targets.
o Jobs are not being created on the scale required.
o Unemployment is not falling at the rate envisaged.
o Finance is not available on the scale required for small and medium enterprises.
o Essential services are being reduced to such an extent that the health and wellbeing of citizens is being put at risk.
o The Community and Voluntary sector, often the place of last resort for many vulnerable people, has seen a huge increase in demand for its services. At the same time its funding has been reduced dramatically.
o In reality the Bailout Agreement is dispossessing poor and vulnerable people of their meagre resources to re-pay those banks, financial institutions and others, who gambled recklessly, invested unwisely, were paid premium interest rates to do so but lost their gamble.
Ireland is now facing a situation which raises questions in a range of areas.
According to the IMF global economic recovery is slowing with world growth projected to be 4% in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5% in 2010.
And even this lowered projection counts on a lot going well.
The IMF had foreseen a slowdown this year after strong growth in 2010 as fiscal stimulus packages in response to the crisis wound down. But a barrage of economic shocks in 2011 combined with other factors to produce a worse than anticipated outcome.
The IMF report says strong and coordinated action is necessary to avert a decade of lost growth in the advanced economies. It concludes that strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and to reduce the risks. Only if governments move decisively on fiscal policy, financial repairs, and external rebalancing, can we hope for stronger and more robust recovery according to the IMF.
The IMF Global Outlook Report, September 2011 may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland’s presentation to the IMF/ECB/EC troika may be accessed here:
The IMF's own review of Ireland's situation sets out the goals to be achieved on Government borrowing by 2015. It states that if the current projections are not achieved then "the savings committed will be delivered, if necessary through fallback options in relation to public sector wages and primary social welfare rates". Social Justice Ireland rejects this approach and continues to point out that alternative approaches are available to Government. Reductions in social welfare rates or in the incomes of 'working poor' households are unjust, unfair and unnecessary.
Social Justice Ireland's briefing to the IMF/ECB/EC 'troika' in October 2011 set out an alternative approach which would protect poor and vulnerable people while achieving the reductions in borrowing required by the Bailout in its present form. This Briefing may be accessed here.
The latest IMF Report acknowledges that problems in the Eurozone are posing a serious threat to Ireland’s efforts to stabilise its debt burden and return to healthy economic growth.
In its report on the Irish economy published December 20, 2011, the IMF cut its forecast for economic growth in Ireland in 2012 from 1.9 per cent to 1 per cent, and said that the downside risks to growth had increased.
The ‘troika’ has been told that the reduction in Ireland’s borrowing in 2012 and subsequent years should be achieved by increasing taxation (but not income tax) by €2 for every €1 reduction in funding of public services. At a meeting in Dublin with the ‘Troika’ (European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission) on Monday, October 17, 2011, Social Justice Ireland argued that persisting with the approach followed in recent Budgets would further seriously damage Ireland’s poorest and most vulnerable people and undermine the social infrastructure supporting delivery of the country’s services. According to Social Justice Ireland: “The approach of recent years has provided short term gain by reducing borrowing; but it has also spread the burden of adjustment very unjustly with those who can least afford to pay being targeted in a most unfair manner. This situation is unjust and must change. Following Social Justice Ireland’s proposed approach would still leave Ireland a low tax country but with a fairer tax system.”
Social Justice Ireland's Briefing document for the troika contained a fully-costed series of proposals that would achieve this outcome in Budget 2012.
The full text of the Briefing may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland also strongly urged the ‘troika’ to accept that €3.6bn in adjustments in 2012 was sufficient. Seeking an even greater adjustment would make a bad situation worse. Social Justice Ireland pointed out that:
Seeking an adjustment greater than €3.6bn would make this situation even worse according to Social Justice Ireland. They pointed out to the ‘troika’ that the adjustments already being imposed would require the economy to record Celtic Tiger growth rates to have any prospect of recovery, job creation etc. This is not credible given where Ireland and the EU/World economy are currently and are likely to be in the years immediately ahead.
This is simply not credible according to Social Justice Ireland.
Social Justice Ireland went on to claim that the Bailout Agreement is a process which in reality is dispossessing poor and vulnerable people of their meagre resources so as to re-pay those banks, financial institutions and others who gambled recklessly, invested unwisely and were paid premium interest rates to do so but lost their gamble. The Social Justice Ireland delegation told the ‘troika’ that the Memorandum of Understanding should be amended to ensure its conditions achieve economic growth and financial stability while securing REAL protection of poor and vulnerable people.
According to Social Justice Ireland in precarious times such as these a country, a government, a society or an international institution defines itself by the cuts it makes, the people it protects, its effectiveness on economic growth/jobs, its actions on public services and the values underpinning its choices. Using this yardstick, the ECB, the IMF and the European Commission have on balance acted in the interests of the wealthy and the strong while seriously damaging those who are poor and vulnerable.”
The ‘troika’ statement that the most vulnerable in society should be protected is very welcome. So too is their statement that the ‘troika’ are committed to helping those who need help.
In its meeting with the ‘troika’ on Monday last Social Justice Ireland presented detailed evidence which showed that the vulnerable had been very negatively impacted on by some of the provisions of Budget 2012. In some cases the most vulnerable had taken the largest ‘hit’ from some of the Budget’s initiatives.
Social Justice Ireland also pointed out that while the ‘troika’s had stated that ‘Government should be guided in its decision-making by the principle of protecting the vulnerable’ this principle is not being heeded. Government has made a range of decisions that seriously damage Ireland’s most vulnerable people and place a disproportionate burden on their shoulders. Consequently, Social Justice Ireland strongly urged the IMF/ECB/EC troika to include these commitments on protecting the vulnerable and on prioritising unemployment within the text of the Memorandum of Understanding.
Social Justice Ireland met the IMF/ECB/EC 'troika' on Monday, October 17, 2011. We presented them with a Briefing document setting out a fully-costed set of proposals which would see the terms of the Bailout Agreement met but which would ensure that poor and vulnerable people were not further burdened.
Material on the Banking Crisis and NAMA is available here.
Documentation regarding the Bank Guarantee, forwarded to the Oireachtas Committee on Public Accounts by the Department of Finance
15 July 2010 can be accessed here
The full text of the Honohan Report on the Irish Banking Crisis Regulatory and Financial Stability Policy can be accessed here.
The Regling Watson Preliminary Report on the Sources of Ireland's Banking Crisis can be accessed here.
Full text of The Regling-Watson Report - Preliminary Report into Ireland's Banking Crisis
The European banking Federation has published facts and figures on Europe's banks. The full text may be accessed here.
This article was written by Professor Karl Whelan of UCD and published in Business and Finance November 2011. The article may be accessed at Business and Finance site here.
Debates about burning bondholders who have already been repaid misses the point. It is all about promissory notes, writes Karl Whelan.
1. Ireland’s Banks Stress Tested: The Financial Measures Programme Report, which details the outcome of the review of the capital and funding assessments of domestic Irish banks (stress test) published on Thursday 31st March 2011 may be accessed here.
2. The statement by Ireland’s Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan, TD, on the follow-up to the stress testing of Ireland’s banks may be accessed here.
3. A presentation outlining some of the economic and fiscal implications of the Government's decisions on restructuring Ireland's banking system may be accessed here.
4. Some questions and answers concerning the banking restructuring prepared by the Department of Finance may be accessed here.
The full text of the 172-page Report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector in Ireland was published on April 20, 2011.
So too was a 6-page note from the Department of Finance which includes all the recommendations contained in the Report. The full text of both are available below.
The full 172-page text of the Report of the Commission of Investigation into the Bannking Sector in Ireland may be accessed here.
The full text of the Department of Finance's 6-page note on the Report of the Commission of Investigation into the Banking Sector in Ireland, which contains all the Report's findings, may be accessed here.
Governments must break the link between states and their banks according to Ajai Chopra, Deputy Director, European Department, International Monetary Fund, and leader of the 'troika' currently overseeing Ireland's Bailout Agreement with the IMF, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. In a remarkable presentation at the Dublin Economic Workshop in Kenmare on October 15, 2011, he outlined a position that is remarkably similar to that proposed and advocated by Social Justice Ireland for almost three years.
Chopra went on to state that in the event of losses being incured by banks then these losses should be borne "first, by shareholders and holders of equity-like instruments, and second by uninsured creditors, including senior creditors". Chopra went further and argued that "to minimize costs to taxpayers, the new resolution system should be pre-financed by the industry as much as possible, potentially through the EU deposit insurance scheme " which he proposed in his presentation.
The full text of Ajai Chopra's presentation may be accessed here.
NCB have published a very interesting analysis of the future for Irish bank senior bondholders. It shows there are almost €75bn in bonds held currently by the Irish banking system. A substantial proportion of these (almost €25bn) are either subordinated or unsecured. The NCB analysis points out that the Irish banks would be illiquid and insolvent if it were not for the Irish State and Irish Cental Bank. It goes on to argue that:
The analysis goes on to point out that the European Central Bank does not want senior bondholders touched. Where does this leave the Irish Government? The analysis sets out a number of options. It concludes that the most likely outcomes will involve the following:
An article by financial journalist Michael Lewis in next month’s Vanity Fair argues that Ireland will have no choice but to default on the private debt (i.e. not sovereign debt). Lewis is well known for writing on Greece and Iceland and their financial crises. He argues strongly against the claim that Ireland has no choice but to repay the debts run up by gambling bankers and speculators.
As Ireland faces major decisions on whether or not to extend the €450bn bank guarantee there is growing questioning of the danger of moral hazard in this process. Moral hazard is the situation in which an individual, or institution or whatever, is insulated from risk while others pay the negative consequences of the risk. In such a situation those insulated from risk have a tendency or an incentive to behave inappropriately. Many argue this is what happened to Ireland’s banks in recent years and are concerned that the same may happen again in the future if much more serious institutional safeguards are not put into place.
This paper was presented by ;Philippe Van Parijs to the closing session of the 9th BIEN Congress in the ILO office in Geneva on September 14, 2002.
The full text may be accessed here.
A basic income is an income unconditionally granted to all on an individual basis, without means test or work requirement. It is a form of minimum income guarantee that differs from those that now exist in various European countries in three important ways:
"...the Basic Income system studied would have a substantial impact on the distribution of income in Ireland in that, compared with conventional options, it would on average improve the incomes of 70% of households in the bottom four income deciles ...and raise more than half of those who would be below the 40% poverty line under conventional options above this line."
Debate on basic income has focused mainly on 'what' and 'why'; this paper deals mainly with 'how', where' and 'when'. Our involvement in the ongoing work of proposing the introduction of a basic income system and developing a viable model for implementation has been predicated on the view that basic income is worthwhile because it fulfils certain principles. Various tax reforms are under consideration in Ireland, including basic income and refundable tax credits; these can lead to identical outcomes for citizens in terms of net incomes. In addition, there are other pathways towards basic income. Accordingly, progress towards basic income is best considered across a number of fronts.
A great deal has been written on Basic Income in recent years and the volume of that writing appears to be growing substantially. Much of what has been written, however, has focused on responding to the questions 'What is Basic Income?' and 'Why should a Basic Income system be introduced?' Far less has been written to address key questions that are constantly raised by policy makers and others once they become aware of basic income and seek either to promote or reject it as a policy option. These questions include
This paper is about a little 'why' and more 'how' 'when' and 'where'
First, a little on the question 'why?' Basic Income is not an end in itself. Rather, we support the introduction of a full Basic Income system because it is the best way we know to fulfil certain principles.
There are eight principles that we believe should guide any tax/welfare system.
The first principle we identify is that nature and its resources are for the benefit of all. No one should be excluded from participating in, and benefiting from, economic growth.
The second principle we identify is adequacy. All citizens have a right to an income sufficient to live life with basic dignity. To be adequate payments must prevent income poverty in the contemporary context of a particular society. In its National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS), the Irish government gave the following definition of poverty.
People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living which is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally. As a result of inadequate income and resources people may be excluded and marginalised from participating in activities which are considered the norm for other people in society.
A minimum income guarantee should be set at a poverty line as defined by NAPS.
The third principle we identify is that of guarantee. Knowing the level at which an adequate income should be set is not enough. This income level should be guaranteed. The only way this can be done is to place the guarantee on a statutory basis. Only then can we be sure that every citizen will receive an adequate income. It is important to note that having such a guarantee does not mean that all the income would have to come from the State. It could, for example, in whole or in part, come from payment for a job. The statutory guarantee would ensure that unemployed people and those in low-paid employment would be assured of a minimum income which was adequate to live with dignity.
The fourth principle we identify is that the adequate income must be provided on a penalty-free basis. Some welfare systems are experienced as degrading by many recipients. Some tax and welfare systems are linked in such a way that poverty traps abound and many unemployed people face income losses if they take up a job. An adequate income guarantee system should ensure that all receive the adequate income without encountering these or other penalties.
Our fifth principle concerns equity and equality. This means that the system should promote both horizontal and vertical equity. It would also include gender equity. This, in practice, would mean that inequalities in income would be reduced and resources transferred to ensure that everyone received the basic payment to which they were entitled. It would also involve an equitable sharing of the costs of such a system. Within this principle it would also follow that identical needs and circumstances should be dealt with identically.
The sixth principle we identify concerns efficiency. When we speak of efficiency here, we are not referring to economic efficiency alone. Nor do we believe that an adequate income guarantee system has to provide conditions that produce optimal growth. Rather, we believe that this system should have a positive impact, relative to the status quo, on both the situation of the worst-off in society and on the socio-economic situation as a whole.
The seventh principle concerns simplicity. As far as possible an adequate income system should be simple to understand and to administer. Many social welfare systems are complex. This complexity leads to increased administrative costs, constant confusion, delays and (unintended) victimisation. In practice, many people fail to claim their full entitlements. It should not be beyond the capacity of society to devise a simpler system that would also follow the principles listed here.
The eighth principle we propose concerns freedom. We believe that an adequate income guarantee system should promote autonomy and reduce dependency. The present system forces many people into a dependency situation. For example, some social welfare systems force people to do nothing as a condition of receiving their payment. This conditionality creates a dependency culture. In the case of couples receiving social welfare payments one is treated as a "dependent" of the other. In most welfare systems people in receipt of payments lose benefits if they earn money through work, some even lose if they take up study. This reduces their autonomy. A more progressive system is required which encourages and promotes the involvement of every person in the social, economic, political and cultural life of the society.
The principles outlined above were developed to help in assessing whether or not a particular proposal was likely to be acceptable and which, among competing proposals, would be most acceptable.
In our work on Basic Income we have always been guided by the core concern of developing an income distribution system that would ensure every person in society had sufficient income to live life with dignity. For us, this has been a core justice issue that was not being given appropriate priority in most economic and political arenas. We were also very attracted to a Basic Income approach because it addressed the huge changes emerging in the labour market and recognised the critical distinction between work and employment. Too often, modern economic and political thinking tended to equate these two concepts and see them as identical. To us it was clear that very large numbers of people were doing a great amount of work every day and this work was not recognised as employment. One consequence of this approach was that much work was/is not valued as an essential component of the progress of society. We have written extensively in other publications on the reasons why we believe policy makers should adopt a Basic Income approach. (1)
At all times we have been very conscious of the social, economic, political and cultural terrain within which we sought the introduction of a Basic Income system. We recognised that introducing a Basic Income system would demand huge transformation in this terrain. We have constantly insisted that we should not allow "the best to be the enemy of the good". We were prepared to consider staging posts along the way to a destination of a full Basic Income system. We have always been prepared to look at a wide range of pathways along which this project could travel before arriving at its final destination.
There are four main pathways to the introduction of a Basic Income system. These are:
The first of these is the least likely. It would demand a huge change that most, if not all, political systems would be afraid to risk. Insisting on an 'all at once' approach, in our experience, simply frightens politicians and results in the building of substantial, and totally unnecessary, resistance to even looking at or considering a Basic Income system.
Looking at the other three approaches, however, it appears to us that these are viable, individually or in tandem, as pathways to the introduction of a Basic Income system. In their study of the Irish system Charles M.A.Clark and John Healy (2) opted for a step by step approach as the smoothest pathway.
It is important to recognise and acknowledge that suitably configured refundable tax credits and negative income tax can deliver an identical net income to every citizen as Basic Income. Consequently, we believe that Basic Income can be viewed both as an objective in itself and as a criterion for assessing progress towards the most desired destination.
It makes no practical sense to simply insist on the superiority of Basic Income over all other systems while ignoring the substantial similarity between Basic Income, Negative Income Tax and Refundable Tax Credits.
Developments in Ireland are interesting in this regard. Sean Ward (1998) has provided a comprehensive overview of how the debate in Ireland progressed up to 1998. We will not repeat that here.
The need for integrating the tax and welfare systems has been widely acknowledged for a number of decades. Competing proposals on how to progress such integration have been advocated and discussed. CORI has been to the forefront in advocating the introduction of a Basic Income system.
In the last few years there have been a number of very interesting and useful developments in this area. Among these have been:
What we are witnessing here is a very vibrant, ongoing debate about the shape and integration of the tax and welfare systems. This debate involves Government, civil servants, the Revenue Commissioners (who are responsible for collecting tax), academics and all four pillars of social partners (employers, trade unions, farmers and the community and voluntary pillar).
Substantial changes have been introduced that can be seen as very progressive from a Basic Income perspective. Principal among these has been the introduction of a tax credits system for all income tax payers. All income tax payers now have the same tax credit. Consequently, increasing tax credits in the annual budget, combined with standard rating of all discretionary tax allowances, provides government, at present, with a means of achieving greater equity among the top two-thirds of households in income terms. This is far closer to the Basic Income ideal than the previous tax-free allowance system that gave larger benefits to those with higher incomes. Chart 1 shows the impact on income distribution if the Irish government increased the current tax credit by IR£100 a year in its next budget. It is clear that, once a person has sufficient income to benefit fully from such an increase, all income groups benefit equally.
However, equity between the low-paid and better off would require not only that the value of tax credits be increased but also that tax credits be made 'refundable'. When the tax credit is not refundable those with incomes so low that their tax bill is lower than the value of the tax credit do not benefit from any increase in the value of that tax credit. This is clearly seen in Chart 1 where couples with low incomes do not benefit from the increase of IR£100 illustrated in the example provided.
When tax credits are refundable those whose tax bills are less than the credit receive a payment equal to the difference. The main beneficiaries of refundable tax credits would be low-paid employees. This is illustrated in Chart 2 where we show the impacts if the current tax credit in Ireland were made refundable. All the benefit goes to those on low incomes.
The major advantage of making tax credits refundable would be in addressing the disincentives currently associated with low paid employment. If refundable tax credits were introduced, subsequent increases in the level of the tax credit would then be of equal value to all employees.
The commitment to examine what impact refundable tax credits would have, and the work currently being undertaken in this area, mark significant progress towards addressing the major weakness we identified in the current system. They also move the present tax and welfare system closer to a Basic Income system.
With a refundable tax credit system in place every adult with a job would, in effect, gain the full value of a tax credit. Almost every other adult in the country i.e. adults without a job, are entitled to a social welfare payment. All that is required is to designate a part of the social welfare payment equivalent to the tax credit as a tax credit and reduce the social welfare payment accordingly. Then we have a situation where everyone has an effective tax credit. The simplest way to administer this refundable tax credit system would be to pay it as a Basic Income.
Every child in the country already has a tax-free child benefit payment paid to its parents or carers. This, in effect, is a Basic Income.
Consequently, the path currently being followed in Ireland could be transformed, rather easily, into a Basic Income system. (The issue of adequacy is a separate issue we address later in this paper.)
Involvement in advocacy for Basic Income requires acknowledgement of progress where that occurs. It also requires criticism of backward steps (such as widening the income gaps between rich and poor). Consequently, ongoing analysis and critique of policy proposals and budgetary action is required. In Ireland CORI does this analysis on an annual basis. Each year we produce a socio-economic review that analyses and critiques the various policy proposals being advocated in the public arena and/or being considered by government. We also update the Basic Income numbers (e.g. payment levels, tax rates etc.). Each year we also publish a detailed analysis and critique of the government's budget as soon as it has been announced. Within this process we highlight the contrast between the impact of government's actions and the impact of introducing a Basic Income system. In all of this work we take great care to acknowledge progress as well as to challenge regression.
We believe that progress towards substantial Refundable Tax Credits or Negative Income Tax, with the removal of discretionary tax breaks, constitutes progress towards Basic Income. Progress along these lines leads to fulfilment of the principles that Basic Income serves and that we have identified earlier in this paper. Consequently we welcome such developments and acknowledge them as progress.
If/when substantial Refundable Tax Credits or Negative Income Tax has been achieved the switch to BI will be easy. The merits of the switch will be considered under headings such as dignity, customer service, administration costs and simplicity.
In the ongoing discussions, debates and advocacy of Basic Income it is important to keep in mind that work is required on different fronts. The economics of Basic Income must be constantly assessed. This has both macro and micro dimensions - ranging from its impact on the labour market or migration patterns to the levels at which payments are made and the tax rate it requires or the tax base on which it is to be developed. Work at this level is fundamental and must be constantly pursued. Otherwise the argument may be lost because its viability in economic terms may not be obvious at first glance. For us the issue of adequacy is crucial. Consequently, we have constantly argued that the level at which the Basic Income payments are set for adults and children need not be very high but should be sufficient to enable people live life with basic dignity. This position must also be argued and justified if it is to be accepted eventually.
The politics of Basic Income is another dimension that must be constantly reviewed. A recent study for the Citizens Income Study Centre in the UK, and co-sponsored by CORI, (Jordan et al, 2000) analysed the political cultures of the UK and Ireland on the issue of tax-benefit reform and their implications for the introduction of Basic Income. It took a different approach to that pursued by CORI in Ireland. It sought to persuade the Labour Party in the UK that Basic Income is implicit in various statements of the party's objectives. CORI, by contrast, has sought to present the feasibility, desirability and impact of introducing a Basic Income system in Ireland. Different political situations require different responses. A review of the UK study in the Financial Times engaged with the study's approach in a positive way, which is interesting in this context. In Ireland there is an open attitude to Basic Income, which is recognised in the UK study referred to above. CORI has sought to facilitate analysis and debate in the Irish context and continues to do so with some success in terms of keeping Basic Income on the Irish political agenda.
The cultural arguments for Basic Income also require constant attention. This dimension is crucial because the economic arguments may be won but the political system may reject the introduction of a Basic Income system because it is perceived as being at odds with values such as efficiency, personal responsibility, participation etc. In our view Basic Income supports each of these values. It also supports a range of other values that are considered as important in much of the debate about the core culture of a modern society. This may not be obvious, however, and must be argued and pursued constantly.
Finally, the social dimension of introducing a Basic Income system must also be pursued. Some have argued against it because it would create new exclusions. Others have suggested that it would allow the lazy to benefit at the expense of others. We don't believe either of these suggestions is true. However, the case has to be constantly argued and presented in a way that makes sense to the wider society. Otherwise the overall argument may well be lost. In this context the issue of adequacy arises again. If the payments levels are too low they will not ensure that everyone has sufficient income to live life with basic dignity. If this were to happen then the Basic Income system would fail to meet the requirements of at least one of the guiding principles already identified in this paper, principles we believe should guide any tax/welfare system.
CORI's involvement with Basic Income has been predicated on the view that Basic Income is a worthwhile objective to fulfil certain principles. Various tax reforms are under consideration in Ireland, including Basic Income and refundable tax credits. These can lead to identical outcomes for people in terms of net incomes. In addition, there are other pathways towards Basic Income. These have to be presented, analysed and discussed if they are to be engaged with and acted upon. Likewise, the economic, political, cultural and social dimensions of introducing a Basic Income system must be presented, analysed and discussed if this approach is to be adopted. Accordingly, progress towards Basic Income is best considered across a number of fronts
Callan, Tim, Cathal O'Donoghue and Ciaran O'Neill (1994), Analysis of Basic Income Schemes for Ireland, Dublin: ESRI.
Callan, Tim, B. Nolan, B.J. Whelan, C.T. Whelan and J. Williams (1996), Poverty in the 1990s: Evidence from the 1994 Living in Ireland Survey, Dublin: Oak Tree Press.
Clark, Charles M.A., and Catherine Kavanagh (1995), "Basic Income and the Irish Worker" in Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy (eds.), An Adequate Income Guarantee for All, Dublin: CORI.
Clark, Charles M.A., and John Healy (1997a), Pathways to a Basic Income, Dublin: CORI.
CORI (1994), Tackling Poverty, Unemployment and Exclusion: A Moment of Great Opportunity, Dublin: CORI.
CORI (1995), Ireland for All, Dublin: CORI.
CORI ((1998) Priorities for Progress, Dublin: CORI.
Dowling, Brendan (1977), Integrated Approaches to Personal Income Taxes and Transfers, Dublin: National Economic and Social Council.
Healy, Sean and Brigid Reynolds (1994). "Arguing for an Adequate Income Guarantee" in Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy (eds.), Towards an Adequate Income for All, Dublin: CORI.
Healy, Sean and Brigid Reynolds (1995). "An Adequate Income Guarantee for All" in Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy (eds.), An Adequate Income Guarantee for All, Dublin: CORI.
Honohan, Patrick (1987), "A Radical Reform of Social Welfare and Income Tax Evaluated", Administration, Vol. 35, No. 1.
Jordan, Bill, Phil Agulnik, Duncan Burbidge and Stuart Duffin, (2000) Stumbling Towards Basic Income, London: Citizens Income Study Centre.
Partnership 2000 for Inclusion, Employment and Competitiveness (1996), Dublin: Stationary Office.
Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (2000), Dublin: Stationary Office.
Report of the Commission on Social Welfare (1986), Dublin: Stationery office.
Report of the Working Group on the Integration of the Tax and Social Welfare Systems, (1996), Dublin: Stationary Office.
Reynolds, Brigid and Sean Healy (eds.) (1994), Towards an Adequate Income for All, Dublin: CORI.
Reynolds, Brigid and Sean Healy (eds.) (1995), An Adequate Income Guarantee for All: Desirability, Viability, Impact, Dublin: CORI.
Ward, Seán (1994), "A Basic Income System for Ireland" in Brigid Reynolds and Seán Healy (eds.), Towards an Adequate Income for all, Dublin: CORI.
Ward, Sean (1998), "Basic Income" in Sean Healy and Brigid Reynolds (eds.), Social Policy in Ireland, Dublin: Oak Tree Press.
(1) Among our publications addressing this issue are New Frontiers for Full Citizenship (1993), Towards an Adequate Income For All (1994), An Adequate Income Guarantee For All: Desirability, Viability, Impact. (1995), Surfing the Income Net (19997), Priorities for Progress (1998). Other CORI publications addressing the same issues include Pathways to a Basic Income (1997) by Charles M>A> Clark and John Healy and Basic Income in a 21st Century Economy by Charles M. A. Clark (forthcoming).
(2) Pathways to a Basic Income, (1997), Dublin: CORI.
Basic Income
"...the Basic Income system studied would have a substantial impact on the distribution of income in Ireland in that, compared with conventional options, it would on average improve the incomes of 70% of households in the bottom four income deciles ...and raise more than half of those who would be below the 40% poverty line under conventional options above this line."
Irish Government's Green Paper on Basic Income 4
In September 2002 the Irish Government published a Green Paper on Basic Income. This section of this websit contains a range of items associated with that Green Paper
March 26th, 2001.
The following are the points contained in the CORI Justice Commission statement:
CORI Justice Commission has welcomed the Final Report of the Working Group on Basic Income.
In particular it has welcomed the fact that the Report vindicates CORI Justice Commission's claims that a Basic Income system would have a far more positive impact on reducing poverty than the present tax and welfare systems.
The ESRI study done for the Working Group found that a Basic Income system would have a substantial impact on the distribution of income in Ireland in that, compared with the present tax and welfare system it would:
According to the Report, these impacts would be achieved without any resources additional to those available to 'conventional' options.
The Working Group's Report also found that the tax rate (including PRSI replacement) required to fund Basic Income, based on January 1999 estimates, would be 47%. Since then the economy has grown significantly and the revised rate, based on Revenue Commissioners estimates of the tax base, is 42.7%.
This shows that a Basic Income system is far more effective at tackling poverty and should form part of a comprehensive strategy to totally eliminate income poverty in the years immediately ahead.
Government should now honour its commitment to publish a Green Paper on Basic Income. Implementation of this commitment has been delayed pending receipt of this Working Group's Report. Now that its results are available it should be relatively easy for Government to publish its long-promised Green Paper.
The Report should also be considered by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) as it prepares its study on the medium-term development of the tax and welfare systems. This study was promised as part of the new national agreement, The Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (PPF).
Looking at the 'losers' identified in the Report, there are two key issues that need to be borne in mind:
Over a three-year implementation period of a Basic Income system all the 'losers' would be better off than they are at present. They would simply not gain as much under Basic Income as they would under the present system.
The 'losers' in the bottom four deciles identified in the Report can be easily targeted and compensated through the Social Solidarity Fund that forms part of the Basic Income structure
On the macro-economic aspects the Report itself acknowledges that the findings were very tentative, speculative and hard to quantify. However, it welcomed the Report's conclusion that a basic income system could encourage some people to move from the unofficial economy into regular employment.
For CORI Justice Commission the critical test of any tax and welfare system is its impact on people with lower incomes. While many poor people have benefited from developments of recent years, especially through employment, the fact remains that the gap between poor people and the rest of society has been widened over the past twelve years.
While the proportion of the population described as "consistently poor" has been declining the percentage of households and persons below every income poverty line measured by the ESRI is higher now than it was in 1987. This situation must be reversed immediately. Obviously, the introduction of a Basic Income system would have an immediate and positive impact on those most in need in Irish society.
The choice between a Basic Income system and 'conventional' tax/welfare options is a trade off between greater equity and a risk of lower economic growth versus less equity and less risk to higher economic growth. At a time when there so much concern is expressed about the country's growth rate being unsustainable, the argument in favour of introducing a Basic Income system is further strengthened."
CORI is a Social Partner and was one of the organisations that negotiated and signed the last two national agreements i.e. Partnership 2000 and the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness. It represents more than 135 religious congregations with 12,000 members in 1,400 communities throughout Ireland
April 10, 2001: Text of debate in Dail Eireann (Irish Parliament) on the issue of Basic Income.
This executive summary includes the overview to these studies as published and a summary of the conclusions of the studies prepared by CORI Justice Commission, March 2001.
Partnership 2000 for Inclusion, Employment and Competitiveness provided that:
"A further independent appraisal of the concept of, and full implications of introducing a basic income payment for all citizens will be undertaken, taking into account the work of the ESRI, CORI and the Expert Steering group on the Integration of Tax and Social Welfare and the international research. A broadly based steering group will oversee the study".
In pursuance of this commitment a Steering Group was established under the aegis of the Department of the Taoiseach. The Group was composed of representatives of the Social Partnership Pillars and officials from the relevant Government Departments. Its composition is at Appendix I. The Group met on 10 occasions. The Group agreed Terms of Reference for a study on Basic Income, and these are attached at Appendix II. The elements of the study were commissioned following the normal tendering requirements.
It is important to emphasise at the outset that the P2000 commitment did not refer to, and thus the Steering Group was not considering a specific detailed model of Basic Income for implementation, but rather the implications of a Basic Income approached. Basic Income has been put forward as an approach to improve substantially the distribution of income with particular reference to the lowest income deciles of the population. It is intended to remove unemployment and poverty traps and to simplify the tax/social welfare system. Its proponents argue that it can contribute to the common good by providing citizens with greater liberty to achieve self-fulfilment and contribute to the development of society. The approach has been developed and analysed in several papers. The analysis in this study was based on a set of proposals developed by CORI and agreed by the Group, in order to illustrate the implications of a Basic Income approach.
In addition it should be noted that, in line with the mandate of the Steering Group, this overview of the analysis should not be understood to be an endorsement of any particular specification for a basic income, or indeed, for a basic income scheme itself.
The Steering Group commissioned consultants to undertake analysis in two distinct but inter-related phases. Phase 1 of the study was designed to examine the first round or static effects of the introduction of a Basic Income system in Ireland, without allowing for possible changes in individual behaviour as a result of its introduction.
This part of the study was undertaken by two separate consultants, Professor Charles Clark, St John's University, New York and the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
(a) Professor Clark provided an aggregate analysis of the costing of the basic income scheme, using macro economic statistics, and an analysis of the distributional effects on illustrative households, along the lines of Clark and Healy, 1997.
(b) The ESRI conducted a microsimulation-based analysis of the costs and distributional impact of a basic income on actual families, using the SWITCH tax benefit model based on relevant survey data.
Phase 2 of the study was designed to take account of the dynamic effects and the long-term sustainability of a basic income scheme from a broad economic and social perspective. This phase was carried out by a consortium led by the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The Group's concern was with the broad concept of Basic Income rather than any specific scheme. For the purposes of this study a basic income option was developed for the year 2001, based on information which was available at the time of Budget 1998, i.e. February 1998. The option was developed so that it would have available precisely the same level of exchequer resources as three "conventional" options which were also projected to 2001. The intention behind this equalisation of resources was that the effects of basic income as a system could be compared with "conventional" options.
All of the recent work on basic income that has been carried out under the aegis of CORI has included a Social Solidarity Fund, which permits targeted payments to be made to certain low income groups. Within the above exchequer constraint and in consultation with the ESRI, the Steering Group developed detailed specifications for the disbursement of this Fund and these disbursements were included in the comparisons of basic income with "conventional" options.
The Group did not examine the detailed administrative and eligibility conditions which would be necessary to achieve such targeting, as the analysis was intended to be indicative rather than comprehensive. Consequently, no judgement is made about the viability of these provisions. A number of iterations of a basic income proposals that includes the application of a Social Solidarity Fund were considered by the Group.
(a) Within this framework the rates of payment to be examined were harmonised as between the basic income payment levels and the assumed rates of payment under the social welfare system.
(b) It was assumed, conservatively, that tax cuts of £250 million (on a full year basis) would be made available in each of the years 1999, 2000 and 2001.
(c) It was assume that all farm income supports, which reflect EU policies, would remain in place. The rate of DIRT was set at 24%. A Social Responsibility Tax, which forms part of the proposed basic income structure, was set at 8%.
The Group agreed these technical assumptions for the purposes of the study. Some variants were examined in the research by way of sensitivity analysis. The benchmark scenarios against which the Basic Income approach was compared, were taken to represent a reasonable approach to the structure of tax and social welfare policy, without implying any commitment to the particular set of rates; payments or tax/social welfare structure.
While in retrospect the benchmark scenarios and economic assumptions may seem to have been conservative, these do not invalidate the research. The key point underlying the research is that the structural comparison between Basic Income and the conventional system should be done on a consistent basis and this has been achieved.
The Basic Income scheme studied by the consultants included a Social Solidarity Fund amounting to £387 million, aimed at compensating those who would lose out in a transition to basic income. However, the exact scope of the Social Solidarity Fund had not been specified at the time the studies were initiated.
An initial microsimulation analysis of the Basic Income proposal without a Social Solidarity Fund revealed a substantial number of losers in the bottom four income deciles. The ESRI noted that the aggregate amount earmarked in the proposed fund had the potential to compensate low income losers, if it were sufficiently well targeted.
Following consideration of the draft reports, the Group agreed a possible specification of the Social Solidarity Fund. As with the assumptions in Section 3, the technical specification set out below was agreed by the Steering Group for the purposes of the research study, and does not imply any commitment to these policies or rates of payment. The Group did not examine the detailed administrative and eligibility conditions which would be necessary to achieve such targeting, as the analysis was intended to be indicative rather than comprehensive. Consequently, no judgement is made about the viability of these provisions.
The possible payments agreed were:
The consultants' studies on Phases I and II, which are reproduced in full in this Report, set out the conclusions of their examination.
The brief of the Steering Group was to steer and oversee the study. The Group has not taken any policy position in regard to the various findings and issues contained in the reports. However, the Group considered it useful to point out some key issues which have emerged in the studies. These are contained in the following paragraphs.
(a) Phase I Findings
Phase I entailed a static analysis of the cost and distributional implications of the introduction of a system of basic income in Ireland. Therefore, the two pertinent issues emerging from Phase I relate to
- The tax rate required to finance the basic income proposal and rate of payment under examination.
- The distributional implications for respective income groups within the economy i.e. who would gain or lose out financially under the system being proposed.
The Basic Income payment cited was £74.80 per adult to be indexed over time, (£96 for an elderly person), and that the costs of these hypothetical basic income payment levels would be just over £12 billion, which would need to be funded by either tax or savings on other areas of expenditure. The ESRI calculated that this would require a tax rate of 51.6%. When the social solidarity fund was specified more precisely the required tax rate was closer to 53%. Clark estimated a rate of 47.26%.
The different rates reflect differences in the respective approaches to determining the available tax base, the cost of funding Government services (other than the elements of a basic income system) and the treatment of a Social Solidarity Fund which would compensate those losing out in a transition to basic income. The sensitivity analysis carried out by the ESRI (pages 20-21 of the ESRI phase I study) sets out some of the differences, and yields a tax rate in the range of 2 percentage points lower, or 1 percentage higher, than the original estimate. In the context of the different methodologies, the Group considers that both sets of estimates represent a reasonable indicator of the range of likely tax rates, and that the difference does not invalidate either study.
The parameters supplied to the consultants in February 1998 were rapidly overtaken by the faster than expected economic growth that occurred since then. In 1999 the Steering Group asked the Department of Finance to provide tax base data to enable the consultants to prepare an updated estimate of the required tax rate. The result of this exercise was that a rate of 47.7% would be required in 2001. Further economic growth since 1999 would enable this estimated tax rate to be reduced further. Equally, the tax rates applicable in the conventional benchmark scenarios would also be reduced. Tax reductions significantly in excess of the benchmark assumptions have, of course, been implemented over the past three years.
The additional resources which were calculated to be available for this updated estimate were not included in the income distribution analyses of basic income that were carried out by the two sets of consultants. The reason for this is that the additional resources could be used not just to enhance basic income but equally they could be used to enhance the conventional options. Hence, by using tax rates which they calculated based on the original study parameters, the consultants achieved "like with like" comparisons.
The distributional analysis compares the outcome in 2001 under the basic income system with the outcomes of three conventional options with access to the same resources. This type of analysis is very rigorous. It differs from analyses that are usually carried out of the annual Budget, where pre and post-Budget outcomes are set out side by side; in this usual kind of analysis it is sometimes possible to show that every person gains from a Budget. However, in the analyses that were undertaken for the Steering Group, it is not possible to achieve an outcome where everyone gains. The gains experienced by some people under any option, in relation to an alternative option, must be balanced by losses under this option in relation to the alternative option.
Distributional effects were first analysed by both sets of consultants before the Social Solidarity Fund was distributed. The different methodologies used by consultants to examine the distributional effects yielded somewhat different results.
Clark found that the average household income for all of the bottom 6 deciles would be higher in 2001 than under the conventional system, while average household income in the top 4 deciles would be lower in 2001 than under the conventional policies. Clark also found that over a three year implementation period, average households in every decile would see their disposable incomes rise in absolute terms; under the conventional system, some growth in absolute incomes would also occur.
The ESRI found that on average there were gains for the bottom six income deciles and losses for the top four. This analysis found that families headed by single, widowed, separated or divorced persons, rather than by a couple, accounted for most of the potential losers. Single unemployed, lone parents and others (including those who are ill or disabled, some carers and widows below pension age without children) account for 95% of all potential losers in the bottom four income deciles.
The specification of a Social Solidarity Fund provides a mechanism to compensate losers under the hypothetical scheme. The Group reiterates that these mechanisms are merely indicative, in order to provide a broad view of how such a fund would operate. Therefore, the Group is not commenting on the viability of the proposals made under the Fund.
It should, however, be noted that such a specification under the Social Solidarity Fund reintroduces a form of means testing into the tax/welfare system, and implies retention of significant elements of the administrative costs associated with such a system.
When the Social Solidarity Fund is distributed the ESRI found that the effects on Basic Income in relation to poverty would be as follows:
(b) Phase II Findings
Phase II examined the potential dynamic impact of a basic income system and the long term sustainability of such a scheme, not least having regard to and the free movement of people and capital within the EU. The information derived from Phase I provided a basis for this study.
The second phase of the study was carried out by the ESRI et al. As the Phase I analysis was essentially empirical, it did not allow for behavioural changes in the labour market as a result of a basic income scheme and the impact on economic growth and competitiveness. The Phase II analysis was necessarily more speculative in that it was concerned with possible changes in behaviour of different groups of people consequent on the introduction of basic income. As basic income has not been implemented in any country, the Phase II inquiry sought out relevant evidence to give best judgement on the likely impacts of basic income.
The key issues emerging in the Phase II study are
An assessment of the impact of the proposal on financial work incentives for the potential labour force must consider not only those currently in employment, but also those who are unemployed those who classify themselves as fully engaged in "home duties". Two aspects are considered in relation to financial incentives to take up work - replacement rates and changes in marginal tax rates. For those who are unemployed and in receipt of unemployment assistance or benefit, basic income provides a substantial drop in the incidence of replacement rates over 70%. This provides an improvement in the financial incentive to work for the unemployed.
There is a substantial drop in the incidence of replacement rates over 70% and the proportion of unemployed people facing replacement rates over 80% would fall from 9.1% to 1.5%. there is a significant increase in the number of unemployed facing replacement rates of between 30% and 70%."
For those (almost exclusively women) who classify themselves as "engaged in home duties" replacement rates rise more often than they fall. The incidence of high replacement rates for those in employment is also significant. Married women were seen to be particularly likely to see their replacement rate rise, with one third of married women, currently classified as employees or in home duties, having replacement rates rise by 10 percentage points or more. For many of these, entitlement to a full personal basic income payment would mean their income while not in paid work would be a good deal higher than under the conventional welfare system.
The findings lead to a conclusion that a fall in labour supply is more likely than an increase. The main impact of a change to a basic income scheme was found to be on tax payers with marginal tax rates less than 30% under the conventional system, whose marginal tax rates would rise to about 50%, or more in certain circumstances, under a basic income system. This increase could apply to 57% of taxpayers. Changes in marginal tax rates can affect decisions regarding hours of work, decisions to work overtime, to take on extra hours or to opt for part time work. It should be noted that in a Basic Income system each person receives a tax-free payment from the state. This means that their average tax rate could, and in many cases would, be lower while their marginal tax rate would be higher.
In terms of impact on migration, broadly speaking a basic income scheme was seen to increase the attractiveness of Ireland for low skilled migrants who might depend on such an income, while reducing after-tax income for those nearer the top of the earnings distribution. However, the analysis of the evidence on the sensitivity of migration to financial incentives suggests that the introduction of basic income would in the short term have a very small impact on the net migration flow. It could have a more significant impact on the composition of gross inflows and outflows. However, the entry of poorer countries into the EU could lead to more significant immigration in the longer term.
As far as the informal economy is concerned, a basic income scheme could encourage some people to move from the unofficial economy into regular employment. Quantifying the scale of this effect is problematic, since it is also acknowledged that the incentive to conceal income could increase for a large number of those currently in employment and self employment. The net effect would therefore be unclear.
The study indicates that the potential impact of a basic income scheme on behaviour in the labour market relates more to the supply then to the demand side. Irish evidence suggests that the labour force participation of women, and in particular married women, tends to be significantly more responsive to financial work incentives than that of men. It has been shown that a substantial number of married women who are currently employees or working full time in the home would see a significant increase in their replacement rates. The incentive to participate in the paid labour force for this particularly responsive group would therefore be significantly reduced by a basic income scheme. This combines with a reduced willingness to work overtime and/or some inclination to reduce the hours worked.
The proposal under the scheme to abolish employers PRSI and replace it with a flat rate Social responsibility Tax, at a lower rate then employer PRSI but without a ceiling, could affect labour demand more directly. The increase in costs to employers for those on earnings above the conventional system's PRSI ceiling, and the reduction in liabilities for those below that ceiling, could increase the attractiveness of low or middle wages labour relative to high wages labour. The recent introduction of a National Minimum Wage will have an important impact here, however given the introduction of a basic income scheme in a context where the labour market was already very tight, a reduction in labour supply as a result of a shift could add to already considerable pressure on wage levels and potentially on inflation and competitiveness. However, uncertainty about labour supply responses, and in particular about the potential for counter-balancing inward migration, makes the overall impact of a basic income scheme on the labour market very difficult to assess. A fall in labour supply is more likely than an increase and a fall in the skilled composition of the labour force is also likely. (ESRI, Phase II p.71).
Assessing the broader impact of a basic income scheme on growth and competitiveness is even more difficult. The basic income proposal involves factors tending to increase both the supply of and demand for low wage, low skilled labour and to reduce the supply of and demand for higher skilled, higher paid labour. Thus, even if total employment were to remain constant, productivity and output might then be expected to be somewhat less than under conventional tax options. If this were the outcome, it could have implications, inter alia, for the tax rate necessary to fund the basic income model.
It has been argued that basic income could improve growth by promoting a more flexible labour market, a more stable macro-economic environment and by generating a fairer distribution of income. However, the negative effect on growth resulting from an increase in the marginal rate of direct taxation is judged by the ESRI to be the most significant channel of influence, with the most likely outcome being that aggregate employment would fall or remain constant, while average productivity and output would be less than under conventional options.
It is clear from the work that has been carried out that the introduction of the basic income system as outlined would require a single tax rate on all personal income of around 47.7% (or somewhat lower in 2001) on the basis of a static analysis. If the dynamic effects summarised below resulted in a decline in labour supply, productivity and output, a higher tax rate would, however, be necessary.
This system would have a substantial impact on the distribution of income in Ireland in that, compared with conventional options, it would on average.
On the basis of this analysis, these impacts would be achieved without any resources additional to those available to the conventional options.
There is a considerable element of uncertainty in predicting the dynamic impact of Basic Income. However, there is a risk that basic income would reduce the high rate of economic growth which is forecast to continue for the next few years. This arises because of the possibility that aggregate employment would be lower than under conventional options or remain constant while average productivity and output would be lower than under conventional options as a result of:
It was not the role of the Steering Group to reach a conclusion or make recommendations about Basic Income. As the studies show, Basic Income would have complex effects, in terms of the initial redistribution, the consequent behavioural changes, and their economic impact. The studies represent a significant move forward in our understanding of these complex issues, and the interplay between considerations of equity and efficiency to which they give rise.
In our understanding, basic income is defined as an income paid unconditionally to everyone on an individual basis, without any means test or work requirement. In a basic income system every person would receive a weekly tax-free payment from the Exchequer and all other personal income is taxed, usually at a single rate. For a person who is unemployed, the basic income payment would replace income from social welfare/social security. For a person who is employed, the basic income payment would replace the tax-free allowance or tax-credit in the income tax system.
There has been a wide range of arguments provided to support the introduction of a basic income system. Among these are:
All of these reasons, and more, have been invoked in favour of introducing a basic income system.
In the late 1970s, the National Economic and Social Council (Ireland's Government-appointed think-tank which includes representatives of social partners, government appointees and key civil servants) commissioned a report on how personal income tax and transfers might be integrated. This report examined three broad options, one of which was basic income. Subsequently, the report generated very little discussion about basic income. However, it did provide the basis for a wide-ranging debate about tax reform that culminated in the establishment of the Commission on Taxation.
The First Report of the Commission on Taxation (1982) contained a cursory examination of basic income that it rejected, mainly on cost grounds. Similarly, the Commission on Social Welfare (1986), quoting the Report of the Commission on Taxation, rejected basic income on cost grounds, but also because basic income might represent a detour from the priority objective, according to the Commission, of increasing social welfare rates to adequate levels.
This failure to analyse basic income on any serious level is difficult to justify, even if it is understandable given the focus of both of these reports and the contexts in which they were produced. However, for many years afterwards these two reports were quoted, by those opposed to analysing a basic income approach, as sufficient reason for rejecting basic income. By such cursory analysis and casual dismissal is policy often made!
From 1987 onwards there have been two approaches to studying basic income in Ireland. The first approach preserved key elements of the existing tax and spending systems . The second approach substituted basic income for the existing tax and welfare systems and some other government spending .
The models developed by Honohan and Callan were similar. Each adult of working age would receive an untaxed payment equivalent to that paid as unemployment assistance (in the social elfare system); this was seen as a "full basic income". Elderly people would receive somewhat higher payments and children would receive smaller amounts. All social welfare payments would be discontinued. Existing 'discretionary' tax reliefs (such as mortgage interest, employee pension contributions, etc.) would be retained. All government spending programmes would also be retained.
Both authors found that a very high tax rate would be required to fund this type of proposal. Tax rates in excess of 65% would be required on all personal incomes. It was suggested that such a high tax rate could act as a disincentive to people taking up employment. In addition, Callan found that the income distribution effect of this proposal was not advantageous for significant numbers of low-income households. Honohan and Callan concluded that these models of basic income should be rejected.
A series of official reports in 1996 reviewed the findings of Callan, notably the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Forfas and the Expert Group on the Integration of the Tax and Social Welfare Systems . These reports endorsed Callan's conclusion that this model of basic income was not viable.
CORI Justice Commission agreed with the Honohan and Callan assessment that this model of basic income was not viable in the Irish context. CORI, however, wanted to achieve the main enefits of basic income, while reducing the cost, so that the tax rate (including social insurance contributions) required would be no more than 50% - which was lower than the top combined income tax and social insurance rate in Ireland in the mid-1990s.
Sean Ward had followed this approach in his 1994 study . The main characteristics of this alternative approach were:
CORI Justice Commission adapted and developed this approach. CORI proposed a number of variations on how it might be implemented in practice. A set of principles for evaluating these roposals against the status quo position were outlined and applied.
One of the most significant aspects in this period was the fact that the various Government studies already referred to gave this particular approach very little consideration. Neither the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment nor Forfas gave the proposal any consideration. The Expert Working Group on the Integration of the Tax and Social Welfare Systems considered the CORI proposal. Its work, however, was seriously flawed methodologically.
The two major objections consistently being put forward as the basis for rejecting basic income were that it would (a) result in tax rates that were too high and (b) there was no practical way of mplementing such a system. The last few years have produced changed contexts on both of these objections.
The economic growth in Ireland in recent years has substantially reduced the tax rate necessary to fund a 'full' basic income for everyone in Ireland. As a result of this CORI developed its original proposals. Instead of having a substantial 'partial' basic income for adults of working age it was possible to pay everyone a full basic income. From 1997 onwards all CORI proposals were for he introduction of a 'full' basic income. In the interest of clarity, I refer to this as the CORI approach, version two.
At the same time CORI commissioned research to look at how it's proposals for basic income could be implemented. Charles Clark and John Healy did this work. They came up with a ecommendation on how to proceed to implementation of a full basic income system for all, over a three-year period.
Of equal importance was the issue of financing a basic income system. For years there had been arguments about the actual tax rate required to finance a basic income system. During that period CORI had sought mechanisms that would produce agreement on this issue. Government refused to study the topic or to provide the funding for such a study to be conducted independently. However, a solution was to be found in 1997.
In Ireland, since 1987 Government has negotiated with employers, trade unions and farming organisations to develop three-year national plans. In 1996 an additional pillar of social partners was added to this partnership structure representing the voluntary and community sector. CORI Justice Commission is one of the organisations which is recognised as a full social partner as part of this pillar. In the course of the negotiations for the new programme called Partnership 2000 (covering 1997 - 9), CORI was successful in getting agreement from the other social partners and vernment to include a section on Basic Income which reads as follows
"Further independent appraisal of the concept of introducing a Basic Income for all citizens will be undertaken, taking into account the work of the ESRI, CORI and the Expert Group on the ntegration of Tax and Social Welfare and international research. A broadly based steering group will oversee the study".
A working group was established to implement this commitment, CORI was part of this working group. The working group decided to divide its work into two phases. Phase 1, examines the tax rate needed to fund Basic Income and the distributional implications of introducing Basic Income with this tax rate. Phase 2 looks at the dynamic effects of the proposal, including its effects on employment, effects on economic growth, short and long-term budgetary implications and the gender dimensions of all of these. These studies have been completed and published by Government along with the working group's report.
The ESRI study done for the Working Group found that a Basic Income system would have a substantial impact on the distribution of income in Ireland in that, compared with the present tax ndwelfare system it would:
The Working Group's Report also found that the tax rate (including PRSI replacement) required to finance Basic Income, based on January 1999 estimates, would be 47%. Since then the economy has grown significantly and the revised rate, based on Revenue Commissioners estimates of the tax base, is 42.7%.CORI Justice Commission welcomed the Final Report of the Working Group on Basic Income. In particular it welcomed the fact that the Report vindicates CORI Justice Commission's claims that a Basic Income system would have a far more positive impact on reducing poverty than the present tax and welfare systems. According to the CORI Justice Commission, this report shows hat a Basic Income system would be far more effective at tackling poverty and should form part of a comprehensive strategy to totally eliminate income poverty in the years immediately ahead.
Commenting on the losers identified in the Report, CORI Justice Commission pointed out two key issues that need to be borne in mind:
On the macro-economic aspects CORI Justice Commission pointed out that the Report itself acknowledges that the findings were very tentative, speculative and hard to quantify. However, it elcomed the Report's conclusion that a basic income system could encourage some people to move from the unofficial economy into regular employment.
For CORI Justice Commission the critical test of any tax and welfare system is its impact on people with lower incomes. While many poor people have benefited from developments of recent years, especially through growth in employment, the fact remains that the gap between poor people and the rest of society has been widened over the past decade and a half.The choice between a Basic Income system and 'conventional' tax/welfare options is a trade off between greater equity and a risk of lower economic growth versus less equity and less risk to igher economic growth. At a time when so much concern is expressed about the country's growth rate being unsustainable, the argument in favour of introducing a Basic Income system is further strengthened.
The most recent national agreement, entitled The Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (2000-2002), contains a commitment to establish a working group to look at the viability of making tax credits refundable. This working group, of which CORI Justice Commission is a member, is nearing completion of its work. Its report should be published in 2002.
The pressure to make tax credits refundable is growing in Ireland as more than one third of those who are in paid employment are outside the tax net and, consequently, do not benefit from tax reductions in the Government's annual Budget.
The move to a tax credits system was completed in Ireland in the past year. The introduction of a refundable tax credit system would take this process a step further and would produce a situation where every person in the country had the right to some form of payment from the State. Viewed from an age-based perspective it would mean that
In the build up to the 1997 Irish general election CORI canvassed all political parties to include a commitment on Basic Income within their election manifestos. The incoming Government (Fianna Fail / Progressive Democrats coalition) made a commitment to introduce a Green Paper on Basic Income within two years. This was a further breakthrough as it ensured that the work being done on Basic Income would be considered within the official policy making process of Government and the results of that consideration would be published for public consideration.
The normal procedure in Ireland is that a Green Paper is followed by a discussion which, in turn, is followed by a White Paper outlining what Government proposes to do which then forms the basis for a Bill which goes before the Oireachtas (both houses of Parliament). Because of the late completion of the working group's studies, publication of the Green Paper was delayed. According to Ireland's Taoiseach (Prime Minister) it is now scheduled for publication in January 2002.
Basic income has been around for almost 25 years in Ireland. In the 1970s it was not addressed seriously. From the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s it was dismissed in official reports as unworkable and/or too costly and/or less important than tackling tax reform or social welfare inadequacy. We have seen that these assessments were made on the basis of very little evidence.
More recently the Report of the Working Group on Basic Income, and its accompanying studies, show that basic income could be financed in the Irish context. CORI's work on implementation mechanisms has shown that a basic income system could be implemented in practice. It is clear that the model proposed by CORI Justice Commission (i.e. a full basic income for all) can be implemented in practice and can be financed without resorting to a too-high level of taxation.
The next phase of this process will see the publication of the Government's Green Paper on Basic Income later this month. Later this year the Working Group on Refundable Tax Credits is expected to publish its report. Both of these documents should lead to a much more informed public debate on the issue of basic income in Ireland. With an election due in Ireland in the first half of 2002 it will be interesting to monitor developments.
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Van Parijs, Philippe (1992), "Competing Justifications of Basic Income" in Arguingg for Basic Income, London: Verso.
Ward, Sean (1994), "A Basic Income System for Ireland" in Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy (eds) Towards an Adequate Income for All, Dublin: CORI.
The CORI Justice Commission has argued, for a long time, that the present tax and social welfare systems should be integrated and reformed to make them more appropriate for the changing world of the 21st century. To this end the Justice Commission has argued for the introduction of a basic income system.
A basic income is an income that is unconditionally granted to every person on an individual basis. It is a form of minimum income guarantee that avoids many of the negative side effects inherent in social welfare payments. A basic income differs from other forms of income support in that:
As CORI Justice Commission has designed it a Basic Income system would replace social welfare. It would guarantee an income above the poverty line for everyone. It would not be means tested. There would be no 'signing on' and no restrictions or conditions. In practice a basic income recognises the right of every person to a share of the resources of society.
There is real danger that the plight of large numbers of people excluded from the benefits of the modern economy will be ignored. Images of rising tides lifting all boats are often offered as Governments, policy makers and commentators assure society that prosperity for all is just around the corner. Likewise, the claim is often made that a job is the best poverty fighter and consequently all priority must be given to getting everyone a paid job. These images and claims are no substitute for concrete policies to ensure all are included. Twenty first century society needs a radical approach to ensure the inclusion of all people in the benefits of present economic growth and development. Basic income is such an approach.
The Basic Income system aims to guarantee an income above the poverty line for everyone. Just as important, it ensures that looking for a paid job and earning an income, or increasing one's income while in employment, is always worth pursuing, because for every pound earned the person will retain a large part. It thus removes the many poverty traps and unemployment traps that may be in the present system.
Women and men get equal payments in a basic income system. Consequently, the Basic Income system promotes gender equality since it treats every person equally.
Ten reasons to introduce basic income
It is a system that is altogether more guaranteed, rewarding, simple and transparent than the present tax and welfare systems. It is far more employment friendly than the present system. It also respects other forms of work besides paid employment. This is crucial in a world where other forms of work need to be recognised and respected. It is also very important in a world where paid employment cannot be permanently guaranteed for everyone seeking it.
Basic Income also lifts people out of poverty and the dreadful dependency mode of survival. In doing this it also restores their self-esteem and broadens their horizons. Poor people, however, are not the only ones who should welcome a Basic Income system. Employers, for example, should welcome it because its introduction would mean they would not be in competition with the social welfare system. Since employees would not lose their Basic Income when taking a job, there would always be an incentive to take up employment.
It should also be pointed out, finally, that a Basic Income system is achievable. Studies done for a range of countries in Europe and beyond have identified how such a system could be put in place and how it could be financed. A series of studies undertaken as part of the Partnership 2000 national agreement, and funded by the Irish Government, have produced interesting results. These studies have shown that a Basic Income system would improve the incomes of 70% of households in the bottom four deciles (i.e. the four tenths of the population with lowest incomes). They have also shown that a Basic Income system would raise half of the individuals that would be below the 40% poverty line under 'conventional' options above this poverty line. This is a highly desirable outcome of income distribution policy.
Basic Income system would create a platform for good work. It would benefit both paid employment as well as other forms of meaningful work. It would also have a substantial impact on reducing income poverty. The present tax and welfare systems were designed for a different era. They have done very well in addressing major problems of the second half of the twentieth century. The world, however, is changing radically. A new system is required for the twenty first century. Basic Income is such a system.
James Robertson spoke from the following text in the session on this topic at the XXIX Annual Conference of the Pio Manzu International Research Centre in Rimini, Italy on 18-20 October, 2003. The overall theme of the conference was “THE ECONOMICS OF THE NOBLE PATH: FRATERNAL RIGHTS, THE CONVIVIAL SOCIETY, FAIR SHARES FOR ALL”. The conference was dedicated to the “essential figures of Ernst Schumacher and Ivan Illich, amidst many of their present-day heirs”.
For his “remarkable contribution to the promotion of a new economics grounded in social and spiritual values” James was one of a number of speakers from around the world who were invited to speak at the conference and presented with gold medals.
Further information about the Pio Manzu Centre, the conference and the award winners is in Appendix I immediately after the paper. The text of the Citation for James’ award, which was signed by Mikhail Gorbachev, is at Appendix II. Finally, the Endnotes contain information supporting the paper.
Thank you for inviting me to this conference. I am honoured, and I am delighted you have dedicated it to E.F. Schumacher and Ivan Illich. I knew both of them personally, and I was one of many people who got great stimulus and support from their work in the 1970s.
Schumacher Circle organisations are now doing valuable work around the world. But we have to recognise that Schumacher’s ideas – and Illich’s insights into the systematically disabling nature of today’s institutions and professions - have hardly begun to influence mainstream agendas. The course of world development is still based on what Illich saw as the erosion of “the conditions necessary for a convivial life” and what Schumacher called the “onward stampede”.
Why is this? Was their thinking lacking in some important respect? Or have we failed to act on it?
Both Illich and Schumacher were criticised for not dealing with political and institutional aspects of change. I remember Illich responding that his task was to explain what was wrong; it was for others to take the necessary action. For him the ideas were pre-eminent. Schumacher’s view that “the task of our generation is one of metaphysical reconstruction” underlined that his priority too was to redefine the meaning of central ideas - like work. It is true – and important – that he set up the Intermediate Technology Development Group, and personally supported the Scott Bader “common ownership” company and the Soil Association. He saw these as “lifeboat institutions” - examples of reconstructed ideas in action in the spheres of technology, business and farming. But for him, like Illich, systematic institutional reconstruction to support metaphysical reconstruction, was not a personal priority.
It doesn’t make much sense to criticise Illich and Schumacher for this. Nobody can do everything. Both men knew themselves well enough to know how best to use their time and energies. We need to ask ourselves:
In this paper, taking government and the money system as a case study, I shall try to outline a possible answer to that question.
Established institutions embody dominant ideas, and transmit them as norms of desired behaviour. For example, today’s economic institutions embody the idea that work means a job with an employer and that normal people should work that way. But, as pioneer systems thinkers in the 1970s like Stafford Beer pointed out, institutions are dynamic systems programmed for survival. So they act as barriers to change, obstructing the conversion of new ideas from thinkers like Illich and Schumacher into new norms of behaviour for most people. In that respect established institutions in society correspond to what business consultants used to call the “soggy middle layer” – conservative middle managements obstructing communication between forward-looking leaders who recognise the need for change and bright younger people eager to bring it in.
The money system has a particular significance. The way it works rewards some activities and penalises others - at personal, local, national and global levels, in every sector of economy and society. In a monetised world this is the principal way of allocating resources. Money is the scoring system for the game of economic life, alongside the rules provided by laws and other legal instruments. The nature of any game and how it is played reflects what the scoring system rewards and penalises.
The reconstruction of today’s money system is now urgent. More and more people are experiencing it as perverse - in terms of economic efficiency, social justice, environmental sustainability, and physical and spiritual health. They see it as responsible:
All this fuels opposition to globalisation in its present form.
One constructive response has been the spread of “alternative” and “complementary” monetary and financial innovations. These unofficial initiatives will become more important, as people and businesses look for new ways of using their money. But today I shall concentrate on mainstream money -
1) The 20th century showed that a centralised socialist economy cannot work efficiently, justly or ecologically. On the other hand, the idea of a free market economy based on objective prices is a fantasy. In developed countries today taxation takes a third of the total value of the economy (GDP) out of some activities, and public spending puts it back into others. The taxes add to the cost of what is taxed and the public spending reduces the cost of what it supports. This affects relative prices all through the economy. So the price structure of any economy is bound to be skewed in favour of some things and against others. The proverbial ‘level playing field’ is a mirage.
2) So the framework provided by the state institutions that deal with money must be designed to encourage ways of using money that serve, not damage, the interests of citizens now and in the future. Within such a framework:
a) the market economy, freely responding to money values, would tend to deliver outcomes which combine economic efficiency with social justice and environmental care;
b) the government would be able to let the market economy operate more freely, with less intervention, than most economies today; and
c) citizens, who wished to do so, would find it easier than now to reduce their need for goods and services bought from the market economy, and also therefore to reduce the amount of money they need to earn by working as employees.
3) The state’s new role towards the market and the citizen should thus be to decolonise and empower. Whether to call this a basically capitalist or basically socialist approach is a matter of personal choice. It will aim to integrate economic efficiency with economic justice. So you could call it both capitalist and socialist or neither, whichever you prefer.
4) Milton Friedman’s teaching that “there ain’t no such thing as a free lunch” (TANSTAAFL) is false. Starting with the enclosure of the common land, modern economies have given massive free lunches to powerful individuals, organisations - and also nations. I shall say more about this and list some of today’s common resources shortly. Their value should be shared as a source of public revenue, in place of the economically, socially and environmentally damaging taxes we have now.
5) This will involve a shift from the idea of redistribution to the idea of predistribution. Whereas redistributive taxes aim to correct the outcomes of economic activity, predistributive taxes and charges will share the value of essential inputs to economic activity. Whereas redistribution is dependency-reinforcing, predistribution will be empowering. It will correct an underlying cause of economic injustice, inequality, exclusion and poverty.
6) In a globalised world economy, we need to evolve institutions of governance embodying those five principles at supranational and subnational levels, as well as national level.
What changes do these background points and principles imply - first nationally, and then internationally?
The essential financial and monetary functions of the state are:
Pressures to reduce existing taxes are growing stronger.
These growing pressures on the existing tax base reinforce the economic, social and environmental arguments for taxing “bads”, not “goods”.
Existing tax structures all round the world are, in fact, absurdly perverse.
A new approach is clearly needed, based on collecting the value of common resources as public revenue for the benefit of all citizens.
Common resources are resources whose value is due to Nature and to the activities and demands of society as a whole, and not to the efforts or skill of individual people or organisations. Land is an obvious example. The value of a particular land-site, excluding the value of what has been built on it, is almost wholly determined by the activities and plans of society around it. For example, when the route of the London Underground Jubilee line was published, properties along the route jumped in value. Access to them was going to be much improved. So, as a result of a public policy decision, the owners of the properties received a £13bn windfall financial gain. They had done nothing for it; they had paid nothing for it; they had been given a very large free lunch. In 1994, based on 1990 values, I calculated that the absence of a site-value tax on land was costing UK taxpayers £50bn to £90bn a year in lost public revenue.
By contrast, the auction three years ago of twenty-year licences to use the radio spectrum for the third generation of mobile phones raised £22.5bn for the UK government. The governments of Germany, France and Italy also raised very significant sums from that common resource.
Important common resources include:
The annual value of these is very great. Collecting it as public revenue would remove the need for many damaging existing taxes.
Those who create and put money into circulation profit by the value of the money minus the cost of producing it.
In a democratic age one would expect money, created in offical currencies as part of a national or supranational money supply backed by governments, to be created by professionally independent central monetary authorities (like the European Central Bank) and given to governments or international government agencies to spend into circulation on public purposes.
But that is far from what happens now. In the UK, for example, less than 5% of today's national money supply is created debt-free by the Bank of England and the Royal Mint as banknotes and coins. Over 95% is created by commercial banks out of thin air as profit-making loans to their customers. J.K. Galbraith commented, “The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled. Where something so important is involved, a deeper mystery seems only decent.” UK commercial banks make over £20 billion a year in interest from this arrangement, while UK taxpayers benefit from less than £3 billion a year in public revenue from the issue of banknotes and coins.
Estimated additional public revenue of about £45bn a year could be collected in the UK,
(Corresponding estimates of potential extra public revenue are: Eurozone ?160bn; USA $114bn; Japan Y17trillion.)
This reform would improve the sharing of resources in many ways. To take one example, a debt-free money supply would help to reduce the costs of economic transactions and the levels of public and private debt. These are now at least partly due to the fact that almost all the money we use has been created as interest-bearing debt which has to be repaid.
Some opponents of reform claim that money in current bank accounts isn’t really money, it’s only credit. But official monetary statistics and monetary policy-makers recognise that it constitutes the main part of the money supply. In fact, recognising it as money exactly reflects what happened in the 19th century when paper banknotes, and not just gold coins, were recognised to be money and commercial banks were no longer allowed to create money by issuing them. The Bank of England’’s banknotes may still say "I promise to pay... ". But that is just a historical survival. Everyone knows that banknotes now are not just credit notes. They are cash.
Today electronic money in current bank accounts is money immediately available to be spent, just as banknotes are. The continuing creation of this state-backed money for private-sector profit is a glaring anachronism.
So much for national public revenue. Reconstruction of public spending is also necessary. The following points are important.
First, $1.5 to $2 trillion a year is estimated to be spent worldwide on perverse subsidies which encourage economically, socially and environmentally damaging activities. These include the subsidies from rich-country governments to their food and agricultural sectors. Combined with tariffs against imported food, these devastate those sectors in poorer countries - and expose the hypocrisy of rich-country support for free trade. This led to the recent breakdown of the world trade talks at Cancun. But there are many other examples of perverse subsidies. Systematic national and international measures are needed to identify them and cut them out.
Second, support for a basic income (or Citizen’s Income) continues to grow, especially in Europe but in other countries too. It would be paid to all citizens as of right, out of public revenue. It would include state pensions and child allowances, it would replace many other existing social benefits, and it would eliminate almost all tax allowances, tax reliefs and tax credits. It would recognise that, in a society of responsible citizens, some of the public revenue arising from the value of common resources should be shared directly among them. Politicians and government officials now pay huge sums in contracts and subsidies to private-sector business and finance to provide public services. Much of that public money could be distributed directly to citizens to spend for themselves in a market economy responsive to their needs – and also to make it easier for them to develop paid or unpaid work of their own, if they wished to reduce their dependence on earnings as employees.
The development of international institutions for dealing with world public revenue, public spending, and monetary management should be based similarly on sharing the value of common resources.
In 1995 the Commission on Global Governance recognised the need for global taxation “to service the needs of the global neighbourhood”. It proposed making nations pay for use of global commons, including:
The Commission also recognised the urgent need for international monetary reform in a globalised world economy.
Since then there has been growing criticism of the present international monetary system based on the 'dollar hegemony' of the United States. Here are two examples from recent reports, one from Asia and one from Ireland.
A genuine international currency, issued by a world monetary authority, is clearly needed as an alternative to the US dollar (and other 'reserve currencies' like the yen, the euro and the pound). Issuing it would give a source of revenue to the world community, just as national monetary reform would do for national communities. It would also help to prevent national governments manipulating the value of their currencies in order to distort the terms of international trade in their own favour.
Revenue from global taxes and global money creation would then provide stable sources of finance for global expenditures, including international peace-keeping programmes. Some of the revenue could also be distributed to all nations according to population size, reflecting the right of every person in the world to a global “citizen's income" based on fair shares of the value of global resources.
This approach:
Support for all the reforms I have mentioned has been growing. But up to now it has been fragmented. Different people have promoted each on its own merits, and different interests have opposed each because, by itself, it would disadvantage them. These reform proposals now need to be developed as integrated parts of a bigger project, to reconstruct the role of money in world society.
I hope that this suggests the nature and the scale of the challenge for all our institutions. The ancient Greek poet Archilochus said: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing”. Our institutionalised society today has too much of the fox. It splits our ways of life and thought into separate specialisms, careers, academic disciplines, professions, and departments of government. Above all, it doesn’t know how to reintegrate politics and economics and science with ethics.
That is why, in these critical breakthrough years, the initial drive for worldwide institutional reconstruction is coming from active citizens and citizen groups. But, if we are to change course successfully to what Schumacher called “the one and only direction of development that would give sense and meaning to our life on Earth”, a bolder and more constructive response must come from leading people in all the established institutions and professions.
The Pio Manzu Centre, XXIX Annual Conference, 2003
“The Pio Manzù International Research Centre, a non-governmental organization of the United Nations and UNIDO, has been operating since 1969 as an institute for the in-depth study of the main economic and scientific aspects of the relationship between man and his environment.
The Centre's primary objective is to design and conduct global investigations into specific issues, drawing upon a broad range of expertise which it seeks to make available to those in the public, private and non-profit sectors whose task it is to devise prompt, effective action strategies.
The main aims of the Pio Manzù Centre are thus to act as:
Founded in 1969 by a group of avant-garde scholars, the Pio Manzù Centre has set up its own network of specialists, a pool of researchers operating in Bologna, London, Darmstadt, Frankfurt, Boston and Moscow.
As a non-profit-making organization, the efforts of the Centre today are mainly targeted at making a major contribution towards the up-to-date, functional study of the interactions between technological and industrial development and its impact on the human and cultural environment.
Over the years, the Centre has designed and conducted studies of major innovative significance in the fields of scientific and technological research.
From this penchant for cultural exchanges and confrontation stems the true mission of the Pio Manzù Centre which, through the constant quest for common interdisciplinary languages across a whole range of spheres of interest, seeks above all to establish the centrality of man, both in terms of his creative and spiritual capabilities and in the setting of a meaningful relationship with nature and the environment.
The Pio Manzù Centre thus offers public and private decision-making centres a complex, well-differentiated framework of collaboration and integration, much appreciated by a highly authoritative international clientele.
Every year, the work of analysis and design conducted by the Centre's own research staff with invaluable contributions from scholars and researchers from numerous academic institutions is presented in the context of the Pio Manzù International Conference.
This prestigious conference, which is held every year in Rimini in October, marks the culmination of the Centre's collaborative research effort and offers an opportunity for joint reflection on the changes taking place in the global context and on the prospects of mankind.”
The theme of the XXIX Annual Conference in October, 2003 was “The economics of the noble path: fraternal rights, the convivial society, fair shares for all”. The conference was dedicated to the “essential figures of Ernst Schumacher and Ivan Illich, amidst many of their present-day heirs”. Its four Workshop sessions were on “Sharing limited resources and a change of course”; “Assets and hardships: proposals for the invention of a fraternal sharing of benefits”; “Water or oil? The assets of living nature are not up for sale”; and “Surviving and being truly human”. The proceedings will be published by the Pio Manzu Centre in due course.
Gold medals were presented to the following, nominated by the Pio Manzu Centre’s International Scientific Committee (President: Mikhail Gorbachev):
Samir Amin, Franco Abruzzo, Zygmunt Bauman, Lester Brown, Ernesto Cardenal, Diego Della Valle, Emma Nicholson, Martha Nussbaum, Corrado Passera, James Robertson, Dominick Salvatore, Enzo Tiezzi, Mario Vargas Llosa, Giancarlo Elia Valori, Derek Walcott, Jean Zeigler, and posthumously the late Sergio Vieira De Mello.
The Pio Manzu Centre’s address is:
Via Budrio 35, I-47826 Verucchio/Rimini, Italy
tel.: (+39) 0541678139 - 0541670220
fax: (+39) 0541670172
e-mail:
Internet: http://www.piomanzu.com
[Citation]
Gold Medal of the Pio Manzu Centre
Awarded by the International Scientific Committee of the Pio Manzu Centre to James Robertson
After working as an aide to Prime Minister Harold Macmillan on his “Wind of Change” African tour in 1960, and as a director of interbank research, James Robertson came to see that “decolonising” today’s overpowerful institutions must be part of the transition to a democratic, environmentally benign post-modern world.
Taking a clear-cut stance on issues involving moral choice, his books as an independent writer and lecturer – including “The Sane Alternative”, a landmark study for the “new economics” movement – have supported practicable measures to promote economic justice, such as monetary reform and a shift of taxation on to the use of land and other resources. He was a prominent founder of The Other Economic Summit (TOES) and the New Economics Foundation in the mid-1980s.
The Pio Manzu Centre pays homage to this ‘reasonable revolutionary’ and singles him out as an outstanding example of a modern thinker at the service of society.
[signed]
Mikhail Gorbachev, President
Rimini, 19 October 2003
1 Schumacher Circle organisations in the UK include the Schumacher Society, Schumacher Book Service, Schumacher College, Centre for Alternative Technology, Intermediate Technology, Soil Association, New Economics Foundation, Resurgence Magazine, Green Books, and India Development Group. There are also a Schumacher Society and an Intermediate Technology in the USA. Schumacher Briefings Nos 1, 4, 5 and 9 all deal with questions about money and the sharing of resources – Schumacher Society, The Create Centre, B-Bond Warehouse, Smeaton Road, Bristol BS1 6XN, England - www.schumacher.org.uk
The Right to Useful Unemployment, page 8.
I am grateful to Diana Schumacher for confirming that Schumacher used this phrase, and the variant “forward stampede”, in a number of lectures and talks.
It has been pointed out - by Peter Etherden in “The Schumacher Enigma”, Fourth World Review, 1999:93 - that the institutions dealing with money are a conspicuous example of this. Working with John Maynard Keynes and J.K. Galbraith after the second World War, Schumacher was seen as an up-and-coming authority on international finance and currency reform. So why in later life, in Small Is Beautiful and other books, did he say so little about how the present money system ties most people to unreconstructed ways of living and working and thinking?
For fuller background see:
Stafford Beer, Designing Freedom, John Wiley, 1974, p.2.
The following two books provide good background.
I owe this thought to Joseph Huber, co-author of “Creating New Money” (see Note 20).
In technical terms, functions 1) and 2) comprise the fiscal functions of the state, and function 3) is the monetary function.
The state is also responsible for regulating private financial enterprises. Scandals in recent years (e.g. Enron, Arthur Andersen, WorldCom, Merrill Lynch) have underlined the importance of this task. But it is not a topic that this paper is discussing.
See Tax Justice Network (www.taxjustice.net).
Sources of information on Land Value Taxation include:
Don Riley,Taken for a Ride: Trains, Taxpayers and the Treasury, Centre for Land Policy Studies, 2001(see note 13).
10 James Robertson, Benefits and Taxes: A Radical Strategy, New Economics Foundation, 1994.
In “Manna from Heaven: Radio Rent Windfalls and the Tax Conversion Fund” in Geophilos 03(1), Spring 2003, from Centre for Land Policy Studies (see note 13), Fred Harrison celebrates the thinking of Nobel prize-winning economist William Vickrey as the origin of this auction, and points out that the socialisation of community-created rental values combined with the full privatisation of untaxed earned wages and savings could remove the ceiling artificially imposed on the capitalist economy by deadweight taxes.
A great deal of work has been done in recent years on energy and environmental taxation. Much of it points towards shifting the burden of taxes away from useful enterprise and employment on to the use of energy and the capacity of the environment to absorb pollution. For example, the EU carbon/energy tax proposal of the 1990s would have used revenue from taxes on fossil fuels to reduce taxes on employment. Valuable sources of information include:
Useful sources include:
The creators of money can spend this profit into circulation, as medieval monarchs and local rulers spent the “seigniorage” from minting and issuing coins. Or they can give it away, as the Bank of England and the Royal Mint now give the UK government a proportion of the value of new banknotes and new coin. Or they can lend it at interest, as today’s commercial banks lend their customers money they have created for that purpose. Or they can lend it interest-free to finance public investment, as recent UK parliamentary motions have proposed the Bank of England should do.
For this and the following paragraphs see Joseph Huber and James Robertson, "Creating New Money: A monetary reform for the information age", New Economics Foundation, London, 2000 - www.neweconomics.org. (Prof. Dr. Joseph Huber is at the Institut für Soziologie, Martin-Luther-Universität, D - 06099 Halle, Germany.)
A fuller list of the benefits of monetary reform would include the following:
Norman Myers, Perverse Subsidies: Tax $s Undercutting Our Economies and Environments Alike, IISD, Winnipeg, Canada, 1998.
Sources of information about basic income include:
A connected point is about spending the revenue from particular sources on specified purposes. The technical term for this is “hypothecation”.
Commission on Global Governance, Our Global Neighbourhood, Oxford University Press, 1995.
Another important contribution is Hazel Henderson, Beyond Globalization: Shaping a Sustainable Global Economy, Kumarian Press (for the New Economics Foundation), 1999.
Henry C K Liu , US Dollar Hegemony Has Got To Go, Asia Times Online Co Ltd, 2002.
Richard Douthwaite, Defense and the Dollar, 2002 and Feasta, Climate and Currency: Proposals for Global Monetary Reform, 2002, prepared for the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development. Details of both from The Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability, 9 Lower Rathmines Road, Dublin 6, Republic of Ireland; e-mail:
; web: www.feasta.org
Two further quotations in similar vein are:
In a celebrated essay on “The Hedgehog and the Fox” in Russian Thinkers, 1978, the political philosopher Isaiah Berlin discussed Tolstoy as an example of the tension between the monist and pluralist visions of the world.
The British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, has found it difficult to achieve his proclaimed aim of “joined-up government”.
E.F. Schumacher, A guide for the perplexed, Jonathan Cape 1977, p. 147.
The Basic Income Earth Network - BIEN - was founded in 1986 as the Basic Income European Network. (see here the BIEN Statutes)
It expanded its scope from Europe to the Earth in 2004. It is an international network that serves as a link between individuals and groups committed to or interested in basic income, and fosters informed discussion of the topic throughout the world.
To that end it organises Congresses every two years, and publishes a free email NewsFlash every two months and it helps support the journal Basic Income Studies.
BIEN is supported by individual members from throughout the world.
BIEN is affiliated with seventeen national networks throughout the world.
Contact: bien@basicincome.org
The Basic Income Earth Network c/o
Chaire Hoover d'éthique économique et sociale, Université catholique de Louvain
Place Montesquieu, 3, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, BELGIUM
The BIEN website may be accessed here.
Theme: Inequality and Development in a Globalised Economy - The Basic Income Option
All papers supplied to the organising committee have been uploaded and can be accessed by going to the particular speaker and clicking on the link(s) supplied. Some speakers have made their slide presentations available and others have also included other documents relevant to their presentation
Thursday, June 19th, 2008
9.15am - 5pm IRELAND DAY CONFERENCE 'MAKING CHOICES - CHOOSING FUTURES'
Part One: Making Choices - Choosing Futures
Part Two: Securing an Adequate Income
Meeting BIEN Ireland
Chairperson: John Baker
Friday, June 20th, 2008
9.30-11.00 PLENARY SESSION 1
Theme: Inequality and Development in a Globalised Economy - WHY Basic Income is a major part of the answer
11.30 - 1.00 PARALLEL SESSION 1
1a. Pensions and Basic Income
(i) Armando Barrientos (University of Manchester) Role of non-contributory pensions as a form of securing a basic income in developing countries
(ii) John Macnicol (London School of Economics) The politics of non-contributory pensions Download Document
(iii) Brian Nolan (University College Dublin) Providing Basic Income for Older Persons: What can be Learned from the Performance of the Irish Pension System?
1b. Global and Regional Issues
(i) Ian Gareth Orton (La Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa) Eliminating Child Labour: The Promise of Unconditional Cash Transfers Download Power point / Download Pdf
(ii) Heiner Michel (University of Frankfurt) Is a Global Basic Income a Remedy for Poverty? Download Pdf
1c. Gender and Care I: Should Feminists Embrace Basic Income? (Roundtable - open to all) Download Document
(i) John Baker (University College Dublin, Ireland)
(ii) Julieta Elgarte (Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina) Download Document
(iii) Anca Gheaus (Université Catholique de Lille, France) Download Document
(iv) Almaz Zelleke (The New School, New York, USA) Download Pdf
(v) Orla O'Connor (National Women's Council of Ireland)
(vi) Cathleen O'Neill (Kilbarrack Community Development, Dublin, Ireland)
1d. An Institutional Perspective on Basic Income I
(i) Louise Haagh (University of York) Basic Income, Labour Market and Occupational Freedom
(ii) Bill Jordan (University of Plymouth) Basic Income and Social Value Download Document
(iii) Rubén M. Lo Vuolo (Ciepp) Labour markets informality and welfare regimes in Latin America. Why Basic Income is better Download Pdf
1e. Social Justice and the Meaning of Life
(i) Michèle Billoré (France) Noospheric Ethical/Ecological Constitution for Mankind Document 1 / Document 2
(ii) Manuel Franzmann (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität) An Unconditional Basic Income from the Perspective of the Sociology of Religion Download Pdf
(iii) Johannes Hanel (Germany) Basic Income and Social Jusitce Download Pdf
14.00 - 15.30 PARALLEL SESSION 2
2a. Routes to Basic Income I
(i) Francisco Jose Martinez Martinez (Universidad Nacional de Distancia, Madrid) Debate on Basic Income in the Spanish Parliament Download Document
(ii) Al Sheahan (USBIG) The Rise and Fall of a Basic Income Guarantee Bill in the U.S. Congress Download Document
(iii) Daniel Raventós (University of Barcelona) and Julie Wark How to Implement Universal Human Rights: the Monterrey Declaration
2b. Case Studies - Countries
(i) John Tomlinson (Queensland University of Technology) Timor Leste: Minimum Wages, Job Guarantees, Social Welfare Payments or Basic Income? Download Power Point / Download Document
(ii) Sergio Luiz de Moraes Pinto (São Paulo Municipality Government) Basic Income and Stakeholder Grants: Jointly Breaking the Long History of Endemic Poverty and Economic Inequality in Brazil Download Document
2c. Gender and Care II: Is Basic Income Good for Women?
(i) Áine Uí Ghiollagáin (la Fédération Européenne des Femmes Actives au Foyer) Basic income and caring: Why aren't all caregivers interested in basic income? Download Document / Download Power Point
(ii) Mary Murphy (NUI, Maynooth) and Orla O'Connor (National Women's Council of Ireland) Is basic income the answer to the feminist demand to individualise Irish social security? Download Document
(iii) Margot Young (University of British Columbia) Women, Work and Basic Income
2d. An Institutional Perspective on Basic Income II
(i) Lindsay Stirton (University of Manchester) Rethinking Universal Welfare and Administration
(ii) Jurgen De Wispelaere (Trinity College Dublin/University of Oxford) and José A. Noguera (Autonomous University of Barcelona) The Political Feasibility of Basic Income: Towards an Analytical Framework
2e. Theoretical Perspectives on Basic Income
(i) Ian Gareth Orton (La Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa) Why we Ought to Listen to Zygmunt Bauman. Download Pdf / Download Power Point
(ii) Andrea Fumagalli (University of Pavia) and Stefano Lucarelli (University of Bergamo) Basic Income and Counter-power in Cognitive Capitalism Download Power Point
16.00 - 17.30 PLENARY SESSION 2
Theme: HOW can a Basic Income system be operationalised and achieved (politically, institutionally and technically)?
18.30 OFFICIAL EVENT
Official reception hosted by Mr John Gormley, TD, Minister for Environment, Heritage and Local Government, on behalf of the Irish Government at his offices: Custom House, Dublin City Centre.
Saturday, June 21st, 2008
9.30 - 11.00 PARALLEL SESSION 3
3a. Routes to Basic Income II
(i) Richard Lawson (Green Party England and Wales) Introducing Basic Income by the Back Door in a Recession Download Document
(ii) Gösta Melander (Swedish Senior Party) How a basic income may be achieved politically Download Document / Download Powerpoint / Download Powerpoint Appendix 2
(iii) Marc Meuris (Belgium) A Basic Income Allowance as a solution for the social unification of the EU Download Pdf / Download Power Point
3b. The Bolsa Familia in Brazil I
(i) Maria Ozanira da Silva e Silva (Universidade Federal do Maranhão, Brazil) The Bolsa Família Program and the Reduction of Poverty and Inequality in Brazil Download Document
(ii) Clóvis Roberto Zimmermann (Universidade Estadual de Montes Claros) The Citizenship Principle in Income Transfer Programs in Brazil Download Pdf
3c. Basic Income and the Environment
(i) Borja Barragué (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) Pigovian Taxes, Cap-and-Trade System, or Environmental Adders? A Green Financial Model for a Basic Income Download Document
(ii) Celia Kerstenetzky (Universidade Federal Fluminense, Rio de Janeiro) and Lionello Punzo (Università di Siena) Sustainable tourism: basic income for poor communities Download Pdf
(iii) Erik Christensen (Aalborg University, Denmark) A Global Ecological Argument for a Basic Income Download Document
3d. Freedom and Reciprocity I: Basic Income and the Institutions of a Property-Owning Democracy
(i) Simon Birnbaum (University of Stockholm) Freedom, Reciprocity and the Ethos of Work
(ii) David Casassas (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) Freedom as Personal Independence: From the Claim for Reciprocity to the Struggle for Equity Among Peers
(iii) François Hudon (Université Catholique de Louvain) Basic Income and Property-Owning Democracy: Toward a Free and Equal Society
3e. Basic Income and Guaranteed Income in Canada
(i) Pat Evans (Carleton University, Ottawa) Challenging Income (In)security: Women and Precarious Employment Download Document
(ii) Luann Good Gingrich (York University, Ontario) Double jeopardy, social exclusion, and lone mothers in the market-state social field
(iii) Robert Arnold and Rob Rainer (National Anti-Poverty Organisation, Canada) Working Towards Guaranteed Adequate Income in Canada: the NAPO Initiative
(iv) James Mulvale (University of Regina, Canada) The Debate on Basic Income / Guaranteed Adequate Income in Canada: Perils and Possibilities Download Power Point / Online Documents (outside website)
11.30 - 12.15 CONFERENCE ADDRESSES
Peter Power T.D., Minister for Overseas Aid, Department of Foreign Affairs, Ireland.
Rosani Cunha, National Secretary of Citizen's Income, Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, Brazil.
Dr Jean Swanson-Jacobs, Deputy Minister Social Development, Republic of South Africa
12.15 - 13.45 PARALLEL SESSION 4
4a. Funding Basic Income I
(i) Francisco Javier Alonso Madrigal and José Luis Rey Pérez (University Pontificia Comillas of Madrid) What Type of Taxes Demands Basic Income? Download Pdf
(ii) Annie Miller (Citizens Income UK) Designing and Costing Simple Basic Income Schemes Download Document
4b. The Bolsa Familia in Brazil II: the Transition from BF to Basic Income
(i) Eduardo Matarazzo Suplicy (Brazilian Federal Senate) The Transition from the Bolsa Família Program to the Citizen's Basic Income in Brazil Download Document
(ii) Carolina Raquel D. Mello Justo (Universidade Estadual de Campinas) Basic Income X Minimum Income:How the Political-Ideological Dispute has advanced in Brazilian Concrete Programs Download Pdf Download Powerpoint
4c. The Debate in Europe
(i) Gianluca Busilacchi (University of Camerino, Italy) The different regimes of minimum income policies in the enlarged Europe Download Document
(ii) Sascha Liebermann (UBI, Germany) The German experience of bringing Basic Income into the National Debate Download Document
(iii) Eric Patry (University of St. Gallen, Switzerland) The Basic Income Debate in Switzerland: Experiences and Perspectives Download Pdf
(iv) Markku Ikkala (Jyväskylä University, Finland) Basic Income Discussion in Finland Download Document
4d. Freedom and Reciprocity II: The Case for Basic Income
(i) Karl Widerquist (University of Reading) Status Freedom
(ii) Almaz Zelleke (New School, New York) Reconsidering Independence: Foundations of a Feminist Theory of Distributive Justice Download Pdf
(iii) David Casassas (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) and Daniel Raventós (Universitat de Barcelona) Property and Freedom: Theses on the Republican Case for Basic Income
4e. Economic Security in Canada
(i) Ernie Lightman (University of Toronto) Towards Economic Security for New Immigrants: Beyond Workfare
(ii) Anita Vaillancourt (University of Northern British Columbia/University of Toronto) More than a Northern Living Allowance: Considerations and Strategies for Designing and Implementing Basic Income in Rural Northern Contexts
(iii) William Clegg (National Anti-Poverty Organisation, Canada) Basic Income-Greater Freedom of Choice Through Greater Economic Security of the Person in a Globalized Economy Download Document
14.00 - 14.30
Video Presentation by Eduardo Suplicy (Brazilian Federal Senator)
(All Welcome - running during lunch time in the main conference hall - Room a)
14.45 - 16.15 PARALLEL SESSION 5
5a. Funding Basic Income II
(i) Al Sheahen (USBIG) How the U.S. Can Afford a Poverty-Level Basic Income Guarantee Download Document
(ii) Jörg Drescher (Projekt Jovialismus) Economic view of model proposals for funding a basic income on the basis of the value creation of goods and services Download Pdf
(iii) Paul Segal (University of Oxford) The Resource Dividend: How to (Nearly) Eliminate Global Poverty using Resource Rents
5b. Approaches to Costing a Basic Income for Ireland (Roundtable - open to all)
(i) Micheal L Collins (Trinity College Dublin, Ireland)
(ii) Sean Healy (CORI Justice, Ireland)
(iii) Brigid Reynolds (CORI Justice, Ireland)
(iv) Sean Ward (Public Sector Analyst, Ireland)
(v) Charles M.A. Clark (St John's University, New York)
5c. Making Basic Income Happen
(i) Wim Van Lancker (University of Antwerp) Basic income, an alternative for neo-liberal pension reforms?
(ii) Steven Shafarman (Citizens Policies Institutes, USA) Basic Income and the 2008 Campaign in the United States Download Document
5d. Global Justice
(i) Michael W. Howard (University of Maine) Cosmopolitanism, Trade, and Global (or Regional) Transfers Download Document / Download PowerPpoint
(ii) Celia Kerstenetzky (Universidade Federal Fluminense) and Gary Dymski Download Document
(University of California) Global Basic Income and Financial Globalisation
(iii) Myron J. Frankman (McGill University) Justice, Sustainability and Progressive Taxation and Redistribution: The Case for a World-Wide Basic Income. Download Pdf / Download Power Point
5e. Basic Income in Changing Contexts
(i) Maria Oleynik (Ireland) Basic Income in a Changing Ireland Download Pdf
(iii) Alexander Varshavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences) Basic income and increasing income inequality in Russia Download Document
(iii) Emer O Siochru (Feasta, Ireland) Basic Income and Environmental Challenges
16.45 - 18.00 CLOSING PLENARY
Theme: Basic Income: The Way Forward
A roundtable with a number of short presentations from people reflecting on the main themes of the Congress and what they have heard followed by an open forum. The speakers:
Open Forum
Thanks and Farewell
18.30 - 20.00 BIEN General Meeting - elections etc.
Montrose Hotel (across the road from the congress venue)
19.00 INFORMAL SOCIAL EVENT - Montrose Hotel (across the road from the congress venue)
The 12th International Congress of the Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) was held on June 20-21, 2008, in Dublin, Ireland and addressed the theme: Inequality and Development in a Globalised Economy - The Basic Income Option.
This two-day event involving participants from all the continents of the world was preceded by a one-day event (June 19, 2008) which focused on Ireland.
The Congress was attended by more than 230 participanats from 21 countries including all continents of the world. It combined four plenary sessions and twenty five parallel workshops over its two days. More than 90 papers were presented.
The Congress was held at the Quinn School of Business, UCD, Belfield, Dublin.
This is one man’s story of how he came to have a Basic Income for the rest of his life. His name is Karl Widerquist. He is Visiting Associate Professor in Philosophy, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in Qatar. He is also the Chair of BIEN – the Basic Income Earth Network that believes everyone in the world should have a Basic Income. He spoke at the Basic Income World Congress in Dublin in 2008. This is his story in his own words – originally published in the recent edition of the BIEN Newsletter. It has many lessons for our time.
In a period of about eight months, I managed to save and invest enough money to get myself a small personal basic income. It was easy—if you get the kind of lucky breaks I got. I’m telling you this story only because it illustrates how much our economic fortunes are determined by luck, how favorably our laws treat people who own stuff (people who have obtained control of natural resources) and how much unearned income is available for redistribution.
According to my job title, I’m a philosopher. My field is not known as a big money-maker. But at least since Aristotle, philosophers have occasionally made good money by teaching the children of the rich. Aristotle went to Macedon to teach the son of the king. I went to the Middle East the children of the oil-rich. The history that made parts of the Middle East rich began more than 90 years, as the Ottoman Empire was breaking up. Britain in the France decided to arbitrarily draw lines on the map of the Middle East to create dependencies that eventually became states. Nobody knew at the time how much oil was there or where most of it was. So, they had no idea those lines would make eventually some of those countries very rich and others very poor.
Thanks to those decisions, the small Persian Gulf state of Qatar is now the wealthiest country in the world. A few years ago the Emir of Qatar (who basically owns the country) offered huge amounts of money to get big-name Western universities, including Georgetown, to open campuses there. Last year Georgetown hired me at a salary about three or four times what I made on my previous job.
What did I do to “earn” this salary? My teaching load is lighter and my skills are no higher than they were last year. The work I do now is no more important than the work I did last year. The children of the oil-rich can afford to pay more for their education, but it’s hard to argue that it’s more important to educate them than anyone else.
Partly I’m being paid for my flexibility. Most people can’t pick up and move to the Middle East. Partly I’m being paid because everybody knows the Emir of Qatar has a lot of money, and nobody with any other options is going to work there unless they get a piece of it. Just a lucky break for whoever happens to be in position to take advantage of it.
So, suddenly, I had money to invest.
Meanwhile, in South Bend, Indiana, the most depressed real estate market in the United States, my brother was a public school teacher. He had bought a couple houses, fixed them up, and was making good money renting them out. He had time and skills to invest but not money. I had money but no time. We trust each other. The arrangement was obvious—a lucky coincidence.
Because real estate prices are so low in South Bend, we already have three houses, a lien on another, and we’ll soon be shopping for another. We have long-term leases signed on the first three houses, so that, beginning August 1, my share of the rental income from those houses will be about $700 per month, or $8,400 this year, next year, and every year. The laws of the state entitle me to keep that stream of income from now until the end of time. I could leave it to my children or set up a trust fund that to direct that flow of income toward whatever purpose satisfies the whim I have in my head when I write my will.
I have basic income, not just for life, but forever.
I pay about $15 a month in property tax on each home. But because we can deduct funds spent on improvements to the homes and claim “depreciation,” I can expect to pay no income taxes out of my share of the returns. If it looks like our profit will be so strong that it will force us to pay taxes we can put a new roof on a house, deduct the cost from our earnings, see the value of our home increase (thought property taxes will not), and earn more rent. People who actually have to work for their money can expect a quarter or a third of it to go to income taxes. This is not some brilliant shelter that our accountant devised. This is how people who own stuff are treated by the tax rules from Key West, Florida to North Slope, Alaska.
Assuming no compound interest and no new investments on my part, the rent on the property I have accumulated in eight months of saving and investing will add up to $84,000 over 10 years, $840,000 over the next 100 years. Assuming compound interests and new investments that amount would go up exponentially—possibly increasing by 10 times in a dozen years.
Of course, $8,400 is a very small basic income. It doesn’t tempt me to quit my job and spend the rest of my life surfing off Malibu. Yet, it is nearly as large as what a very optimistic basic income supporter would hope to start out with. It is far larger than anything Congress is likely to approve for people who need it. People are likely to say we “can’t afford it” even though there are many people, who own much more than I do, taking in money just as easily.
Compare my personal basic income to the only regional basic income in the world today. Last year, the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend paid $1305 to each resident of Alaska. That means that after eight months of saving, I am able to pay myself a dividend more than six times the amount that the oil-rich state of Alaska can pay its citizens after more than thirty years of saving and investing. But Alaska taxes almost nothing else but oil, and they use only a small portion of their oil revenue to support the Permanent Fund. Mostly they used their oil wealth to give people who own other things in Alaska a big tax cut. If they had used all of their oil royalties to support the fund, the dividend would be at least four times what it is now.
What can I possibly have done in eight months of investing to have earned a perpetual stream of income from now until the end of time?
Not much really. Lucked into a situation. As much as people believe that we must keep taxes low to reward people who do stuff and produce stuff, our property laws and tax laws most favor people who own stuff. In part, laws are set up this way because people who own stuff are very powerful. They have an enormously disproportionate control over government policy, and very often choose policies in their own self interest. Owners have successfully pushed most of the tax burden off onto people who make salaries.
But another important reason why the laws so greatly favor people who own stuff is that most people do not understand the difference between rewarding people who produce stuff and rewarding people who own stuff. A lot of what we spend goes to reward production, but it’s a mistake to think all income is earned. What can any investor do in a finite amount of time to “earn” a stream of income that lasts forever?
Supposedly investors are paid for their forbearance and parsimony. Because investors have the discipline to put money away instead of spending it on consumption now, they earn a return on that savings. But I didn’t save money because I was frugal. I saved money because I had money. I have spent money more extravagantly in the past year than at any other time in my life. Because I made so much more than I was used to, I was able to buy pretty much whatever I felt like, and still have a lot left over to invest. This seems to be true of a lot of investors.
Supposedly investors are paid for taking risks, but many of the vest investments are not very risky. There is no chance that this business will go bankrupt, because we don’t owe any money. There is some chance that rental prices in South Bend will fall slightly, but probably not much. If the South Bend real estate market stays depressed I can expect my rental income to rise with inflation. If the market gets better I can expect it to rise more quickly than inflation.
Supposedly investors are paid for providing a valuable service. To some small extent this is true of me. If I hadn’t invested this money, the South Bend real estate market would be just a little more depressed. Rental properties would be just a little less available; purchase prices would be just a little lower; rental prices would be just a little higher, and other landlords would make just a little higher rate of return. That’s something. But it hardly justifies a stream of income from now until the end of time.
Supposedly the stream of income is justified by the continued maintenance and improvements that owners put into their properties. But those all come out of the stream of income. The need for maintenance or improvement might decrease the size of my returns, but there is no necessity for any new investment or even action on my part to maintain them. I can just sit back and collect. Over time, the renters pay for the maintenance themselves.
Investors might have to do something or produce something to obtain ownership of a resource, but once they own it, anyone who wants to do anything with that resource has to pay the owner for the privilege. The owners of the past get a cut of all current production whether they personally contribute anything or not. The existence of so much unearned income reorients our economy away from productive activity so that you can’t be sure that the initial investment was necessarily something productive. Much of what people do, especially in the financial, insurance, and real estate sectors revolves not around the provision of services but around using financial resources as leverage to obtain more financial resources.
Renters pay me because I own stuff that other people don’t. I’m in that position, because I just happened to have a brother who needed an investor just when I happened to have money to invest. I was in that position because I just happened to get a job in Qatar. The Emir of Qatar just happened to be able to give me that job because arbitrary decisions made long ago by the British Empire just happened to have worked out so that he owns stuff that other people don’t.
Lucky break upon lucky break upon lucky break determines who owns resources and who does not. Those who do not own will pay those who do, year after year, from now until the end of time or until we decide to change the rules. We don’t need to eliminate property to change the rules in an important way. How about a little rebate from those who own stuff to those who do not? It would compensate them for all that they have to pay just because others control the resources we all need to use.
Disillusionment with the current welfare regime in Germany is real and growing. Interestingly, the solution being proposed by a growing bloc of Christian Democrats (Angela Merkel's party and major part of the current German Government Coalition) is that Germany should move to a Basic Income system. The group within the Christian Democrats proposing this move are led by Dieter Althaus, former premier of the German state of Thuringia. This recent article in City Journal tells an interesting story.
The full text is reproduced below.
A Basic Income for All?
by Cameron Abadi
German free marketeers turn to an innovative idea.
City Journal Spring 2010
Europeans may find it impossible to imagine dismantling their welfare states, but they are increasingly confronting the possibility that a shake-up is overdue. For some countries, like Greece and Spain, fiscal woes are forcing the issue. In Germany, by contrast, the problem is less urgent but more profound. There, the welfare state is undergoing a crisis not of liquidity but of legitimacy.
Germans are attached to a social system that provides for the indigent, but they’re increasingly confounded by its scope. When the country wove its substantial safety net, most Germans assumed that reliance on it would be unusual. That assumption has lost its credibility over the last several decades, as high rates of unemployment have persisted. And so, where the welfare state was meant to foster societal cohesion, it has led to a hardening of social divisions; resentment simmers among the middle classes, while the disaffected cultivate a defensive attitude. Everyone agrees that a bargain has been broken, but no one knows quite where the violation has taken place.
In January, Germany’s high court initiated the latest round of finger-pointing, declaring that the nation’s standardized levels of unemployment assistance were calculated in a way that violated recipients’ constitutional right to “dignity”—basically, that the assistance wasn’t generous enough. The head of the free-market Liberal Party countered that any suggestion that the unemployed receive still more money threatened to sink Germany into an era of “late Roman decadence.” And so on.
Only a few policymakers and intellectuals, mostly conservatives, have separated themselves from the rhetorical scuffles to offer a genuine systematic critique. The upshot of their analysis comes as a surprise to many Germans—as it would, no doubt, to many Americans. According to a growing bloc of Christian Democrats—under the leadership of Dieter Althaus, former premier of the German state of Thuringia—the problem isn’t that the state is providing insufficient incentives to work, but rather that the state is enforcing a duty to work at all. The only way that Germany can honor people’s right to material dignity while freeing the labor market of distortions, they argue, is by means of bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen, or unconditional basic income: a single monthly payment, pegged to levels currently received by the unemployed, guaranteed to every citizen from cradle to grave.
Basic income isn’t a new concept. It’s been debated among scholars and policymakers in a number of Western countries since the 1970s and has even found fertile ground in the United States. It’s a close relation of Milton Friedman’s idea of a negative income tax, and it made it onto President Richard Nixon’s agenda under the portfolio of his advisor Daniel Patrick Moynihan. Its most recent American advocate has been Charles Murray. In his book In Our Hands, Murray suggests that America dispose with unemployment insurance, Medicare, and Social Security, replacing them with a yearly $10,000 grant paid to every adult.
German advocates of such an approach say that the move would save the state money. After all, there would be no bureaucracy to support, no red tape to manage, and no social workers to supervise. Of course, it would also demand a radical realignment of the German economy’s moral guideposts. The current understanding is that there’s no such thing as a free lunch. The unemployed receive assistance, but only on the condition that they actively seek work. People on the dole have to show up at “job centers,” where they can be ordered to appear at interviews or asked to furnish proof that they’ve sent out a given number of job applications. If a German isn’t currently employed, the state assumes the duty to train him for a job, or at least cajole him into finding one.
But the proponents of guaranteed basic income point out that this system is crippled by moral hazard. There are so many exceptions to the duty to pursue work, and so few examples of real sanctions for not doing so, that nobody will be allowed to suffer hunger or homelessness on the state’s watch. More fundamentally, basic-income advocates argue that the duty to pursue work is based on the mistaken assumption that there’s work to be had. A growing number of economists suggest that Germany reconcile itself to the fact that in the postindustrial age, the country will provide ever fewer opportunities for low-skilled workers. In this context, policies in pursuit of full employment make no sense; indeed, the demands currently made on the out-of-work are nothing less than perverse. If the long-term unemployed have no meaningful chance to advance a career, what purpose does it serve for the state to monitor and control their activities?
Furthermore, the advocates of basic income say, the contemporary mind-set has allotted to salaried work an exaggerated role in shaping personal identity. Basic income would allow Germans to combine different avenues of part-time work or pursue types of labor that aren’t normally honored with pay, such as caring for the elderly. (This is an important difference between Murray’s concept and the German one: Murray sees his yearly $10,000 grant as a spur to work; the German variation pivots on the belief that many Germans ought to be taking up pursuits outside the classic economic framework.) Also, basic income would encourage citizens to think more like entrepreneurs in pursuing work and allow unfettered labor markets to regain control over wages. It’s no surprise that Germany’s powerful national unions—and their traditional allies in the Social Democratic Party—have argued vociferously against the idea.
For now, it all seems little more than a thought experiment. Chancellor Angela Merkel, head of the Christian Democrats, seems inclined to raise the rates of handouts in response to the recent high-court decision, rather than consider more wholesale change. But disillusionment with the current welfare regime is real and mounting. If Merkel wants to understand German frustrations, she should pay careful attention to what the mavericks in her own party have to say. And she should do so soon: it’s not clear how much longer the center will hold.
Cameron Abadi is the Germany correspondent for GlobalPost.
The number of unpaid carers in Ireland is about 350,000 i.e. 8% of all adults. A study published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on July 29, 2010 shows that almost half of these are spending more than 15 hours per week providing care for the main person they cared for, with one in five carers spending more than 57 hours per week on caring activities.
By David G. Blanchflower and Andrew J. Oswald
Warwick Economic Series Papers - October 29, 2007
By Claudia Biancotti and Giovanni D'Alessio
Society for the Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEC) Paper 2007-75 – October 2007
Revisiting the Institutions and Economic Performance Debate
By: Jamus Jerome Lim and Jessica Henson Decker
Munich Personal RePEc Archive, December 4, 2007
By: Lauren Pandolfelli, Ruth Meinzen-Dick and Stephan Dohrn
Collective Action and Property Rights (CAPRi) May, 2007.
Programme for Government, Ireland, 2002 |
Social Justice Ireland welcomes Government’s publication of the Climate Change Response Bill 2010. While some of its proposals are welcome the Bill is weaker than the Government’s Framework Document published in December 2009. It is weaker than the commitment to legislation contained in the renewed Programme for Government. It is also weaker than what was proposed by the cross-party Oireachtas Committee. Changes have been introduced at the behest of major vested interests with the result that the current draft of the Bill needs to be strengthened if it is to be fit for purpose. Social Justice Ireland believes the Bill should be amended.
Friends of the Earth have published a 5-page Briefing on the Bill and recommend that people contact Senators and TDs with their suggestions on how this Bill should be amended if it is to safeguard the long-term public interest.
Context and background
Over the past number of years many questions have been raised with regard to the appropriateness and reliability of the scientific evidence on climate change. In particular, there have been a number of politicians and academics who have dismissed the available evidence and suggested that the identified effects of global warming are part of the Earth’s natural cycle. In response to this uncertainty the British Government commissioned an independent report to critically examine the available evidence. Nicholas Stern, a former chief economist of the World Bank and the current head of the British Government Economic Service, researched and wrote the report. Among the key findings of the report are the following:
International reports such as those issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001 and 2007) have provided further details on the international implications of climate change. To complement these, two reports focusing on Ireland have been prepared for the EPA by the Department of Geography at the NUI, Maynooth. (Sweeney et al, 2003; McElwain and Sweeney, 2007). These presented an assessment of the magnitude and likely impacts of climate change in Ireland over the course of the current century.
The 2003 report entitled Climate Change: scenarios & impacts for Ireland predicted the following:
(Sweeney at al, 2003)
Both reports also examine the specific implications of these findings for agriculture, water resources, forestry, sea-levels and eco-systems in Ireland.
A more recent report by the Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (2008) published the following key findings:
Overall the reports suggest that there are considerable implications of climate change for Ireland and they underscore the necessity to adequately address this issue in the immediate future.
Social Justice Ireland believes the Government’s Climate Change Response Bill should be strengthened to address the weaknesses highlighted by Friends of the Earth and others. These weaknesses are listed here:
· The Bill is weaker in key respects than the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Change’s cross-party Bill e.g. absence of legally-binding 5-year carbon budgets.
· There is no provision for five year targets in the Bill. The first target is for 2020, which is too far away to be politically effective.
· Carbon Budgets, the best way of managing the delivery of emissions targets, and much vaunted by this Government, are completely absent from the Bill.
· The Framework Document promised the Bill would enshrine emissions reductions of 3% a year until 2020. The published Bill only promises reductions of 2.5% a year.
· IBEC are mistaken – the 2020 target in this Bill is the same as Ireland’s EU target, not more demanding.
· The IFA are mistaken – agriculture is not penalised or singled out in any way. The Oireachtas Committee Bill, which has cross-party support, has much stricter targets for agriculture.
· The independence of the Expert Advisory Body is severely undermined in the published Bill – it can’t even publish its own reports.
The full text of the Climate Change Response Bill is available here.
This is the first in a series of reports on the UN Climate Change conference curreently taking place in Durban prepared by Sean McDonagh SSC. Social Justice Ireland is very grateful to Sean for providing these updates.
The United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change began on November 28th 2011 in Durban, South Africa. Almost 10,000 people are expected to attend the conference which will continue until December 7th 2011.
Those attending include representatives of the world's governments, international organizations and civil society. The discussions will seek to advance, in a balanced fashion, the implementation of the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, as well as the Bali Action Plan, agreed at COP 13 in 2007, and the Cancun Agreements, reached at the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. (COP 16) last December.
The Conference was opened by the President of the Republic of South Africa, Jacob Zuma. He called on all the parties involved in the negotiations to work diligently to find a solution to the climate issues at Durban. According to President Zuma, “for most people in the developing world and Africa, climate change is a matter of life and death. We are always reminded by the leaders of small island nations that climate change threatens their very existence' (http://www.fm.co.za/Article.aspx?id=159808). He went on to say that, “recently the island national of Kiribati became the first country to declare that global warming is rendering its territory uninhabitable. They asked for help to evacuate the population' (ibid.)
But the devastation which climate change will bring will not be confined to small island nations or coastal cities in other countries. President Zuma claimed that climate change will reduce agriculture output by 50 percent across the African continent. He drew attention to the fact that “severe drought in Somalia is exacerbating an already volatile region causing displacement of populations and increasing refugee communities in Kenya.” If one includes that high level of population growth which is predicted for African and with falling food production, then the future will be very problematic unless significant action is taken on climate change. In South Africa itself, climate change has led to severe flooding in coastal areas. As a result some people have lost their lives and others have lost their livelihood.
The impact of climate change is not confined to small island nations or the continent of Africa. President Zuma said that, “In the Americas, we have also witnessed the frequency of intense hurricanes on the Gulf Coast from which the communities of New Orleans have yet to fully recover, five years after Hurricane Katrina. “
In some quarters the climate change debate is often divorced from eradicating global poverty. The location of the conference in Africa should be a reminder to the delegates, “that solving climate change cannot be separated from eradicating poverty.” He went on to recall the progress which has made to date. At COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009, there was a commitment to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 34 percent by 2020 and 42 percent by 2025. Reductions of this scale are essential if the average global temperature is to be kept below a 2 degree Celsius rise. The study released by the Pontifical Academy of the Sciences entitled The Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene called the 2 degrees increase the ‘guard rail,’ though the scientists involved would prefer if the average increase was kept bellow 1.5 degree Celsius rather than 2 degrees.
At COP 16th in Cancun, Mexico in late November and early December 2010, the parties agreed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions but no number or time line was specified. This is very worrying because a study by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) found that the pledges made by the Parties in Cancun are insufficient to realize the goal of the Convention. These pledges are not enough to stabilization greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at the level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate systems. UNEP assume that emission levels at 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would probably keep the average temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius. Under a business-as-usual scenario which is likely if there is no binding agreement at Durban, carbon emissions could reach 56 gigatonnes of carbon which would create havoc in many parts of the world.
The stakes for the future of hundreds of millions of people and vital ecosystems are very high at Durban. Towards the end of his address President Zuma said that, given the urgency at stake, parties should strive to find solutions here in Durban. “You must work towards an outcome that is balance, fair and credible.”
Whether this can be achieves is questionable. COP 15 in Copenhagen received massive media coverage. The media coverage of Durban thus far has been minimal.
This is the third in a series of reports on the UN Climate Change conference curreently taking place in Durban prepared by Sean McDonagh SSC. Social Justice Ireland is very grateful to Sean for providing these updates. The previous two may be accessed at the end of this report.
The Meeting of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Conference on Climate Change or COP17 here in Durban is similar to many of the other COPs which I have attended in Nairobi, Bali, Poznan, Copenhagen and Cancun and yet, I discern a very different mood among the participants in Durban. Organisations from civil society are here in force, challenging the politicians to come up with a fair, ambitious and binding treaty which will secure the future for ordinary people. But the question is; are politicians listening to climate change concerns anywhere across the globe? Are the distractions of the current financial and banking crises just too overpowering?
At breakfast this morning here in St. Philomena’s Conference Centre in Durban where I am staying, more than 40 women from a variety of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) were preparing to join in the March to the Conference Centre which is scheduled to begin around 1 pm. Their conversations were animated and focused as these people, many from a rural background here in South Africa, are already feeling the effects of climate change in their lives. They are fearful about what the future might bring, and well they might be, as the momentum which drove previous COPs seems to be waning. Everyone knows that, if the Durban Conference fails, it will be difficult to get a satisfactory international agreement on the measures which will be necessary to prevent an average rise in global temperature of between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius by 2100. This would be a disaster for almost every country and ecosystem in the world.
United States of America
The United States is the largest economy in the world and its citizens are the largest per capita emitters of greenhouses gases in the world. While the US signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the US Senate never ratified the treaty. During the Presidency of George W. Bush, the US negotiators spent much of their time at the various COPs either trying to deny climate change was happening or, in the later years of his presidency, espousing scepticisms about its consequences.
The election of President Obama seemed like the dawning of a new era. In his campaign speeches he understood and accepted the scientific underpinning for global warming. He appeared to grasp the seriousness of climate change for many countries both in the global South and even for the US itself and, above all, he promised to lead rather than impede an international consensus for dealing with it.
Unfortunately, those bright hopes of 2009 have now turned to dust. Local politics in the US and the rise of the Tea Party candidates has effectively pushed climate change off the political agenda. On the third day of the Durban Conference, the US chief negotiator Jonathan Pershing, himself a scientist who was formerly involved with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC), made the implausible statement that the current collective mitigation targets are sufficient to avoid a rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius. In addition given its greenhouse emission status the US’s own mitigation targets are woefully weak. They are set to achieve a 17% reduction below their 2005 level by 2020. It would appear that in the political calculus of the Obama administration, re-election is now the top priority, dealing with climate change is a task for someone else.
The unwillingness of the US to accept any binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions unless the newly emerging economies of China and India agree to similar measures is totally irresponsible and immoral. The US seems to forget that it and other Northern economies, are responsible for 75% of historic or accumulated carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The prosperity which many people in Northern economies experienced in the late 19th century and especially in the second half of the 20th century depended directly on burning fossil fuel. The unfortunate consequence is that it increased the percentage of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which has led directly to our present crisis. True, many people were unaware of the connection between burning fossil fuel, greenhouse gases and climate change, but that did not change the outcome.
In traditional moral terms the US and other Northern countries are being called to make restitution for the damage which their greenhouse gas emissions have caused to millions of poor people around the world. Unfortunately, the problem will continue and become more serious unless there are ambitious and binding agreements to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in the next few years. Putting off such decisions for a decade or so will be disastrous. The moral issues here come under a relatively modern category called intergenerational justice. The core issue is that this generation has the power to increase global temperatures significantly and, as a consequence, make life difficult for every succeeding generation of human beings and the children of every other creature as Fr. Thomas Berry wrote many years ago. Once a tipping point is reached it is difficult and even possibly in historical time to reverse the process. Runaway climate change will introduce a new geological era. This is highlighted in the title of the Pontifical Academy of the Sciences’ recent document on climate change which is entitled The Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene.
Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) are calling politicians to account
Members of CSOs in the United States are concerned about the Obama administration’s lack of leadership on climate change. In the run-up to the Durban Conference, 16 major CSOs including Greenpeace, Oxfam America and the Worldwide Fund for Nature challenged the US Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton to alter the US stance on climate change. The letter called on the US negotiators to withdraw the stringent preconditions it is expecting poor and emerging countries to meet in return for the US agreed to support a realistic mandate for negotiations on a long-term climate regime. These include legal symmetry, a clear process for poor countries to gradually take on mitigations commitments similar to those which should currently apply to rich countries, such as the US. According to these CSOs, the most negative element in the US’s negotiating position in Durban is its position on climate financing.
Since the Nairobi COP in 2006, there have been slow and painstaking negotiations about the best and most efficient way to make serious amounts of money available to poor countries which will have to adapt to the inevitable impact of climate change. For some countries it will mean, higher costs to deal with severe weather events, for other counties it will mean smaller food harvests, for others shrinking glacier will cause water shortages for major cities and vital agricultural crops. The Green Climate Fund seemed to have been agreed at Cancun in 2010. Here at Durban the US appears to want to reopen these negotiations. In contrast, the European wants the Green Climate Fund to begin delivering funds to poor countries next year.
Tomorrow I will look at what seems to be happening on the EU front.
Sean McDonagh's second update from Durban may be accessed here.
Sean McDonagh's first update from Durban may be accessed here.
This is the first in a series of reports on the UN Climate Change conference curreently taking place in Durban prepared by Sean McDonagh SSC. Social Justice Ireland is very grateful to Sean for providing these updates.
One of the pitfalls which many of us who have attended the United Nations Climate Conference for years fall into is that we assume that the general reader has a good grasp of the history of these conferences and the issues which have been thrashed out during the past 20 years. On this the third day of the Durban Conference a brief history might be helpful.
Countries from across the globe began to address the problems associated with global warming and climate change at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in June 1990. At that meeting it was agreed to set up a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNCCC). This body was tasked with setting out a framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic (human-induced) interference with the climate system.” Unfortunately, due mostly to the intervention of the United States under President George Bush (senior), no target or timelines were set. The Convention came into force in March 1994. (John Vidal, “Revealed: which oil giant influenced Bush,” The Guardian, June 8th 2005, page 5. )
The next significant milestone took place at the UNFCCC Conference in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997. The delegates agreed to a Protocol which committed industrialised countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The target which was set was a reduction of between 5.2% and 7% below their 1990 levels in the period between 2008 and 2012. What became known as the Kyoto Protocol came into force on February 16th 2005. It ends next year in 2012.
In the run-up to the Kyoto Conference a group of industries known as the ‘Carbon Club’ ran advertisements in the US media aimed at blocking the US from signing the Kyoto Protocol. Many of these companies, especially those involved in the energy sector, were afraid that their profits would plummet if there was a drop in fossil fuel consumption. Among them were household names such as Exxon-Mobile, Shell, Ford and General Motors. They used all kinds of tactics – corporate PR, psychology, mass media manipulation techniques and political muscle to force the Clinton administration to do their will. Even though the US delegation which was led by Vice-President Al Gore signed the Kyoto Protocol, the Byrd-Hagel resolution which claimed that the Protocol would damage the US economy was passed by the US Senate by an overwhelming 95 votes to 0). Within a few months of being elected President, George W Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol. Document leaked to the press at the time of the Gleneagles meeting of the G7 in June 2005 in Scotland made it clear that President George W Bush’s decision was due in part to the pressure from Exxon-mobile, the world’ most powerful oil company.
As the work of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol process became more intricate subsidiary bodies were set up to help those involved in various aspects of the negotiations. One of these is called the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA). Another was the Subsidiary Body for Scientific Advice (SBSTA). These and scores of other acronyms are used constantly in negotiations and discussions to the point that even veterans who have attended UNFCCC meetings need a glossary to understand which is being said!
The next most significant UNFCCC took place in December 2007 on the beautiful island of Bali in Indonesia. There result of that meeting became known as the Bali Road Map. It put the spotlight on the three areas which need to be addressed in any climate treaty. Given the dire consequences of a significant increase in global temperature, the primary focus of the UNFCCC is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible. In the language of the UNFCCC this is called mitigation. Secondly, the plight of those who are already being affected by climate change must be addressed. Many of the countries which did least to cause climate change will be most affected by it. One has only to think what will happen to the water supply of Lima if the glaciers on the Andes disappear? Responding to this is referred to as Adaptations. The final plank in the strategy is called Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM). During the past 200 years the prosperity of rich countries was based on having cheap fossil fuel readily available. China and India are now following the same pathway. Poor countries have a right to develop, but if they opt for the fossil fuel route it will be a disaster for everyone. To avoid this happening, rich countries must make clean energy technologies available to poor countries.
Sean McDonagh's first update on the Durban may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of Ireland's policy on the developing world as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
The financial crisis has driven millions of people into poverty and put many more at risk according to a new report published by Oxfam. Written by Katerina Kyrili and Matthew Martin of Development Finance International this report shows that the world's poorest countries are struggling to fill huge budget deficits with less help from richer nations.
With the deadline for meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) of slashing poverty just five years away, and aid budgets under pressure from the downturn, Oxfam is stressing the urgent need for new sources of help, such as a 'Robin Hood tax' on financial transactions.
The report therefore urges the international community to make strong new aid commitments at the Millennium Summit in September 2010, funded by financial transaction taxes or other innovative financing:
Oxfam argues that much of the focus during and after the credit crunch has been on the fate of richer countries such as Greece, the US, Britain and Ireland, while continued growth in emerging markets such as Brazil and India has largely been taken as a sign the crisis was restricted to developed nations.
But this study of the budgets of 56 low-income countries, many of them in Africa, concludes that they too propped up their economies by borrowing in the earlier part of the crisis, and have now been left with gaping budget deficits.
Ireland is heading for the fourth year in a row in which its Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) Budget will fall as a percentage of Gross National Product. According to the annual report of Irish Aid just published, in 2010 Ireland’s Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) budget as a percentage of Gross National Product fell for the third year in a row.
In 2010 €675 million was spent on ODA equivalent to 0.53 per cent of GNP. This was a reduction from 0.59 per cent in 2008 and 0.55 per cent in 2009. The 2011 budget is expected to be €659 million, a drop of €16 million on 2010 and a reduction to 0.52 per cent of GNP. If this expectation proves to be accurate then Ireland’s ODA will have fallen four years in a row. This is a totally unacceptable situation.
Every year a series of public evening lectures is hosted in Trinity known as the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) Lecture Series. The goal of these lectures is to broaden the reach of development education in Trinity to the general public. This section provides information about upcoming or current lecture series as well as details and resources relating to previous series. This year's series runs on Thursday nights. They are open to all and free of charge. Full details here.
On June 10, 2010 former Taoiseach Dr. Garret FitzGerald launched “Act Now on 2015”, a campaign led by 61 anti-poverty organisations to call on Government to deliver on its promise to reach the UN target of spending 0.7% of national income on overseas aid by 2015. Social Justice Ireland is a member of this campaign.
The recent spring European Council (i.e. heads of Government in the EU) gave the final go-ahead for a comprehensive package of measures to preserve the financial stability of the eurozone and to strengthen economic governance. Both of these initiatives have implications for Ireland and raise serious questions concerning the real commitments of the European Council and the EU generally to proceed in a balanced and inclusive manner.
The OECD published its Economic Outlook #89 on May 25, 2011. Material made available on the web may be accessed here.
On the same day the OECD published an economic forecast summary for Ireland. The summary may be accesed here.

An overview of the borrowing needs of fifteen major developed-country governments in 2011 shows that Ireland is the country in the middle in borrowing needs when measured as a percentage of GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Japan, USA, Greece, Belgium Italy, France and Portugal all require a higher percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to finance their budgets in 2011. All require more than 20 per cent of GDP. Ireland is next and It will require less than 20 per cent of GDP according to the IMF. Ireland is followed by Spain, Canada, UK, Germany, Finland, Sweden and Australia. The diagram below provides the details.
Ireland's negotiations with the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF were concluded on Sunday, November 28, 2010. The bottom line is that Ireland's tax-payers, poor people and vulnerable people are to take the full impact of the 'hit' for bank losses. While it is clear that Ireland's fiscal situation is grave and must be addressed effectively, it is simply not acceptable that Ireland's poor, sick and vulnerable people should have to pay for any part of losses incurred by banking gamblers be they Irish, German, French or any others.
The agreement involves:
€85bn to be available to Ireland of which €17.5bn will come from Ireland (i.e. €67.5bn from outside Ireland)
Th €85bn is broken down as follows:
1. €35bn for banks –
- €10bn immediately for bank recapitalisation
- €25bn as banking contingency
2. €50bn for Ireland's Budget deficits in the 2011-2014/5 period
€17.5bn will be made available from Ireland’s own resources. This is to be made up of:
- €5bn Ireland’s own resources/reserves
- €12.5bn from the National Pension Reserve Fund
It appears that Ireland’s own contribution is to be the first €17.5bn drawn down
The end-date for the adjustment process has now been extended to 2015.
Not clear what the implications are for the 4-Year Plan (due to end in 2014)
Interest rate is 5.8%
Average length of loans will be up to 7.5 years.
Government claiming that this agreement will stabilise the national debt
A crucial issue is that bond-holders will not have to take any part of the hit.
Details of the Bailout Programme available here: fiscal adjustments, structural reforms and bank measures
The statement by the Eurogroup is available here.
The statement by the Eurogroup and the Finance ministers Council (ECOFIN) is available here.
The Government's statement is available here.
László Andor, the European commissioner for employment and social affairs, has raised concerns that the austerity programmes being developed by national governments to address the present crisis will lead to deeper recession rather than recovery in Europe.
He is concerned that the speedy responses being required from member states to address the issue of sovereign debt have not been sufficiently carefully thought through and may have a very negative impact on Europe’s social development.
In an
interview with the European Voice
newspaper he raised concerns that recent policy developments were prioritising austerity measures over social concerns. These developments could threaten the EU’s fragile recovery by for example creating a risk of a double-dip recession in parts of the EU that could impact on the whole EU. It is of interest in this context that the Commissioner used to be a director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development as well as an adviser to the World Bank.
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has published a study in which it recommends that the way to raise Ireland's employment so as to avoid the persistence of the current high unemployment rate is to reduce unemployment payments over time. It believes this should be supported by stricter job search requirements, additonal resources for FAS (to assist these job searches) and a reduction in the minimum wage. This study was written by IMF staff (including Ajai Chopra who is leading the IMF team in Ireland). The full text can be accessed here. The recommendations for Ireland are on page 22.
This study's recommendations to Ireland raise some interesting questions.
It isn't often that we cite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as vindicating our position but information revealed by the Department of Finance in response to a freedom of information request does exactly that. The IMF concluded that the establishment of the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will do nothing to increase bank lending. This was exactly the claim made by Social Justice Ireland several months ago when it published a statement on NAMA and related issues.
The whole €80 billion-plus project has been promoted by the Government on the basis that, once the banks have been rescued from their troubled land and development assets, they will start lending. Social Justice Ireland's position was stated as follows:
"Government is rightly concerned with the lack of credit being made available for small businesses across the country. In devising a strategy to address this problem Government is simply relying on Ireland’s two largest banks to give priority to supplying credit to businesses rather than seeking to improve their own balance sheets. This reliance is misplaced. Government’s proposals place no obligation on the banks to provide loans to small businesses once they are rescued at tax-payers expense.
An effective way of ensuring credit was made available for small businesses would be for Government to buy back the ICC Bank it sold to Bank of Scotland (Ireland) some years ago. This was a bank focused specifically on providing credit to small businesses and it had a long track record of doing this successfully. Buying it back, which would cost the Government a very small percentage of what it is proposing to spend on NAMA, would provide Government with the required mechanism to address the credit problem being experienced by small and medium businesses."
The IMF views were provided to the Department of Finance in April 2009 but were not published until 2010.
Ireland is heading for bankruptcy, which would be catastrophic for Ireland according to Morgan Kelly in his op-ed article in the Irish Times on May 7, 2011.
Kelly views are important to note as he accurately forecast the housing bubble collapse and the subsequent disintegration of Ireland's economy. Here he argues that Ireland is heading towards a prolonged and chaotic national bankruptcy.
The full article may be accessed here in pdf format
The full article may be accessed on the Irish Times site here
RESPONSES to Professor Kelly's article may be accessed here.
Here are a number of responses following from Professor Morgan Kelly's critique of the IMF/ECB/EC Bailout Agreement with Ireland. Morgan Kelly is Professor of Economics at University College Dublin.
Professor Patrick Honohan, Governor of the Central Bank, - his own response as reported in the Irish Times may be accessed in pdf format here.
This item may be read in its original web location here.
Is Morgan Kelly right? The responses of 10 prominent economists, as published in the Irish Times, may be accessed here in pdf format.
This item may be read in its original web location here.
Professor Philip Lane, Professor of International Macroeconomics at Trinity College, Dublin, argues that Coalition strategy may give Ireland the safety net it needs. This article, as published in the Irish Times, may be accessed here in pdf format.
Social Justice Ireland has claimed that Government’s proposals to adjust Ireland’s budget in the next four years is unjust and unfair. Government is proposing to achieve adjustments of €15bn by 2014 through taking €10bn in cuts and only €5bn in tax increases. Ireland’s total tax-take is one of the lowest in the European Union. It is possible to raise Ireland’s total tax-take by €10bn and still remain a low-tax country. Instead Government proposes to target the poor, the sick and the low-paid while protecting the rich and the strong. This approach is disgraceful, unjust and unfair. The following are key facts that are being ignored by government and many commentators in the current debate.

Social Justice Ireland states that while both the IMF and the Government have said that poor people will be protected and that everything must be on the table when decisions are made concerning the adjustments required in these difficult times, this is accompanied by an insistence that:
Government liabilities are now in excess of €151bn. Below is a chart setting out the scale of Government liabilities as of the end of September 2010. The table is taken from the Central Bank's Quarterly Financial Accounts for Ireland (Q1-2002 - Q3 2010) published on February 2, 2011. The Irish Government deficit includes capital injections into Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide Building Society, and EBS of €22.9 billion, €2.7 billion and €0.35 billion respectively, between Q4 2009 and Q3 2010. The remaining Government capital injections into the banking sector will be included in the Q4 2010 accounts. Capital injections into Bank of Ireland and AIB are treated as financial transactions (or investments) in Government accounts and therefore do not impact the deficit.

The full Central Bank Report may be downloaded here.
Social Justice Ireland has challenged the current efforts by many vested interests to protect the corporate sector while allowing the weak, the vulnerable, the ill and the working poor take the hit for the reckless actions of greedy bankers, incompetent regulators and an inept government. It is important to remember that much of Ireland’s current problems were caused by elements within the corporate sector. Social Justice Ireland believes that the corporate sector, like everyone else, should make a contribution towards rescuing Ireland from its current very difficult situation. We have proposed a levy of 2.5% be placed on corporate profits until Ireland is in a position where it does not need this additional income to pay its way.
While both the IMF and the Government have said that poor people will be protected and that everything must be on the table when decisions are made concerning the adjustments required in these difficult times, this is accompanied by an insistence that:
This approach is hypocritical and deeply unjust. Either everything is on the table or it is not.
By taking so many things off the table the IMF and the Government have created a situation where most of the adjustments will be made at the expense of the weak, the sick, the vulnerable and the working poor.
It appears that the decisions being made will ensure that those who are rich and/or strong will not be asked to make sacrifices while those who are weak and poor will bear the brunt of the required adjustments. This can be seen clearly in the endless media commentaries which assert that government must:
Social Justice Ireland fully acknowledges the gravity of the present situation which has been caused by a variety of groups including bankers, regulators and government itself. Very difficult decisions must be made and made quickly if the present decline is to be reversed. It is in the interest of all Irish people that prudent decisions be made now.
However, those decisions must be fair and just. They must also be seen to be fair and just. What Government and the IMF are proposing to do is deeply unfair and unjust. It is totally unacceptable that Government and the IMF target the sick, the poor and the vulnerable to rescue Ireland while some of those who are among Ireland’s richest and/or most powerful groups and who contributed in a major way to the current crisis are exempted from making any contribution to rectifying the situation.
Social Justice Ireland believes a fairer future is possible. We urge Government and the IMF to act fairly and justly in the coming weeks and months as they design a pathway out of the present difficult situation.
November 25, 2010
The OECD published an economic forecast summary for Ireland on May 25, 2011 as part of its Economic Outlook #89 published on the same day. The summary may be accessed here.
The latest Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin has produced growth predictions that are substantially lower than those contained in the Government’s Budget. This brings the Government’s other predictions into serious question. Readers will recall that Social Justice Ireland predicted this would be the case when the Budget was published.
The Central Bank is now predicting that in 2011, GDP growth will be in the region of 1 per cent, rising to around 2.3 per cent in 2012. The Government's predictions on which it based its Budget were 1.7% and 3.2%.
According to the Central Bank, GNP is expected to be broadly unchanged this year, with a return to positive growth, in the region of 1.5 per cent, projected for 2012. The Government's comparable predictions are 1.0% and 2.6%.
These projections represent a significant downward revision to those published by the Central Bank in the last Quarterly Bulletin, which were compiled on the basis of a much smaller €3 billion fiscal consolidation in 2011 than the one currently budgeted, and on the basis of continued market access to funding on reasonable terms.
Social Justice Ireland continues to believe that the EU/IMF Bailout should be renegotiated to ensure the time-scale is lengthened, the cost reduced and job-creation promoted. Otherwise the targets contained in the Bailout will not be met and the recovery will be long-delayed.
The full text of the Central Bank's Quarterly Bulletin may be downloaded here.
The EU Autumn Economic Forecast makes stark reading for Ireland and poses serious questions about Government’s reliance on exports as the basis of Ireland’s recovery. It also calls into doubt the basis on which Budget 2012 is being developed.
According to the Autumn Economic Forecast, published on November 10, 2011 the recovery of the EU economy has stopped. Sharply deteriorated confidence is affecting investment and consumption, weakening global growth is holding back exports, and urgent fiscal consolidation is weighing on domestic demand.
GDP in the EU is now projected to stagnate until well into 2012. Growth for the whole of 2012 is forecast at about ½%. By 2013, a return to slow growth of about 1½% is expected.
No real improvements are projected for labour markets, and unemployment is forecast to remain at the current high level of around 9½%. Inflation is set to return below 2% over the coming quarters. Fiscal consolidation is forecast to progress with public deficits set to decline to just above 3% by 2013 under an assumption of unchanged policies.
For Ireland, GDP growth is expected to be 1.1% in 2011 thanks to a strong export performance and despite contracting domestic demand. It's expected to be the same in 2012 but to rise to 2.3% in 2013. However these projections are precarious when our exports are reliant on a buoyant market and with the forecast for stagnation within the Eurozone countries we will be reliant on strong growth and demand in the rest of the global economy particularly in the UK and the US. At present this looks highly unlikely.
Our reliance on export led growth will not address the issue of continually falling domestic demand. Minister Noonan in his Medium Term Fiscal Statement acknowledged that “it is essential that domestic demand recovers. Indeed it is only when consumer spending and investment start increasing again, that appreciable, broadly-based employment growth will recommence.”
Inflation is expected to rise to 1.1% in 2011, up from -1.6% in 2010, driven by external energy and administered service increases. Inflation of 0.7% is now expected for 2012 and 1.2% for 2013. In the medium term, core inflation in Ireland is likely to remain below the euro area average.
The Irish labour market is showing little sign of recovery. Employment contracted by 2.1% in the year to the second quarter of 2011 and the monthly measure of unemployment has risen gradually through the year to 14.3% in September. Job growth has restarted in some export-oriented sectors but this is not likely to offset the continuing contraction in construction and public service employment this year or next. By 2013 unemployment is expected to drop only to 13.6%. This is an incredibly worrying statistic and shows that Government attempts to create jobs and boost domestic demand have so far failed.
Social Justice Ireland has presented its proposal which would see 100,000 part time jobs created for those who are long term unemployed to various government ministers and urges them to act on it immediately before the unemployment problem worsens further.
The full report for Ireland is available here
The full report for Europe is available here
Social Justice Ireland’s PTJO proposal is available here
Government’s Medium Term Fiscal Statement is available here
Is the Irish Government’s economic outlook for the period to 2015 credible given the Central Bank’s most recent forecast on economic growth? Social Justice Ireland has serious doubts in this regard.

As the 20 group of the world's wealthiest counttries prepare to meet later this week, Social Justice Ireland believes that the endless focus on economic growth while failing to address issues ranging from sustainabiility to fair distribution to changing the basis on which a deeply flawed banking system operates does not augur well for most people for the forseeable future. The OECD has stated that bold decisions are needed from the G20 leaders meeting in Cannes this week to get the global economy back on track.
In a Briefing Note published for the G20 meeting in the coming week the OECD is projecting growth in the Eurozone economies of 0.3% and 1.8% in the US in 2012. Given Ireland's dependence on exports to generate growth in the coming year these numbers do not engender confidence. A further statistic to cause concern is the projection that i n the coming year unemployment in the G20 countries is set to rise slightly. Below we outline the analysis and proposals contained in the OECD publication. Social Justice Ireland's analysis of what the Irish Government should do is set out in our recent Policy Briefing which may be accessed here.
Presenting the OECD special Briefing Note ahead of the Cannes Summit, Mr Gurría, Secretry General of the OECD, said without decisive action the outlook is gloomy. The OECD projects GDP growth to remain weak in the advanced G20 economies over the next two years while the pace of activity in the major emerging markets is likely to be lower than in the pre-crisis period.
Please note: what follows is the OECD's analysis as published on October 31, 2011.
The near-term outlook presented by the OECD
Uncertainties regarding the short-term economic outlook have risen dramatically in recent months. A number of events, notably related to the euro area debt crisis and fiscal policy in the United States, are likely to dominate economic developments in the coming two years. In an “events-free” scenario and in the absence of comprehensive policy action to resolve current problems, real GDP is projected to grow by about 3.9% this year, 3.8% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013 on average in G20 countries. This average masks a wide divergence among country groupings, and emerging-market economies are much more buoyant, despite some softening. In the euro area, a marked slowdown with patches of mild negative growth is likely. Growth is also projected to remain weak in the United States, with a gradual pick-up from 2012 towards the end of the projection period. Unemployment is set to remain high in many advanced countries.
A better upside scenario can materialise if the policy measures that were announced at the Euro Summit of 26 October are implemented promptly and forcefully. These measures go in the right direction and could help restore confidence and create positive feed-back effects that could trigger a scenario of stronger growth.
In contrast, the outlook would be gloomier if the commitments made by EU Leaders fail to restore confidence and a disorderly sovereign debt situation were to occur in the euro area with contagion to other countries, and/or if fiscal policy turned out to be excessively tight in the United States. OECD analysis suggests that a deterioration of financial conditions of the magnitude observed during the global crisis (between the latter half of 2007 and the first quarter of 2009) could lead to a drop in the level of GDP in some of the major OECD economies of up to 5% by the first half of 2013.
Appropriate policy responses according to the OECD
To resolve the euro area crisis, it is important to clarify and implement fully and decisively the measures announced on 26 October to break the link between sovereign debt and banking distress, to deal with Greece, to ensure that the sovereign debt crisis does not spread to other European countries and to secure appropriate capitalisation and funding for banks. Detailed information is needed on how the package will be implemented.
In the advanced G20 economies, interest rates should remain on hold or, where possible, be reduced; notably in the euro area. Central banks should continue to provide ample liquidity to ease financial market tensions. Further monetary relaxation, including through unconventional measures, would be warranted if downside risks intensify. In the emerging-market economies, the stance of monetary policy should be guided by the outlook for growth and inflation, which remains comparatively high.
Strong, credible medium-term frameworks for fiscal consolidation and durable growth are needed to restore confidence in the longer-term sustainability of the public finances and to build budgetary space to deal with short-term economic weakness. Those advanced economies with sounder public finances can provide additional counter-cyclical support.
Structural reforms are essential to boost the growth potential of G20 countries, to tackle high unemployment and to rebalance global demand. In view of weak growth in the near term and impaired fiscal positions in most advanced economies, priority should be given to reforms that offer comparatively strong short-term activity gains and facilitate longer-term fiscal consolidation.
In Cannes, G20 leaders will discuss an Action Plan with bold commitments for mutually reinforcing macroeconomic policies and structural reforms. In 2008, G20 leaders rose to the challenge with a clear and coherent plan and we avoided a second Great Depression. Today, the adoption and implementation of the Action Plan is just as imperative to restore confidence through decisive actions in specific countries and regions.
The projections reported in the OECD Briefing Note are preliminary and will be updated in the OECD Economic Outlook No. 90 to be released on 28 November 2011.
Social Justice Ireland's analysis of what the Irish Government should do is set out in our recent Policy Briefing which may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland is deeply disappointed with some of the recommendations of the OECD’s latest report on Ireland. In particular we are disappointed with a number of recommendations that would seriously damage poor people, especially those who are unemployed. The report contains mixed messages, some of which are at odds with Ireland’s current reality. The research on which some of these recommendations are made is deeply flawed. Some of these recommendations are also at odds with the ESRI report on Tax, Welfare and Employment just published.
The latest figures for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita in EU Member States have been published by Eurostat. They show Ireland's GDP per capita in Purchasing Power Standard (PPS) is 125% of the EU average. Only Luxembourg and the Netherlands arae higher. Denmark and Austria are tied with Ireland. All other EU countries have lower GDP per capita in 2010.Even when measured as a percentage of GNP (Gross National Product) Ireland is still above the the EU average and ranks in the top dozen countries.
This data raises a very fundamental question: as this is the situation why is Ireland engaging in a process of dispossessing poor people so as to pay back gambling, wayward banks? Isn't there more than enough resource available to address Ireland's current difficulties without further victimising those who are poor and/or vulnerable?
The full text of the Eurostat newsrelease may be aqccessed here.
Government should introduce a student loan scheme for 3rd level students in Budget 2012. There are strong arguments from an equity perspective that those who benefit from higher education, and who can afford to contribute to the costs of their higher education, should do so.
This principle is well established internationally and is an important component of funding strategies for many of the better higher education systems across the world. 3rd level graduates earn more than non-graduates throughout their lives. It is only fair that they contribute to this advantage which 3rd level provides.
Social Justice Ireland believes that Government should introduce a system in which
In this system
Such a scheme would reduce Government expenditure by €445m on a full-year basis. Social Justice Ireland believes that of this saving €120m should go towards primary level and adult literacy programmes.
Education can be an agent for social transformation. We believe that education can be a powerful force in counteracting inequality and poverty while recognising that, in many ways, the present education system has quite the opposite effect.
According to Social justice Ireland, recent studies confirm the persistence of social class inequalities which are seemingly ingrained in the system. Even in the context of the increased participation and economic expansion of much of the last decade, the education system continues to mediate the vicious cycle of disadvantage and social exclusion between generations. When viewed in an international context, the most striking feature of investment in education in Ireland, relative to other OECD and EU countries, is our comparative under-investment in primary education relative to international norms (not to mention our very limited public funding for early childhood education). Irish investment in third-level education, which is widely regarded as inadequate, is approximately at the OECD average.
Primary School Funding
However, our public investment at second level and, in particular, at primary level is substantially below the OECD average and is among the lowest of all OECD countries when the expenditure is standardised as a percentage of GDP.
Social Justice Ireland proposes that €100m of what the Government would save through the changes proposed above should be allocated to primary education.
Adult Literacy
The Department of Educations policy for tackling literacy problems among adults is simply unacceptable accordidng to Social Justice Ireland. As part of the 2007 Government’s National Action Plan for Social Inclusion a target for adult literacy policy was set stating that “the proportion of the population aged 16-64 with restricted literacy will be reduced to between 10%-15% by 2016, from the level of 25% found in 1997” where “restricted literacy” is defined as level 1 on the International Adult Literacy Scale. People at this level of literacy are considered to possess “very poor skills, where the individual may, for example, be unable to determine the correct amount of medicine to give a child from information printed on the package” (OECD).
In numerical terms this implies that the aim of government policy is to have “only” 301,960 adults with serious literacy difficulties in Ireland in 2016.
We re-iterate our previous claims that this target is illogical, un-ambitious and suggests a complete lack of serious interest in addressing this problem.
The current target on adult literacy should be revised downwards dramatically and the necessary resources committed to ensuring that the revised target is met.
Social Justice Ireland proposes that an additional €20m should be allocated in Budget 2012 as the first tranche of additional funding to address adult literacy issues.
The issue of literacy has been contentious in recent times. Today NALA has published new research showing that 40% of Irish people have difficulty with numeracy. The Department of Education’s policy for tackling literacy problems among adults is in the opinion of Social Justice Ireland simply unacceptable. As part of the 2007 Government NAPinclusion document a target for adult literacy policy was set stating that “the proportion of the population aged 16-64 with restricted literacy will be reduced to between 10%-15% by 2016, from the level of 25% found in 1997” where “restricted literacy” is defined as level 1 on the International Adult Literacy Scale. People at this level of literacy are considered to possess “very poor skills, where the individual may, for example, be unable to determine the correct amount of medicine to give a child from information printed on the package” (OECD).
As table 1 shows, in numerical terms this implies that the aim of government policy is to have “only” 301,960 adults with serious literacy difficulties in Ireland by 2016. (These calculations are based on the lowest CSO population projection for 2016. The CSO’s calculation is based on their M0F2 demographic assumptions.)
Table 1:
Irish Government Adult Literacy Target for 2016
Adult population (under 65 yrs) in 2016
3,019,600
10% “restricted literacy” target
301,960
15% “restricted literacy” target
452,940
Source:
Calculated from CSO (2008:27) using the lowest CSO population projection for 2106 – the M0F2 population projection assumption.
The question needs to be asked, how can policy aim to be so unambitious? How will these people with serious literacy problems function effectively in the economy and society that is emerging in Ireland? How can they get meaningful jobs? In reality achieving this target could only be interpreted as representing substantial and sustained failure.
Overall, Social Justice Ireland believes that the government’s literacy target is illogical, un-ambitious and suggests a complete lack of interest in seriously addressing this problem. This is totally unacceptable in a society which, for the first time in its history, has the resources to tackle these problems effectively and comprehensively. This target on literacy should be revised downwards dramatically and the necessary resources committed to ensuring that the revised target is met.
Social Justice Ireland believes that the government should adopt a new and more ambitious target of: reducing the proportion of the population aged 16-64 with restricted literacy to 5 per cent by 2016; and to 3 per cent by 2020. This will still leave approximately 150,000 adults without basic literacy levels in 2016. However, this target is a more ambitious and realistic in the context of the future social and economic development of Ireland.
Some years ago an OECD survey found that a quarter of the Ireland’s adult population performed at the very lowest level of literacy. More recently, the OECD found that Ireland’s fifteen-year olds have the fifth best literacy rates out of 27 OECD countries. The reality appears to be that the literacy levels among Ireland’s school-going population is much higher than among the population generally. But this hides a more telling fact.
A 2004 report prepared for the Department of Education examined literacy standards in disadvantaged primary schools. This report by the Education Research Centre at St Patrick's College, Drumcondra found that more than 30 per cent of children in those schools suffer from severe literacy problems. Furthermore, it concluded that only a small minority of 12-year olds from these areas take a positive view of their own reading achievement (Eivers et al, 2004). A similar report by the same authors published in late 2005 reaffirmed these findings and also noted that in some poorer areas up to 50 per cent of pupils have literacy difficulties (Eivers et al, 2005).
Both reports highlight the two-tier pattern of Ireland’s educational outcomes. Many do very well. But it is also clear that a great many are being left behind. As identified in a 2003 report by the Department of Education and Science, “the worrying tendency for educational disadvantage to cluster in specific schools/areas and to be reproduced across generations raises serious equity issues and highlights the need for effective educational interventions”(2003:7).
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of education and educational disadvantage in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of environment and sustainability in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
The world’s aggregate level of effort on climate change mitigation is not in line with the science and existing country commitments are insufficient to adequately address climate change according to a major study on the issue. Social Justice Ireland welcomes the publication of a new paper by the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), with the support of the Government of Ireland. The report, entitled
Building the Climate Change Regime: Survey and Analysis of Approaches, reviews more than 130 proposals put forward by governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and academics to design a climate regime capable of delivering adequate mitigation action.
The paper is in response to studies which show that the world’s aggregate level of effort on climate change mitigation is not in line with the science and existing country commitments are insufficient to adequately address climate change.
The findings are crucial and timely because in less than a month countries will gather in Durban, South Africa, to try to reach agreement on an ambitious programme for tackling climate change. The report shows that there are far more options to counter climate change than acknowledged or promoted.
“The analysis provided in this new report offers many options that can happen either in the formal negotiations or as complementary measures elsewhere,” said Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Director of UNEP. “Options that can assist the more than 190 United Nations member states move quickly to harvest the opportunities of a transition to a climate resilient, low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy,” he added.
Building the Climate Change Regime clearly shows that there is a path forward for climate negotiators and offers a menu of options to national governments to mitigate climate change, both within and outside the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The report, which suggests that there are a number of pathways toward the desired level of ambition, also highlights the need to mobilize a range of public and private sector actors at the international, national and sub-national levels, who can contribute to climate governance, emission reductions, and adaptation investment.
“We know that more needs to be done globally to reach our long-term climate objectives. The reality is that there is no shortage of options and these proposals show the wealth of pathways available,” said Manish Bapna, Interim President of WRI. “At the upcoming climate meeting in Durban, countries have the opportunity to turn these ideas into action and start to bridge the ambition gap needed to truly have an impact.”
“The publication of the paper is very timely. It presents real options for addressing difficult political issues that still remain to be resolved in the international negotiations, not least in relation to the legal form of a future international agreement, the timeframe for agreement, and the need to increase the level of ambition on mitigation action”, said Phil Hogan, Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government, Ireland.
The report breaks down proposals into five key issues that have been major points of debate:
1. Options under the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition: Within the UNFCCC, new approaches could involve reducing the emissions of additional greenhouse gases, including additional sectors, and strengthening accounting rules for emissions and emission reductions. Utilizing tools within the UNFCCC can be beneficial because they minimize duplication and implementation costs while facilitating trust-building. However, other complementary options should also be considered.
2. Options outside the UNFCCC to Increase Ambition: Beyond the UNFCCC process, approaches include multilateral, plurilateral, bilateral and domestic strategies. These approaches offer prospects to mobilize actors around shared interests like development, trade, human rights, energy or food security. While these new strategies can generate greater ambition, one disadvantage of following approaches outside the UNFCCC is a risk of undermining existing processes and creating inefficiencies.
3. Means for Sharing the Mitigation Effort Under the UNFCCC: Various proposals could be used to allocate responsibility to bridge the gap between the current level of effort and scientific recommendations. Possible approaches include dividing mitigation efforts based on countries’ capacity or based on countries’ contribution to the problem. Setting a global carbon budget would help ensure that the climate regime meets the adequacy standard, but it could be difficult to implement new allocations for emission obligations.
4. The Role of Various Actors in Tracking Country Performance on Mitigation: Harmonized global accounting, reporting and verification standards are fundamental to progress. Two options are to use tools within the UNFCCC or outside the UNFCCC. Both options are discussed in detail.
5. The Legal Form of a Future Climate Agreement: The issue of legally binding commitments is central to the debates ahead of Durban. The paper presents multiple options for climate negotiators: to proceed without new, legally-binding commitments; to commit to achieving new legally-binding commitments immediately; or to strengthen the components of legal character over time to achieve new, legally-binding commitments as soon as possible.
An illustrative finding in the report is that it is possible to build upon existing UNFCCC processes to strengthen the climate regime and raise the overall level of ambition. For example, a review under the UNFCCC of aggregate progress towards the 2 degree goal could facilitate an increase in the ambition of countries’ commitments.
The UNFCCC can also provide a strengthened institutional framework, possibly binding in nature, to anchor, coordinate and review the commitments of countries.
“Many institutions and actors can play a part in the broader climate regime,” said Remi Moncel, Associate at WRI and one of the authors of the paper. “The proposals reviewed show that we can take an all-hands-on-deck approach where the UNFCCC and other actors work in tandem based on their respective strengths. We need to move the conversation from ‘we are not doing enough’ to ‘how can we do more collectively’, and these findings take us one step closer.”
Whilst a number of studies have demonstrated that the level of climate mitigation pledged to date is insufficient to limit temperature increases to 2 degrees C, this paper clearly demonstrates that there are a range of good ideas and options available that could help correct the course and move toward a safer and more stable climate.
To read the full report, visit: http://www.wri.org/project/moving-unfccc-forward.
Social Justice Ireland believes that a central initiative to promote environmental sustainability and tackle climate change should be the developmentof“satellite” or “shadow” nationalaccounts.
· Our present national accounts miss fundamentals such asenvironmental sustainability. Their emphasisisonGNP/GDPasscorecards of wealthandprogress.
· These measures, which came intowidespreaduse during WorldWarII,more orlessignore the environment, and completely ignore unpaidwork.Only money transactionsare tracked.
· Ironically,while environmental depletionisignored,the environmental costsof dealing withthe effectsof economicgrowth,suchascleaning up pollutionorcoping withthefelling ofrain forests,areaddedto,rather thansubtracted from,GNP/GDP. New scorecardsare needed.
To find out more about the World Resources Institute visit www.wri.org
To find out more about UNEP visit www.unep.org
Social Justice Ireland's views on sustainability and environment may be accessed here.
Comhar, Ireland’s Sustainable Development Council, has published its research report, ‘Creating Green Infrastructure for Ireland’ (August 24, 2010). The full report may be accessed here. A leaflet providing some key points may be accessed here.
The report states that green Infrastructure, through a properly functioning biodiversity, provides space for nature to deliver vital ecological services that underpin our quality of life. Green Infrastructure can be broadly defined as an interconnected network of green space that conserves natural ecosystem values and functions and provides associated benefits to human populations.
The report goes on to make the following key points:
Development has been a major driver of habitat degradation and biodiversity loss in Ireland. Biodiversity continues to decline because its value is not reflected in decision-making by business and government. While tools such as ‘Strategic Environment Assessment’
and ‘Environmental Impact Assessment’ have become part of our development process, they are essentially reactive measures. The introduction of a Green Infrastructure approach to planning policy would help to protect, create and manage green infrastructure in an integrated and proactive way. It would also enhance Ireland’s biodiversity and improve resilience to climate change. Green infrastructure should be a core part of Ireland’s planning policy, including local development
plans to the national spatial strategy. This would require mapping of natural ecosystems to provide evidence of the value of biodiversity and ecosystems to the economy and society.
Green infrastructure is a network of green spaces that help conserve natural ecosystems and provide benefits to human populations through water purification, flood control, carbon capture, food production and recreation. Such spaces include woodlands, coastlines, flood plains, hedgerows, city parks and street trees.
Green infrastructure mapping underpins the whole approach and, while there are data gaps and needs, a lot of useful information already exists at national and local levels. This should be made available in a coordinated and accessible way for use in green infrastructure mapping. The report shows how this mapping can be carried out and used to inform the development of green infrastructure. It contains three case studies that illustrate green infrastructure planning in different areas, namely urban, peri-urban and rural areas (North East Dublin City; Broadmeadow, Fingal, and Offaly-Westmeath). In addition, a national framework map was developed for the country, which highlights - among other elements - the existing biodiversity and ecological networks; water quality and flood attenuation infrastructure, and recreational / quality-of-life infrastructure. From these preliminary maps alone, the report highlights where the most valuable green infrastructures exist, and where there is potential to further develop and connect green infrastructure to maximise the potential benefits.
The report contains a range of recommendations to government on how green infrastructure can be developed in Ireland. These include the development of national guidance and objectives; the inclusion of green infrastructure in policy and legislation; green infrastructure maps, and measures to improve data availability and harmonisation.
For further information see the Comhar website - http://www.comharsdc.ie
The opening session of the UN Commision on Sustainable Development in New York saw the EU input totally ignoring the pollution, poisoning and impoverishment caused by many mining corporations.
Dr. Istvan Teplan, Senor Advisor of the Hungarian Secretary of State for the Environment, speaking on behalf of the European Union and its Members States, made a bland presentation in which he ignored the substantial evidence that illustrates the downside of much mining activity.
Social Justice Ireland believes this is a totally inadequate position for the EU to take at such an important conference and calls on the European Commission to ensure these issues are addressed and discussed honestly in this UN Commission meeting.
The 19th session of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development opened on May 2, 2011 and will continue until May 13th 2011. This website will carry regular reflections and updates from this session written by Sean McDonagh, a Columban missionary and well known author on sustainable development issues.
Sean McDonagh's observations on Day 1, May 2nd, 2011 may be accessed here.
The Commission on Sustainable Development emerged from Agenda 21, the programme for action for sustainable development adopted in June 1992 by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) also known as the “Rio Earth Summit.” Agenda 21 called for the creation of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD), to ensure an effective follow-up of the UNCED. The CSD has 53 member states.
This session of the Commission is very important as it prepares for Rio+20 - the Conference that will take place in Brazil on 4-6 June 2012 to mark the 20th anniversary of the 1992 conference in Rio de Janeiro, and the 10th anniversary of the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg. Reo+20 is envisaged as a Conference at the highest possible level, including Heads of State and Government or other representatives. The Conference will result in a focused political document.
The UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico, concluded on December 11, 2010. Fr Sean McDonagh, SSC, attended the conference. Below are his final reflections on the agreement reached at Cancun. His previous ten updates can also be accessed below.
Sean McDonagh's final reflections on Cancun conference may be accessed here.
His fourth update is available here. In it Sean assesses which road the Cancun conference will take.
His second update (November 39, 2010) may be accessed here.
His first update (November 27, 2010) may be accessed here.
Sean McDonagh is a Columban missionary who worked for many years in the Philliipines. He has written a number of book on the environment one of which, entitled Climate Change: The Challenge to Us All is especially relevant in the context of the Cancun conference. He has a PhD on this topic. We will upload his updates onto this site as they become available.
Sean McDonagh's 2nd reflection from the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development's 19th session in New York reflects on the ground-breaking 'Limits to Growth' study published in 1972 and charts developments over the intervening period.
Proposals seek to address a major issue but insist the cause of the current crisis must be allowed to continue
The latest proposals from the EU Heads of Government (published December 9, 2011) focus on reducing the borrowing of countries so that they will be forced to balance their budgets and pay their way in due course. This approach fails to recognise the real cause of the current crisis lay in the moral hazard situation that prevails in which banks and bondholders will never lose. Not alone does it not recognise the major cause of the problem but the agreement insists that this cause must be kept in place in the new dispensation. This is an approach that is doomed to long-term failure no matter what its short-term successes may be.
Developing an accurate analysis
The National Economic and Social Council (NESC) has published a report, The Euro: an Irish Perspective. It is part of a broader study being conducted by NESC on Ireland and the EU.
On the Euro the Council’s analysis shows that:
This analysis leads NESC to three main policy findings:
The NESC study makes the following further key points:
More Effective Euro Area Surveillance and Policy Coordination
For all its undoubted achievements, the design of the euro has not avoided the imbalances and deficit/debt crises it was intended to prevent. Working together, the
EU institutions and member states have taken a series of actions and decisions in response to the crisis in the euro area. While these steps have stabilised the situation, there remain severe challenges on three fronts, as listed above. In addition, large movements of currencies, such as sterling, can damage other member states and the single market.
Some see these problems and dangers as reason for immediate radical adjustment of the policy competences and decision making systems governing the euro and the EU. The more pragmatic and gradualist approach adopted by the European Council and the Commission includes a focus on better joint surveillance of economic policies, a closer link between fiscal policy and structural reform and a willingness, in certain circumstances, to adapt the division of labour between monetary and economic policies.
The reform process now underway must ensure that the governance mechanisms that the EU has made effective in other policy spheres, such as the internal market, are now brought to bear in the euro and associated economic policies.
If this reform process is undertaken in an open-minded way, it should be possible for the EU to discuss and agree a pragmatic combination of measures that protects the euro, addresses the deficit and debt problems, supports macroeconomic recovery and responds to the risk of further financial sector and exchange rate turbulence. Ireland has a strong interest in the success of this process.
Policy Lessons for Ireland
The severity of the current crisis should make us absolutely determined to learn the correct lessons and make the necessary changes in policies and behaviours. The principles which should inform fiscal policy are clear: it must be counter-cyclical, sustainable and respect the EU Stability and Growth Pact.
But our analysis shows that the understanding and application of these principles proved difficult in the past decade. It requires a correct assessment of the drivers of economic growth, the state of the economic cycle and identification of asset price bubbles. Uncertainty on these questions interacted with a set of unresolved political economy issues. Among these were: the appropriate scale of public services, the level and incidence of taxation, and approaches to housing supply and land management. The tax windfall created by the property boom allowed the unresolved issues to be glossed over and the macroeconomic perspective on fiscal policy to fade from view.
The policy lessons are hard, but also broad. They certainly demand that government maintain a clearer focus on stabilising the economic cycle and the long term sustainability of the public finances. But this requires a more thorough resolution of the distributional and structural tensions that create pressure for pro-cyclical fiscal policy and tend to crowd out clear analysis of the macroeconomic context. Structural policies—especially those that shape the supply of housing and other goods with a public dimension—can help to ensure that fiscal policy is counter-cyclical and sustainable.
The Need for Greater Understanding and Buy in
The problems in the euro area arise, in part, from insufficient policy, political and popular buy-in to the euro as a project for prosperity, stability and global governance. Member states did not see their voluntary sacrifice of monetary policy as a reason to heighten their collective engagement in those areas where they are the key actors— fiscal policy, employment and structural reform. Instead of balancing a deliberate loss of sovereignty in monetary policy with enhanced collective action on economic policy, they were inclined to balance it with assertions of sovereignty in the economic area.
In Ireland, once membership of the euro was achieved in 1999, there would seem to have been less, rather than more, recognition and acceptance of the disciplines inherent in a single currency.
Consequently, the future effectiveness of the single currency will depend on a higher degree political and popular identification with the euro and understanding of the disciplines and responsibilities inherent in membership. In the first instance, this requires that the member states and the EU institutions are seen to address the challenges facing the euro and the European economy. But building this shared understanding is a task for all economic and social groups who accept the euro as the context within which their goals must be pursued. They need to affirm the appropriateness of euro-area and EU-level mutual surveillance, benchmarking and learning.
The process of reform and policy correction at EU and national level is far fromcomplete. But the task set - to protect the euro, address the deficit and debt problems of member states, support macroeconomic recovery and sustainable growth, and address the risk of further financial sector turbulence—is worthwhile. Ireland’s interest lies in this reform process being open enough to address all the problems as they arise and moving to a successful resolution.
On December 9, 2011 EU leaders agreed on the key changes to be introduced to tighten fiscal discipline in the Eurozone and address the bloc's debt problems. These changes propose an intergovernmental agreement outside the EU legal framework.
According to the statement issued by the Eurozone Heads of State or Government: “Some of the measures described above can be decided through secondary legislation. The euro area Heads of State or Government consider that the other measures should be contained in primary legislation. Considering the absence of unanimity among the EU Member States, they decided to adopt them through an international agreement to be signed in March or at an earlier date. The objective remains to incorporate these provisions into the treaties of the Union as soon as possible. The Heads of State or Government of Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania indicated their intention to join in the process. The Heads of State or Government of the Czech Republic and Sweden are consulting their Parliaments before taking a decision.”
The full text of the statement may be accessed here.
Across all social classes, marriage rates have fallen among those aged in their 20s and risen among those aged over 30. This delay in entering marriage is partly due to people delaying forming any kind of partnership and partly due to the rapid increase in cohabitation among younger adults. These are some of the findings in a new study published by the ESRI and conducted by researchers from UCD, the ESRI and the University of Limerick.
A further finding of this study shows that by 2006, twice as many 25 year-olds were cohabiting as were married. Cohabitation is mostly a prelude to marriage, but an increasing number of cohabiting couples have children, suggesting cohabitation may be a preferred option among a minority.
The study, entitled Family Figures: Family dynamics and family types in Ireland, 1986-2006 provides the most detailed analysis to date of trends in the structure of Irish families. The study, funded by the Family Support Agency analysed Census data made available for the first time in cooperation with the Central Statistics Office. The report contains many new findings relating to trends in partnership and childbearing between 1986 and 2006.
The report deals with four aspects of family trends: (1) Singlehood and couple formation (2) Marital breakdown (3) Fertility (4) Lone parenthood. Results include:
On singlehood and couple formation:
Across all social classes, marriage rates have fallen among those aged in their 20s and risen among those aged over 30. This delay in entering marriage is partly due to people delaying forming any kind of partnership and partly due to the rapid increase in cohabitation among younger adults.
By 2006, twice as many 25 year-olds were cohabiting as were married. Cohabitation is mostly a prelude to marriage, but an increasing number of cohabiting couples have children, suggesting cohabitation may be a preferred option among a minority.
Nationality, ethnicity and religion are stronger influences on whether people cohabit or marry than socio-economic position, though people in the middle of the range for educational attainment are most likely to form partnerships.
The number of people in same-sex couples is still very small in absolute terms (0.15% of 15-59 year-olds), but is rising rapidly. Most are in their 30s and 40s and have high educational attainment.
On marital breakdown:
The marital breakdown rate increased rapidly in the 1990s but has levelled off in recent years and remains low by international standards. There is no evidence that the introduction of divorce in 1997 affected the trend in marital breakdown.
The cohort now in its 40s has a higher rate of marital breakdown than older cohorts. Breakdown is more common among lower socio-economic groups.
Among those whose marriage has broken down, divorce (as opposed to separation) is more common among the better off.
Married couples with one child have a 25-30% higher risk of marital breakdown than those with no children or with more than one child.
On fertility:
Most women now delay having children beyond 30 years of age, with the majority now having two or three. Over one-in-six women now have no children at age 45.
The higher a woman’s educational attainment, the longer she is likely to delay having children and the fewer children she is likely to have. Fertility rates also vary by region, nationality, ethnicity and religion.
On lone parenthood:
In 2006, 57% of lone parents had never married. The proportion of lone parents who experienced a marital breakdown was 35% and is increasing.
There is an extremely strong relationship between low educational attainment and the likelihood of becoming a never-married lone mother.
Women describing themselves as Catholic or Church of Ireland are also more likely to be never-married lone mothers.
There are over 10,000 lone fathers, almost all from broken marriages. We estimate the chances that the children of a broken marriage live with the father at one in eight.
Family Figures contains many more results relating to changes in family structures between 1986 - 2006. The authors discuss the implications of the findings in relation to a range of family policies, including the appropriate public supports available to different family structures, the rights and duties of unmarried partners and the need for a debate on Irish fertility rates.
The proposals from the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council to Government are simply not credible. In reality they would make a bad situation worse.
This first Fiscal Assessment Report, published on October 12, 2011, provides an assessment of the Government’s fiscal stance and projections as set out in the Stability Programme Update (SPU) last April, taking into account significant recent developments.
Main Findings of Report
Macroeconomic and Budgetary Assessment
• The macroeconomic and budgetary projections in the SPU were broadly appropriate at the time they were published last April. There have, however, been a series of significant developments since then that impact on Ireland’s medium-term budgetary outlook.
• Most of the main forecast agencies have recently revised down their projected growth rates for Ireland, in part reflecting increasing uncertainties about the global environment. This has clear downside risks.
• On the upside, the changes agreed by European leaders in July 2011 should result in interest savings of approximately €1 billion per year from 2012 to 2014. Furthermore, the funding requirement to the State as a result of banking recapitalisation is now likely to be approximately €3.5 billion lower than was envisaged last March.
• The Council estimates that an additional €400 million in discretionary adjustments would be required to meet the 8.6 per cent General Government deficit target for 2012. Nevertheless, the total discretionary adjustments planned in the SPU for the period 2012–2015 should still be sufficient to bring the General Government deficit below 3 per cent of GDP by 2015.
Assessment of Fiscal Stance
• The Government faces an unenviable balancing act in deciding the appropriate fiscal stance for 2012–2015: the domestic economy remains weak, while the debt and funding situation for Ireland will remain fragile for some time to come.
• Weighing up the different elements involved, retaining the current SPU targets as a percentage of GDP is viewed as within the range of appropriate courses of action.
• Relaxing the budgetary targets agreed in the programme with EU/IMF is not a viable option, given the need to safeguard hard won gains and the creditworthiness constraints imposed by both the market and official creditors.
• The Council’s main conclusion is that there is a strong case for a strengthening of the fiscal consolidation effort beyond that targeted in the SPU. The Council believes that a General Government deficit target of the order of 1 per cent of GDP for 2015 would be appropriate. The Government’s current target in the SPU is a deficit of 2.8 per cent.
Other Findings of Report
• In the case of 2012, the Council suggests only a relatively modest reduction in the targeted General Government deficit, from 8.6 to 8.4 per cent of GDP. This would imply, taking into account the range of economic developments since April, increasing the required adjustment measures from the SPU plan from €3.6 billion to €4.4 billion in 2012.
• For 2012-2015, the Council estimates that additional adjustment measures of approximately €4 billion will be needed to meet the 1 per cent General Government deficit target put forward by the Council.
• This suggestion is not made lightly, given the painful adjustment measures taken since 2008. However, on balance the Council believes that a more rapid restoration of sound public finances, as well as being highly desirable in its own right, will have important favourable effects on the country’s creditworthiness. It would also provide a degree of insurance that the existing programme targets will be met. The longer term implications for the economic and financial health of the country should not be underestimated.
• It is important for policymakers not to reduce their options in order to achieve the necessary consolidation by selectively putting certain measures – e.g., tax rates, social welfare rates, and public sector pay rates – out of bounds.
The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council was established in June 2011. The Council’s mandate includes providing an assessment of the appropriateness of the fiscal stance set out by the Government and its economic and budgetary projections.
Members of the Fiscal Advisosy Council: John McHale (Chair), Sebastian Barnes, Alan Barrett, Donal Donovan, Róisín O’Sullivan.
The full text of the Fiscal Council's First Report may be accessed here.
In recent decades little attention has been paid to issues concerning the future. However, the future, how it should be shaped and who should be involved in shaping it has never been more significant. Since 2007 the world’s economy has been in turmoil and our political systems have failed to deal with these difficulties in a fair and just manner. Questions regarding the shape of Ireland’s future are now critically important.
If we want to leave behind a sustainable Ireland, a country where economic development, social equity and sustainability go hand in hand then we have a responsibility to consider how we can contribute to creating this legacy.
Currently our level of trust in the ability of politics to support and promote change is at an all-time low; it has been eroded by a series of poor decisions. As a result there is an absence of trust between citizens and government.
As citizens we need to consider what responsibility means to us. We need to hold people in public office accountable for the decisions they make, but we should also aim to take responsibility ourselves as citizens and get involved at local and community level to work for change.
It is imperative at this time to move from a system of delegation of responsibility to one of co-decision making, co-production and co-responsibility. Only when we do this can we hope to leave a sustainable legacy for future generations.
These issues and more were vigorously debated at Social Justice Ireland’s conference on ‘Sharing Responsibility in Shaping the Future’.
For further discussion on these issues please click on the links below: These provide the text of papers presented at this conference.
- Why and How should responsibility be shared (Sean Healy and Brigid Reynolds)
- How can responsibility be shared at local level (Ivan Cooper)
- How can people ensure their voice is heard across the generations (Mary Cunningham)
- How can we ensure sustainability (Michael Ewing)
The Council of Europe is finalising a Charter on Shared Social Responsibilities. The text of this draft Charter may be accessed here.
For a trade union perspective on this issue you may access a paper by David Begg of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) here.
For a business perspective on this you may access a paper by Danny McCoy, Director of the Irish Business and Employers Confederation (IBEC) here.
All of these papers were presented at Social Justice Ireland’s annual Social Policy Conference on September 14, 2011.
A book entitled Sharing Responsibility in Shaping the Future, containing all the papers presented at this conference may be accessed here.
The cabinet appointed by Taoiseach, Enda Kenny on March 9, 2011:
Tánaiste and Foreign Affairs and Trade – Eamon Gilmore;
Finance – Michael Noonan;
Health – James Reilly;
Agriculture, Marine and Food – Simon Coveney;
Arts, Heritage and Gaeltacht Affairs – Jimmy Deenihan;
Children – Frances Fitzgerald;
Communications, Energy and Natural Resources – Pat Rabbitte;
Education and Skills – Ruairí Quinn;
Enterprise, Jobs and Innovation – Richard Bruton;
Environment, Community and Local Government – Phil Hogan;
Justice, Equality and Defence – Alan Shatter;
Public Expenditure and Reform – Brendan Howlin;
Social Protection – Joan Burton;
Transport, Tourism and Sport – Leo Varadkar;
Chief Whip – Paul Kehoe
Attorney General – Máire Whelan;
‘Super junior’ at Department of the Environment – Willie Penrose.
The following Ministers of State were appointed by Government on March 10, 2011
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of healthcare in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in May, 2011. The full text can be accessed here.
There are three documents in this series:
The HSE's Service Plan for 2010 reveals the HSE's targets for hospital, community and primary care services. The failure of Government (not the HSE) to support the initiatives required to provide a comprehensive network of primary care teams across the country means that the healthcare system will continue failing to provide the core structural development required. A close reading of this Service Plan suggests Government is continuing its drive to privatise large parts of the healthcare system.
The Plan provides details on how the HSE plans to maintain access to appropriate treatments and services for patients and clients during 2010 despite huge cuts in its budget. The budget allocation for the HSE in 2010 is €14.07bn, a decrease of €668m on the 2009 outturn.
The 2010 Service Plan includes an additional €230 million for demand-led schemes such as medical cards, €117 million for the Fair Deal nursing homes support scheme, €10 million for home care packages for older people and €20 million for the National Cancer Control Programme. It also proposes a reduction of 33,313 in emergency admissions to hospitals in 2010.
The plan has a target of €106 million in savings to be made in non-pay areas. It also has a target of increased income collection from within the healthcare system which is €745 million higher than in 2009.
The HSE Service Plan for 2010 is available here.
Ending the ongoing spiral of healthcare crises in Ireland requires that Primary Care Teams (PCTs) and the linked community supports and social care infrastructure must be put at the centre of healthcare policy and resourced adequately according to Social Justice Ireland’s latest Policy Briefing. This approach would enable communities to look after their own people locally with their families and friends where they want to be according to Social Justice Ireland.
Healthcare is a social right that every person should enjoy. People should be assured that care in their times of vulnerability is guaranteed. This is patently not the case at present. Major change is required.
The standard of care provided is dependent, among other things, on the resources made available which in turn is dependent on the expectations of the society.
For years Ireland has struggled to deliver a fair and equitable healthcare system in which people could have trust. Social Justice Ireland welcomes the new Government’s commitment to produce a one-tier healthcare system. Budget 2012 is a good opportunity to move in this direction.
The full text of Social Justice Ireland's Policy Briefing on Healthcare may be accessed here.
The Government has decided on the structure of the healthcare system which is to follow the dissolution of the HSE. The full Government statement is reproduced below. There are serious questions that arise from the structure proposed by Government. Will it be more efficient than the HSE? Will it deliver an integrated system? Will it give priority to the development of REAL Primary Care Teams.
FULL TEXT OF GOVERNMENT STATEMENT
Cabinet approves drafting of legislation for new HSE governance – December 20, 2011The Government has today (December 20, 2011) approved the drafting of legislation involving significant changes in the governance in the Health Service Executive.
The legislation, once implemented, will replace the current Board /Chief Executive structure with a Directorate (or Transitional Governance Structure)b
Backdrop
The Government is committed to a radical reform of the health services which will see the introduction of Universal Health Insurance (UHI). The putting in place of a new Directorate in the HSE is a key component in the move towards UHI.
The Programme for Government commits to the HSE ceasing to exist over time. This legislative change is the first step in a process of transformation which will require detailed planning. This initial step is designed to avoid disruptive change at a difficult and challenging time for health and social services. Legislation which will have the cumulative effect of abolishing the HSE will be brought forward on a sequential basis, as part of the overall health reform programme, with functions transferring elsewhere as part of the move towards a system of Universal Health Insurance. In addition, functions relating to child protection will transfer from the HSE to the proposed new Children and Families Support Agency.
Purchaser of Services – Provider of Services
This fundamental alteration of the operation of the health services will see an organisational division between those assets charged with purchasing health/social services and those assets charged with providing the health/social services. This in turn will allow the implementation of a full ‘Money Follows the Patient’ system where providers are paid on the basis of services delivered. It is the view of Government that the interests of citizens in securing high quality health care in an effective, efficient manner will be best achieved in this way.
In order to achieve a new degree of transparency, accountability and efficiency – prior to its abolition – the HSE will be re-organised along Service Lines. The new Directorate structure involves the identification of clear areas of priority and the establishment of responsible directors for those Service Lines.
Seven Directors
The following seven areas will be the subject of a Directorship: -
Hospital Care, Primary Care, Mental Health, Children and Family Services, Social Care, Public Health and Corporate/Shared Services.
Seven key individuals will be appointed as Directors, one of the seven will be appointed as the Director General. The Minister for Health will determine the precise functions of the Directors.
The Minister will bring forward detailed proposals at a later date for the re-organisation of the HSE at the directorate, regional and local level in a manner which facilitates a smooth transition from the current structure to the structures required under UHI.
Clarity, accountability
The purpose of this new Directorate team will be twofold; to run the health services as they exist and to prepare for the transformation required in the move to Universal Health Insurance.
The clear identification of the seven directorates or seven Service Lines will provide (as already alluded to) considerable clarity related to the delivery of the relevant services under the responsibility of the Directors and greater financial transparency and accountability in assessing those services.
It is proposed that the persons to take up the Directorates will be a combination of re-assigning existing HSE directors as well assigning persons to be identified by internal competition.
Priority Legislation
The legislation to give effect to these changes will be given a clear priority by the Government in the New Year. With the passing of the legislation the Minister for Health will provide a clear statement on the precise timeline for further reform in the run up to UHI.
Other related developments
A White Paper setting out how UHI will be implemented will be published before the end of next year.
The Primary Care Fund, as provided for in the Programme for Government, will be established as a matter of priority. Its early establishment will support the roll-out of free GP care beginning in 2012. The Integrated Care Agency and the Hospital Care Purchase Agency, which are likewise provided for in the Programme for Government, will also be established during 2012.
Article printed from healthupdates: http://healthupdate.gov.ie
Spending on long-term care in OECD countries is set to double, even triple, by 2050, driven by ageing populations. Governments need to make their long-term care policies more affordable and provide better support for family careers and professionals, according to a new OECD report. This is a very significant report in the context of Ireland's 'Fair Deal' programme providing long-term care for older people does not have sufficient funding.

Social Justice Ireland published a Policy Briefing on Healthcare on June 7, 2011. The full text of the Briefing may be accessed here.
The new healthcare structure proposed by Government could reduce effectiveness and incrases costs and bureaucracy. The Government’s proposal to introduce a new system of seven directorates to replace the HSE will fail to deliver an integrated healthcare system for users of the service at local level. Instead, there are real concerns that the new approach will increase rather than reduce costs and bureaucracy. Instead of an integrated system based on Primary Care Teams at local level we could see seven ‘silos’ competing for resources and producing a splintered system that is neither effective, sustainable nor viable in the long term. In practice the proposed new approach could see the structure taking resources away from care.
Social Justice Ireland believes that reform of the healthcare system is necessary but is seriously concerned that the proposed new structure will see each directorate establish its own bureaucracy at national, regional and local levels. This is a recipe for increasing bureaucracy and a disincentive to integration in the healthcare system when the opposite is what is required.
Following the last Cabinet meeting of 2011 the Minister for Health announced that there would be seven new directorates established covering: hospital care, primary care, mental health, children and family services, social care, public health and corporate/shared services. While each of these areas is crucially important in the delivery of a holistic healthcare system establishing directorates as proposed has the potential to completely undermine the development and effectiveness of Primary Care Teams at local level.
Government’s restructuring of the HSE should support and not impede the development of a comprehensive system of effective Primary Care Teams at local level. The establishment of seven new Directorates could well produce the opposite.
Primary care teams
Ireland’s healthcare system has struggled for many years to provide an effective and efficient response to the health needs of its population. Primary care teams are the cornerstone of any new system that hopes to deliver an effective, integrated, user-friendly service for people. It draws the health professionals in an area together into a team that provides a one-stop shop where people can go locally rather than heading directly to the accident and emergency unit in the nearest hospital. A very large proportion of those who go to accident and emergency units should not be there.
The HSE has been developing Primary Care Teams and Social Care Networks as the basic ‘building blocks’ of local public health care provision. We understand a Primary Care Team (or “PCT”) to be a team of health professionals (catering for a population of 7-10,000) who work closely together and with the local community to meet the needs of people living in that community. These professionals include GPs and Practice Nurses, community nursing i.e. public health nurses and community RGNs, physiotherapists, occupational therapists and home-care staff. They provide the first point of contact when a person needs to access the health system. When fully developed, it is expected that 519 primary care teams could cover the whole country. PCTs are also expected to link in with other community-based disciplines to ensure that health and social needs are addressed. These include: speech & language therapists, dieticians, area medical officers, community welfare officers, addiction counsellors, community mental health nursing, consultant psychiatrists, etc. PCTs provide a single point of contact between the person and the health system. They facilitate navigation ‘in’, ‘around’ and ‘out’ of the health system.
The former Government had committed to putting 500 Primary Care Teams in place by 2012. Progress has been made but more is required if this essential development is to be secured. The proposed new structure for Ireland’s healthcare system should be focused on delivering an integrated service at local level in an efficient and effective manner according to Social Justice Ireland.
A more detailed analysis of Ireland's healthcare system published by Social Justice Ireland may be accessed here.
A Policy Briefing on healthcare published by Social Justice Ireland may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of Housing and Accommodation in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of income distribution and poverty in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
The latest statistics covering the 27 countries in the European Union show that 17% of the total population of the EU is at risk of poverty. One in five of all children (20%) are at risk of poverty and 19% of older people are in this situation. The comparable figures provided on Ireland by Eurostat are a little out of date. They state that: 16% of the total population are at risk of poverty, 18% of children and 21% of people aged 65 and above. The latest study from the Central Statistics Office, published November 2009) shows that 14.4% of the population is at risk of poverty as are 18% of children, 12.1% of those aged 65-74 and 9.9% of those 75 and over.
These figures illustrate the scale of the challenge faced by the EU at the start of 2010 - the European Year Against Poverty and Social Exclusion. It is crucial that the European Union adopt an objective of achieving zero poverty by 2020 and put in place the programmes and strategies required to deliver on this target. Each country, including Ireland, should be obliged to adopt the same objective and develop the strategies and programmes required to achieve this goal. A society is measured by how it treats its weakest members. On that basis Ireland and the EU are currently failing.
Social Justice Ireland has called on all TDs to vote against any reduction in welfare rates in Budget 2011. Research produced by Social Justice Ireland shows that the take-home pay of TDs rose by €980 a WEEK since 1986 while unemployment benefit rates only rose by €143.75 in the same period. Government ministers’ take-home pay rose by more than €1,200 a WEEK in the same period. There is no way a TD, Senator or Government minister can justify voting for a cut in welfare rates in Budget 2011. Welfare recipients are among Ireland’s poorest and most vulnerable people. They should and can be protected.
Further details are available in the bar chart at the foot of this page.
Government has other choices available to it such as spreading the ‘hit’ for Ireland’s rescue more fairly by eliminating tax-breaks, by insisting the corporate sector make a contribution to Ireland’s recovery and by ensuring bond holders share some part of the cost of recovery that Ireland requires following on their gambling on Ireland’s banks.
Social Justice Ireland’s research (cf. table at end of this newsrelease) also shows that over the period 1986-2010:

There is absolutely no justification for Government to reduce social welfare rates in Budget 2012. Government can reduce its borrowing by €3.6bn in the Budget while still protecting Ireland’s most vulnerable people who have taken more than their fair share of the ‘hit’ for the reckless and at times illegal activities of those who got Ireland into its present mess.
Addressing the Pre-Budget Forum of the Department of Social Protection today (Friday, September 16, 2011) Michelle Murphy, Research and Policy Analyst with Social Justice Ireland, pointed out that: “those surviving on low incomes continue to struggle and, unlike other groups in society, have no room to absorb income cuts. Any such cuts would simply deepen their poverty and further undermine their attempts to live their lives with dignity.”
In the current difficult economic climate, Social Justice Ireland believes that social welfare rates should not be reduced for five reasons:
In this context Social Justice Ireland emphasises that Child Benefit should not be reduced in Budget 2012 and has made a detailed submission to the Minister on this issue.
Social Justice Ireland also made a proposal to Minister Joan Burton urging Government to create a Part-Time Job Opportunities programme along the lines of the programme piloted in the 1994-1998. The new programme:
In the coming weeks Social Justice Ireland will publish a fully-costed Budget for 2012 showing how Government can reduce its borrowing by €3.6bn in the Budget while still protecting Ireland’s most vulnerable people.
Inequality has been growing dramatically in the USA according to a new report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on November 25, 2011. After-tax income for the highest-income households grew more than it did for any other group in the USA between 1979 and 2007. The trend in Ireland is along similar lines. This needs to be reversed in Budget 2011 and it can be done.
(After-tax income is the amount one has after taxes have been deducted and social security payments have been added.)
CBO finds that, between 1979 and 2007, income grew by:
The biggest component of the increase in after-tax income for the top one per cent is "business income" as opposed to income from employment. As a result of that uneven income growth, the distribution of after-tax household income in the United States was substantially more unequal in 2007 than it was in 1979
The data support two realities about the USA that need to be repeated constantly.
· Firstly, a system that works well for the very richest has delivered far less for everyone else.
· Secondly, the richest have made huge gains over the past few decades, and now everyone else must pay.
The main findings of the CBO study include:
· For the 1 per cent of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax household income grew by 275 per cent between 1979 and 2007
· For others in the 20 per cent of the population with the highest income (those in the 81st through 99th percentiles), average real after-tax household income grew by 65 per cent over that period, much faster than it did for the remaining 80 per cent of the population, but not nearly as fast as for the top 1 per cent.
· For the 60 per cent of the population in the middle of the income scale (the 21st through 80th percentiles), the growth in average real after-tax household income was just under 40 per cent.
· For the 20 per cent of the population with the lowest income, average real after-tax household income was about 18 per cent higher in 2007 than it had been in 1979.
· The share of total income accruing to higher-income households increased, whereas the share accruing to other households declined. In fact, between 2005 and 2007, the after-tax income received by the 20 per cent of the population with the highest income exceeded the after-tax income of the remaining 80 per cent.
The full text of the CBO report may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland's proposals on how Budget 2011 could reverse this trend may be accessed here.
A United Nations report has strongly criticized the Government’s policy of making major cuts in public services while keeping Ireland a low-tax country. The report states that this approach hits poor people hardest in a time of recession.
The report was prepared by the UN’s independent expert on the question of human rights and extreme poverty, Magdalena Sepúlveda Carmona and was based on a detailed study of developments in Ireland she conducted earlier this year.
The report also calls on EU states to reduce the interest rate charged on Ireland’s EU-IMF loan, warning a failure to do so could well leave them in breach of their international legal obligations.
This report will now go to the UN General Assembly and Human Rights Council.
Key Points
The report
a) Strengthen the legal and institutional framework by giving domestic legal effect to Ireland’s international human rights obligations, and ratifying and incorporating into domestic law international, treaties to which it is not yet party;
b) Review its Programme for Government and National Recovery to ensure that it complies with human rights principles, particularly the obligation to use the maximum resources available and to not take retrogressive measures in the protection of economic, social and cultural rights, and consider reversing those measures which will disproportionately impact on the most vulnerable and excluded, particularly reductions in social protection payments and funding to public services; and
c) (c) Strengthen the social protection system, infrastructure and social services to ensure the full enjoyment of all economic, social and cultural rights of the population, and remove barriers that prevent the most vulnerable segments of society from accessing their entitlements.
The full text of the report may be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland welcomes the publication of the ESRI report on ‘Tax, Welfare and Work Incentives’ which finds that 8 out of 10 people receiving welfare payments would increase their income by at least 50% if they were to obtain a job. These findings comprehensively refute the argument that most unemployed people ‘are better off on the dole’.
A recently published book entitled The Spirit Level: Why More Equal Societies Almost Always Do Better, has produced the evidence that will no longer allow anybody to legitimately claim that income inequality doesn't matter.
Written by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett, this book addresses key issues concerning how inequality and/or income inequality cause the levels of health and other social indicators: levels of trust, mental illness, life expectancy, infant mortality, obesity, educational performance, teenage prgnancy, murder rates, imprisonment rates and social mobility. An excellent review article is available at the Citizen's Income Trust website and can be accessed here.
Social Justsice Ireland is indebted to Citizen's Income UK for permission to reproduce this review article. The review article asks that we go deeper into the causes of inequality than the authors of this book have been able to do, but we can only applaud the book’s message: that inequality matters, why it occurs matters, the damage that it does matters, and so seeking greater equality matters.
There has often been an understandable worry that social policy designed to create a more equal society might make the economy less efficient. However, a range of recent publications on social policy show that social protection measures don’t necessarily make an economy less efficient.
This book has important consequences also for the debate on the desirability and feasibility of a Basic Income system. We no longer have to regard economic efficiency and greater social equality as mutually exclusive: indeed, we can regard them as complementary and as mutually reinforcing. A social policy which promotes both should therefore be particularly welcome.
Citizen’s Income UK promotes the introduction of a Basic Income in the UK. Social Justice Ireland argues that such a system is required if we are to have a 'fit for purpose' system in Ireland in this 21st century.
Social Justice Ireland will make a more detailed comment in due course.
Over the past decade mass media has often promoted false assumptions and communicated poor social analysis and, in many cases, is continuing to do so today according to Fr Seán Healy, SMA, Director of Social Justice Ireland.
Addressing journalism students in the University of Limerick Seán Healy argued that:
Among the false assumptions that underpinned Ireland’s policy-making during the past decade Seán Healy highlighted the following:
Following on a period of well-grounded growth stretching from 1994 to 2001, it was the false assumptions about growth, among other things, that led Ireland to make very poor decisions in the years that followed. This culminated in the housing bubble crash and the related banking crisis. Much of the media had a very unquestioning approach to these issues during this period. In reality the media was more noted for its propaganda promoting new housing developments than it was for challenging the false underlying assumptions.
There is a salutary lesson to be learned from this. It is crucial that all assumptions be challenged and all the social analysis provided in support of particular policy initiatives, by Government or others, be checked if we are to exit from the present series of crises that Ireland is facing.
Much of the current debate in public media outlets is making the same mistakes as before and as a result many people are poorly informed on the choices that have to be made and the options that Ireland has in making those choices.
What are the facts on NAMA?
NAMA home webpage
NAMA information published September 16, 2009
Outline of Proposed New Guarantee Scheme September 16, 2009
Statement by Minister for Finance to the Dail on Banking, January 19, 2010
Speech by Minister for Finance on NAMA Bill Second Stage
Statement by Minister for Finance on the NAMA legislation draft paper, July 30, 2009
NAMA Bill - Explanatory memo July 30, 2009
NAMA Bill Proposal - for public consultation July 30, 2009
Information about the Bank Guarantee Scheme, October 20, 2009
Ministers Statement on taking Anglo-Irish Bank into public ownership, January 15, 2009
Information about the Bank Guarantee Scheme October 20, 2008
The following documents can be accessed here:
Statement by the Ministser for Finance, Brian Lenihan, TD, on the banks - March 30, 2010.
NAMA first loan transfers - March 30, 2010.
Social Justice Ireland's statement on NAMA and related issues can be accessed here.
Social-Economic Review challenges dominant narrative underpinning public policy and discourse
The Irish Times published an article on its op-ed pages by Sean Healy, Director of Social Justice Ireland, on April 29, 2010, setting out a narrative of how Ireland came to be in the current crisis, where it might go from here and how it might get there. The full article can be accessed here.
This narrative is developed at much greater length in the recently published book An Agenda For A New Ireland published by Social Justice Ireland. The full text of chapter 2 of that book, which contains this material, can be accessed here.
The full text of An Agenda For A New Ireland as well as each individual chapter can be accessed here.
Poverty in households with children is rising in nearly all OECD countries. Governments should ensure that family support policies protect the most vulnerable, according to the OECD’s first-ever report on family well-being.

The full text of the Government's Pensions Framework is available here.
The case for a universal state pension is very well made in this chapter by Gerry Hughes This is a chapter in our book Making Choices - Choosing Futures: Ireland at a Crossroads. The full book can be accessed here.
Irish Government's Pensions Framework Deeply Flawed
The Government’s new pensions framework is deeply flawed. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that 47,000 older people in Ireland have no entitlement to a pension and these numbers may well grow in the years ahead. Government’s failure to introduce a universal pension entitlement in Ireland means that many people will have no pension. This situation is totally unacceptable and could have been addressed effectively by introducing a universal pension entitlement.
The most recent statistics available from the Central Statistics Office show that 10.9 per cent of the Irish population are over 65 years of age – some 480,000 people. One in ten of these people live in poverty (i.e. with less than €224 a week for a single person). These numbers have been falling, which is welcome, but it remains a concern that so many of Ireland’s senior citizens are living on so little. The Government’s new Pensions Framework fails to address this issue effectively or convincingly.
A good way to mark the European Year Against Poverty and Social Exclusion (i.e. 2010) would be to commit to ensuring that every older person in Ireland has access to a universal pension sufficient to ensure they can live life with dignity.
Social Justice Ireland is very concerned about the management of these proposed funds and urges Government to ensure that pension funds are not being handed over to be managed by the discredited private pensions industry.
To summarise:
The total population in the Republic of Ireland is 4,581,269 according to the Census 2011 preliminary results. This is an increase of 341,421 on the 2006 census. In percentage terms this shows an increase of 8.1 per cent over the past five years, or an annual average of 1.6 per cent, compared to 2.0 per cent per annum in the period 2002-2006.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of poverty and income distribution in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland believes that the Irish Government’s launch of its plans for the EU Year against Poverty and Social Exclusion is more rhetoric than real commitment. This can be seen in Government’s failure, among other things, to address the large regional differences in the levels of poverty. Government has an anti-poverty strategy, a spatial strategy and a commitment to balanced regional development but all are failing to address regional disparities in poverty. The latest statistics on poverty show that 9.3% of Dublin’s population is in poverty compared to 22.7 in the Midlands region.
The recent poverty study from the CSO provided for the first time a detailed regional breakdown of poverty levels. The data shows a very uneven national distribution of poverty. (details can be found in Table 8 on page 6 of Social Justice Ireland's Policy Briefing on Poverty.
In Dublin and the Mid-East approximately one in ten people live in poverty while the figures are twice this in the Mid-West and the Midlands. This analysis underscores the need for Government’s strategies to address poverty in both national and regional terms - a perspective absent from their approach (in reality as distinct from rhetoric) in this area heretofore.
Table 8 also reports that poverty is more likely to occur in rural areas than urban areas. In 2008 the risk of poverty in rural Ireland was 6.9 per cent higher than in urban Ireland with at risk rates of 18.2 per cent and 11.3 per cent respectively.
Social Justice Ireland believes that Government needs to change direction in its approach to reducing poverty. A good starting point would be for Ireland and the EU to adopt a target of ’zero poverty’ to be reached by 2020. This would be a very appropriate way of marking the European Year against Poverty and Social Exclusion.
There are almost 615,000 people at risk of poverty in Ireland. Almost 200,000 of these are children; 116,000 are employed (these are the ‘working poor’).
The full text of Social Justice Ireland’s recent Policy Briefing on Poverty is available on their website here.
Social Justice Ireland has challenged Government to adopt a target of ‘zero poverty’ by 2020. In its most recent Policy Briefing, Social Justice Ireland states that “Government needs to change direction in its approach to reducing poverty. A good starting point would be for Ireland and the EU to adopt a target of ’zero poverty’ to be reached by 2020.” This would be a very appropriate way of marking the European Year against Poverty and Social Exclusion. There are almost 615,000 people at risk of poverty in Ireland. Almost 200,000 of these are children; 116,000 are employed (these are the ‘working poor’). All of these numbers are extremely disturbing.
In its Policy Briefing, which addresses the issue of poverty, Social Justice Ireland claims that Government has forgotten the lessons that had been learned in recent years and reversed the strategies that had been reducing poverty. The Policy Briefing argues that: “increasing the lowest social welfare rates was the key to reducing poverty from 19.7% in 2003 to a record low of 13.9% in 2008. This approach was supplemented by a wide range of initiatives aimed at mobilising local communities to tackle poverty effectively in their local areas. Budget 2010 reversed this approach; it reduced welfare rates (by more than the fall in the cost of living for poor people) resulting in Ireland’s most vulnerable people being worse off in 2010 than in 2009; it also reduced the funding for addressing poverty and social exclusion at local level.”
Government has claimed it had no choice in making the decisions it made. But this is not true. Social Justice Ireland produced a detailed set of fully-costed proposals that showed how Government could have achieved the adjustments of €4bn it sought in Budget 2010 without reducing social welfare rates and without cutting the funding for organisations and programmes addressing poverty and social exclusion.
The full text of Social Justice Ireland’s Policy Briefing on Poverty is available here.
Recent changes in direction by Government are even more regrettable given that 2010 is the EU Year against Poverty and Social Exclusion. It is now likely that Ireland will mark this ‘year’ by increasing poverty and social exclusion.
In its Policy Briefing Social Justice Ireland proposes that if Government is to reduce poverty in the period immediately ahead it should:
o Stop targeting Ireland’s most vulnerable people and improve their situation, not worsen it as they did in Budget 2010.
o Recognise the problem of the ‘working poor’ and adopt policies to address the situation of the 39.6% of all households in poverty which are headed by a person with a job.
o Provide substantial new measures to address the threat of long-term unemployment among those recently unemployed. This should include programmes aimed at re-training and re-skilling those at highest risk.
o Set a target of ‘zero poverty’ to be achieved by 2020. Advocate that this target be adopted by the European Union as part of its actions to mark the European Year against Poverty and Social Exclusion (2010).
o Address family poverty.
o Adopt a new approach to measuring deprivation - one that uses regularly updated indicators reflective of society as it currently is.
o Accept that persistent poverty should be used as the primary indicator of poverty measurement once this data becomes available.
o Move towards introducing a basic income system. All initiatives in the areas of income and work should constitute positive moves towards the introduction of a full basic income guarantee system.
o Continue to honour the NAPinclusion and Towards 2016 commitment that the lowest social welfare payment for a single person will be benchmarked to 30 per cent of GAIE (gross average industrial earnings) from 2007-2016.
o Move towards introducing a basic income system. All initiatives in the areas of income and work should constitute positive moves towards the introduction of a full basic income guarantee system.
The full text of Social Justice Ireland’s Policy Briefing on Poverty is available here
Some legislators in Ireland are still working with illusions when it comes to measuring poverty. A meeting of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Affairs on March 25, 2010 saw a number of members of Ireland's Dail and Senate comment on what they thought the basis for measuring poverty was.
They took issue with the supposed 'fact' that measuring poverty on the basis of average incomes could give rise to problems. Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy of Social Justice Ireland presented the real facts i.e. that poverty is not based on an average of anything. A short, and very incomplete, summary of the discussion appeared in the Irish Times on March 26, 2010. To clarify the matter we provide the note below which sets out what poverty is and how it is measured.
In passing Social Justice Ireland notes with regret that the report in the Irish Times made no mention of the topic which we discussed with the Committee for more than an hour i.e. the EU's Europe 2020 strategy.
What is poverty?
The National Anti-Poverty Strategy (NAPS) published by government in 1997 adopted the following definition of poverty:
People are living in poverty if their income and resources (material, cultural and social) are so inadequate as to preclude them from having a standard of living that is regarded as acceptable by Irish society generally. As a result of inadequate income and resources people may be excluded and marginalised from participating in activities that are considered the norm for other people in society.
This definition has been reiterated in the 2007 National Action Plan for Social Inclusion 2007-2016 (NAPinclusion).
Where is the poverty line?
How many people are poor? On what basis are they classified as poor? These and related questions are constantly asked when poverty is discussed or analysed.
In trying to measure the extent of poverty, the most common approach has been to identify a poverty line (or lines) based on people’s incomes. In recent years the European Commission and the UN among others have begun to use a poverty line located at 60 per cent of median income. The median income is the income of the middle person in society’s income distribution; in other words it is the middle income in society. This poverty line is the one adopted in the SILC survey and differs from the previous Irish poverty line (prior to 2003) which was set at 50 per cent of mean (average) income. This switch to using median income is to be welcomed as it removes many of the theoretical and technical criticisms that have been levelled against using relative income measures to assess poverty. In cash terms there is very little difference between the poverty line drawn at either 60 per cent of median income or 50 per cent of mean income. While the 60 per cent median income line has been adopted as the primary poverty line, alternatives set at 50 per cent and 70 per cent of median income are also used to clarify and lend robustness to assessments of poverty.
The most up-to-date data available on poverty in Ireland comes from the 2008 SILC survey, conducted by the CSO. The 2008 data includes a one-off effect on Irish household incomes associated with the SSIA (Special Savings Incentive Accounts) scheme. As a result of the release of these savings and the associated cash bonuses/interest, many household’s income increased in 2008 on a one-off basis (CSO, 2009:18-19). Given that this effect will not re-occur in future years the CSO have provided their 2008 SILC results both including and excluding the SSIA effect. To ensure continuity of analysis with previous and future years the majority of the analysis that follows reports the results excluding the once-off SSIA effects.
Using information gathered in the SILC survey for 2008, the CSO established that the median income per adult in Ireland (excluding the one-off SSIA effect) was €388.07 (2009:19). Consequently, the income poverty lines for a single adult derived from this average were:
50 per cent line - €194.03 a week
60 per cent line - €232.84 a week
70 per cent line - €271.65 a week
Updating the 60 per cent median income poverty line to 2010 levels, using the ESRI’s predicted changes in wage levels for 2009 and 2010, produces a relative income poverty line of €224.75 for a single person. In 2010, any adult below this weekly income level will be counted as being at risk of poverty. It is worth noting that the value of the 2010 poverty line is lower than the 2008 figure (above) because wages are projected to decline over this period and as the poverty line is a relative measure it adjusts accordingly.
Table 1 applies this 2010 poverty line to a number of household types to show what income corresponds to each household’s poverty line. The figure of €224.75 is an income per adult equivalent figure. This means that it is the minimum weekly disposable income (after taxes and including all benefits) that one adult needs to receive to be out of poverty. For each additional adult in the household this minimum income figure is increased by €148.33 (66 per cent of the poverty line figure) and for each child in the household the minimum income figure is increased by €74.17 (33 per cent of the poverty line). These adjustments are made in recognition of the fact that as households increase in size they require more income to keep themselves out of poverty. In all cases a household below the corresponding weekly disposable income figure is classified as living at risk of poverty. For clarity, corresponding annual figures are also included.
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Table 1:
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The Minimum Weekly Disposable Income Required to Avoid Poverty in 2010, by Household Types
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Household containing:
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Weekly poverty line
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Annual poverty line
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1 adult
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€224.75
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€11,719
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|
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1 adult + 1 child
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€298.92
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€15,586
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|
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1 adult + 2 children
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€373.09
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€19,454
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|
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1 adult + 3 children
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€447.25
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€23,321
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|
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2 adults
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€373.09
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€19,454
|
|
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2 adults + 1 child
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€447.25
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€23,321
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|
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2 adults + 2 children
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€521.42
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€27,188
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|
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2 adults + 3 children
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€595.59
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€31,056
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|
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3 adults
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€521.42
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€27,188
|
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One immediate implication of this analysis is that most weekly social assistance rates paid to single people are €28.75 below the poverty line.
The full text of Social Justice Ireland's Policy Briefing on Poverty is available here.
The Poor Can't Pay Campaign has launched a 'Time to Make A Commitment' campaign in which they are asking people to make a personal commitment to do everything in their power to prevent further cuts to the incomes of those on social welfare or on the minimum wage.
In the 'Croke Park Agreement' the Government offers a commitment to civil servants that they will face no further cuts in their wages in 2011. However, despite repeated questions the Government is unable to offer those on the lowest incomes the same assurance.Social Justice Ireland is a member of the steering group of the Poor Can't Pay Campaign.
Ireland's economic crisis has required most sectors of Irish society to face cutbacks and get by on lower incomes. .Despite repeated commitments from all sides that Ireland would 'protect the vulnerable', those who live on the lowest incomes have already taken a very substantial part of the burden:
We are asking you to make a personal commitment that you will do everything in your power to ensure that those on the lowest incomes are protected from the next round of cutbacks.
Social Justice Ireland commissioned this brief report with the intention of establishing an appropriate benchmark for Ireland’s social welfare payments. The need for this study arises given changes to the availability of income data from the CSO. The aim of the study was to use available official data to establish a new and comparable benchmark and thereby allow ongoing assessments of the adequacy of social welfare payments relative to this benchmark.
The report may be accessed here.
The Government has decided to review the national poverty target. This follows strong objections from Social Justice Ireland and many others to the target included in the National Reform Programme (NRP) by the current Government when it submitted the NRP to the European Commission earlier this year.
EU Headline Target: To promote social inclusion, in particular through the reduction of poverty, by aiming to lift at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty and exclusiont.
The EU Headline Target has been approved by the European Council. Ireland and all other EU countries are expected to make a contribution to attaining this overall target.

The Government's survey may be accessed here.
The economic and financial crisis in Ireland poses a disproportionate threat to vulnerable segments in the country who benefitted little from its economic boom in the first place, the UN Independent Expert on human rights and extreme poverty, Magdalena Sepúlveda has warned.
Ms. Sepúlveda was particularly concerned at the impact of cuts in expenditure on social protection and public services. “The reductions will mean a decline in services and an increase in costs to access them, leading to further poverty and social exclusion,” she warned. “Retrogressive measures in the enjoyment of economic, social and cultural rights need to be fully justified in the context of maximum available resources.”
There is no justification for reducing Child Benefit. Below Social Justice Ireland outlines why Child Benefit should neither be reduced nor taxed in Budget 2012.
1. Child Benefit should not be reduced
Both the National Children's Strategy in 2000 and the Policy and Value for Money Review of Child Income Supports in 2010 recognised and acknowledged that Child Benefit has a significant impact on reducing child poverty, supporting the welfare of children and raising families above the poverty line (Department of Social Protection (2010), A Policy and Value for Money Review of Child Income Support and Associated Spending Programmes p.155; Government of Ireland (2000) National Children's Strategy 2000-2010 p.63). The universality of Child Benefit is in keeping with the principle that all children should be entitled to basic rights without discrimination, a principle which Government signed up to in 1992 when it ratified the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.
Social Justice Ireland opposes any reduction in the level of Child Benefit payment or in its universal availability. Child Benefit is currently the only universal means by which children in Ireland are given financial support to protect them against poverty. Government has committed to providing children with the financial supports necessary to eliminate child poverty, yet poverty persists at a high level. It has also committed to prioritising policies and services by their contribution to that quality of each child's daily life (Government of Ireland (2000) National Children's Strategy 2000-2010 p.23).
The National Agreement Towards 2016 contains a very relevant high-level goal concerning children, a goal we believe everyone in Ireland would support; it states: "Every child should grow up in a family with access to sufficient resources, supports and services, to nurture and care for the child, and foster the child's development and full and equal participation in society”(Government of Ireland (2006), Towards 2016 Ten-Year Framework Social Partnership Agreement 2006-2015 p.41).
If this outcome is to be achieved it should be noted that:
Since 2009 it has been observed that Child Benefit has already fallen as a percentage of the weekly disposable income in the bottom decile (Department of Social Protection (2010), A Policy and Value for Money Review of Child Income Support and Associated Spending Programmes p.148); any further reduction in Child Benefit has the potential to move more children into poverty and significantly increase these unacceptable child poverty figures.
2. Child Benefit should not be taxed
The OECD states that one of the key areas of family policy and support should be helping parents to provide for their children and reduce the risk of family poverty by reducing barriers to parental employment (OECD 2011, Doing Better for Families p. 3). Taxing Child Benefit would have possible negative effects on employment incentives for both those within the tax system and those within the welfare system. The Value for Money Review of Child Income Support explicitly stated that it did not recommend taxation of Child Benefit (Department of Social Protection 2010, A Policy and Value for Money Review of Child Income Support and Associated Spending Programmes p.264).
Taxation of Child Benefit is a form of horizontal inequity. If the government introduced a proposal to raise revenue by taxing Child Benefit it could have the following effect:
If the Government needed to increase revenue through the income tax system then it would be fairer to increase income tax on both households equally. Taxing Child Benefit penalises households with children.
Child Poverty
The number of children at risk of poverty rose by more than 35,000 in two years between 2007 and 2009, the most recent year for which statistics are available. The income of a household of four on social welfare is currently €80 a week below the poverty line. However, it is crucial to realise that child poverty cannot be addressed in isolation; it needs to be considered within the wider issue of household poverty.
The increase in the proportion of Ireland’s population at risk of poverty, (from 14.1% to 15.8% in one year) clearly identifies a major challenge for Government as it finalises its Budget for 2012. Budget 2012 must give priority to protecting Ireland’s poorest and most vulnerable people according to Social Justice Ireland.
An analysis of the new poverty statistics published by the Central Statistics Office today shows that:
New research published by Social Justice Ireland shows that, while poverty in Ireland is high, Government policies since 1987 have been increasing the income of the richest ten per cent of households and widening the gap between these and the rest of society.
Social Justice Ireland has called on all political parties participating in the forthcoming General Election to spell out how they intend to reverse this process in the years immediately ahead.
In its latest Policy Briefing, which addresses the issue of ‘Poverty and Income Distribution’, Social Justice Ireland shows that:
When the income distribution is broken down into deciles (i.e. 10% segments) we see that:
The EU/IMF Bailout and the Four-Year Recovery Plan are continuing the process of supporting the better-off and seem set to produce a dramatic increase in poverty and social exclusion. Welfare rates are being reduced, services are being cut and charges are being introduced and/or increased.
Resources are being taken from the poor to bailout gambling bankers and senior bondholders and to increase the incomes of the top 10%. This process of dispossessing poor people by appropriating their resources to pay for activities they had no hand, act or part in may be legal but it is deeply unjust and unfair.
Other issues addressed in this latest analysis from Social Justice Ireland show that:
Proposals from Social Justice Ireland:
Social Justice Ireland published its latest annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full references for that book can be accessed here.
Social Justice Ireland is disappointed but not surprised at the results from latest Eurostat Report which has found Irish SMEs are among the least successful in the EU in accessing credit.
The economic crisis has made it more difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to access banking credit. The proportion of unsuccessful loan applications rose between 2007 and 2010 in 19 of the 20 Member States for which data are available. The largest increases in unsuccessful loan applications were observed in Bulgaria (from 3% in 2007 to 36% in 2010), Ireland (from 1% to 27%) and Latvia (from 4% to 26%). Unsuccessful applications fell only in Sweden (from 9% to 6%).
These figures were issued by Eurostat and are based on a survey covering 25,000 businesses across the EU. The data was released in connection with European SME week 2011, which takes place from 3 to 9 October in 37 European countries, including Ireland.
Social Justice Ireland has been advocating for an effective way of ensuring credit is made available for small businesses since the current crisis began. Social Justice Ireland proposes that the most efficient and effective means for Government to do this would be to buy back the ICC Bank it sold to Bank of Scotland (Ireland) some years ago which has a state-wide infrastructure. This was a bank focused specifically on providing credit to small businesses and it has a long track record of doing this successfully. Buying it back, which would cost the government a very small percentage of what it is spending on NAMA and on repaying bank debt, would provide Government with the required mechanism to address the credit problem being experience by small and medium businesses. If it were not possible to buy back the ICC Bank then a new institution should be created to take the same approach as ICC and this would go a long way to resolving the problems being faced by small and medium enterprises.
For full details of the Eurostat report click here.
Ireland is the fourth most socially unjust of the OECD member countries according to the Bertelsmann Foundation. The study examines social justice as a measure of citizen’s participation in society and the policies of inclusion that a state implements in order to include as many citizens as possible in society. It focuses on this approach to inclusion rather than on an approach which sees the implemention of compensatory policies as the key to securing inclusion for those who are excluded from participating meaningfully in society.
Five categories are used to measure social justice but poverty levels are viewed as the most important instrument of measurement. The other four categories measured are access to education; labour market inclusion; social cohesion and equality and generational equality. Poverty is weighted three times higher than the other categories in the study as the authors see the avoidance of poverty as an essential condition of social justice. Ireland performs poorly across all categories, and is ranked 27 in avoidance of poverty making Ireland the worst EU country in which to avoid poverty.
Ireland also performs abysmally in terms of education; only Turkey and Greece perform worse than Ireland in terms of access to education; and Ireland ranks worst over all for early childhood education development. These data, combined with the data from the PISA report published in December 2010 are further evidence that Ireland’s education system continues to mediate the cycle of disadvantage and social exclusion.
Social Justice Ireland is not surprised by Ireland’s poor performance. We agree with the authors of the study that social participation can be implemented among disadvantaged groups through priority-setting and targeted support. Social Justice Ireland believes that all people should have a genuine voice in shaping the decisions that affect them and that all people should be able to contribute meaningfully to the development of society. In order to make Ireland truly socially inclusive the government must take the necessary steps to ensure everyone is in a position to contribute in this way and that the society's structures are re-designed to ensure real participation for all.
Policies aimed at protecting bondholders and the market at the expense of citizens means that citizens are being excluded and the poor and vulnerable are ignored in dialogue that revolves around the market and economic recovery.
In order to address poverty the government must address the issues of income distribution, maintain adequate levels of social and economic provision so that each person has sufficient income to live life with dignity and that people are not at risk of falling below the poverty line (EU poverty line is set at 60% of median income). The government needs to address related issues; basic income, education, regional and generational and gender issues. The government must carry out an impact analysis on all policies to ensure that they do not push people into poverty or trap them in poverty.
The government failed to carry out any impact analysis when devising the 4-Year National Recovery Plan or when producing Budget 2011. The increased cost of accessing services combined with the reduction in welfare rates will condemn Ireland’s poorest to penury and will push many more below the poverty line. At present almost 40% of households at risk of poverty in Ireland are headed by somebody who is employed. By reducing the minimum wage, cutting social welfare rates and increasing the cost of services the government is on target to rank even lower in any future study of social justice among OECD member states.
The full study is available only in German. A report on the study published by the Irish Times may be accessed here.
A full update on taxation in Ireland is available here. It appeared as a chapter in An agenda for a New Ireland published by Social Justice Ireland in April 2010.
The tax wedge in Ireland remained one of the lowest in the OECD in 2009 with 24 countries out of 30 taking a higher percentage from single people on the average wage and 27 countries taking more from a family on an average wage according to the OECD’s annual publication ‘Taxing Wages’ published on May 11, 2010. This is the case despite the fact that Ireland increased the tax wedge in 2009 on single people with average wages by 1.5 percentage points and on families with average wages (two adults, one-earner, with two children) by two percentage points.
The European Parliament has passed a resolution calling on the European Commission to analyse the possibility of introducing a tax on financial transactions such as a Tobin Tax or a Robin Hood Tax. The motion was passed by 536 votes to 80. The full text of the resolution is available here. Social Justice Ireland welcomes this vote and urges the European Commission and the European Council to give priority to addressing this particular proposal which has huge potential for substantially reducing financial speculation and for ensuring that financial institutions pay a fair share of tax which they do not do at present.
Ireland’s total tax-take is far below the EU average according to statistics published June 28, 2010 by Eurostat, the EU’s statistical agency. This publication shows that across the EU the total tax-take averaged 39.3% of GDP in 2008. For Ireland the comparable figure is 29.3%. This raises two major questions for Ireland:
October 2004: Social Policy book on Taxation Policy edited by Brigid Reynolds and Sean Healy, Directors of Social Justice Ireland
2004 July: Policy Briefing on Taxation
Social Justice Ireland strongly welcomes the progress made towards introducing a Financial Transaction Tax in the EU. This would be a very efficient mechanism to ensure banks and financial institutions made a contribution towards resolving the current series of crises which were, in great part, caused by these very institutions. It is time financial institutions paid their fair share.
Bankers bonuses should be replaced by billions to help poor people. It would mark a welcome change from the current process of dispossessing poor and vulnerable people to pay back 100% of the money gambled recklessly by banks and financial institutions.
The European Commission presented the proposal for a financial transaction tax in the 27 member States of the European Union as part of its overall budget strategy. The tax would be levied on all transactions on financial instruments between financial institutions when at least one party to the transaction is located in the EU.
The exchange of shares and bonds would be taxed at a rate of 0.1% and derivative contracts, at a rate of 0.01%. This could approximately raise €57 billion every year. The Commission has proposed that the tax should come into effect from 1st January 2014.
Introducing the proposal, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso said “in the last three years, Member States - I should say taxpayers - have granted aid and provided guarantees of € 4.6 trillion to the financial sector. It is time for the financial sector to make a contribution back to society. That is why I am very proud to say that today; the Commission adopted a proposal for the Financial Transaction Tax”.
Mr Barroso went on to justify the Financial Transactions Tax by saying “It is a question of fairness. If our farmers, if our workers, if all the sectors of the economy from industry to agriculture to services, if they all pay a contribution to the society also the banking sector should make a contribution to the society”.
Mr. Barroso also pointed out out that at present the financial sector is not making the proportionate contribution to society in many EU Member States.
Social Justice Ireland has advocated for years for such a tax and proposed the income should be used to tackle poverty and climate change across the world with particular focus on achieving the Millennium Development Goals. We welcome Mr. Barroso’s proposal and his recognition that the financial sector is not making a proportionate contribution to economic recovery, given that banks and the financial sector caused the current crisis.
Those who oppose this proposal should realise that if the well-being of people and the planet are at risk, the future of the financial sector is too. The right thing to do now is to put people first, supporting the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax for a better future.
To access full details for the financial transactions tax click here.
To access Mr. Barroso’s speech to the European Parliament click here.
Bill Gates has given his support to a campaign to put a small tax on financial trades (known as a Financial Transaction Tax - FTT). In a note presented to the G20 he proposes to generate up to $48billion in revenue on a G20-wide basis which can be then used to fund spending on development.
Even if the FTT were to be confined to larger European economies $9bn would be generated. Social Justice Ireland has advocated for years for such a tax and proposed the income should be used to tackle poverty and climate change across the world with particular focus on achieving the Millennium Development Goals.
The FTT is a credible mechanism by which to generate substantial amounts of money to help fill the climate fund and finance other global challenges, without requiring additional sacrifices from the taxpayer.
In practice, the FTT would mainly impact short-term trading which has no added value for the real economy and contribute to the stabilisation of financial markets by reducing speculation. While it is widely acknowledged that the tax can be put in practice (including 2010 studies by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission confirming its feasibility), the necessary political will is lacking. Countries like Germany, France, Belgium and Luxemburg are supportive, many others including the United Kingdom, the United States and the Netherlands are still unwilling to consider taxing financial transactions.
Those who oppose this proposal should realise that if the well-being of people and the planet are at risk, the future of the financial sector is too. The right thing to do now is to put people first, supporting the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax for a better future.
Making tax credits refundable would benefit 113,000 low-income individuals in an efficient and cost-effective manner according to a new study published by Social Justice Ireland on July 5, 2010. When children and other adults in the household are taken into account the total number of beneficiaries would be 240,000. The cost of making this change would be €140m which is in stark contrast to the estimate provided by the Department of Finance to the Oireachtas Committee on Social and Family Affairs which claimed the cost would be €3,000m (i.e. €3bn).
The full text of the new study may be accessed here.
The Social Justice Ireland proposal to make tax credits refundable would make Ireland’s tax system fairer, address part of the working poor problem and improve the living standards of a substantial number of people in Ireland.
Entitled ‘Building a Fairer Tax System: The Working Poor and the Cost of Refundable Tax Credits’, the study also raises serious concerns regarding the Department of Finance’s wrong calculations. Evidence based policy making should be based on solid evidence. The costings supplied by the Department of Finance were wrong by more than 95% so the proposal has been very badly served by poor ‘evidence’ from a source on whom we should be able to rely.
Mr David Begg, General Secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions responded to the study at its launch in Buswell’s Hotel.
Details of Study
Issues addressed in this study
What is a refundable tax credit?
Making tax credits refundable: the benefits
Details of Social Justice Ireland proposal
Data used in study
Cost of implementing the proposal
Major findings
Conclusions
Social Justice Ireland wishes to thank:
A Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could have a major positive impact on people's well-being and that of the planet, according to a new report by CIDDSE the international alliance of Catholic development agences. The report estimates that a FTT at 0.05% on financial transactions would raise €465bn. CIDSE advocates this money be used to tackle climate change issues. Social Justice Ireland has advocated for years for such a tax and proposed the income should be used to tackle poverty and climate change across the world with particular focus on achieving the Millennium Development Goals.
This report from CIDSE was issued ahead of meetings of EU Finance Ministers and an upcoming EU Impact Assessment of the FTT.
The fight against climate change is one of the global challenges governments continue to fail to stump up the money for. In decades of international climate negotiations money has proven an important stumbling block. Last December in Cancun, governments agreed to create a Green Climate Fund in the United Nations, which is to receive and distribute up to €70 billion (US$ 100 billion) a year from 2020, but nobody knows yet where this money is going to come from. In times of austerity, governments are reluctant about climate action weighing on their national budgets
There is no excuse for procrastination. The FTT is a credible mechanism by which to generate substantial amounts of money to help fill the climate fund and finance other global challenges, without requiring additional sacrifices from the taxpayer.
In practice, the FTT would mainly impact short-term trading which has no added value for the real economy and contribute to the stabilisation of financial markets by reducing speculation. While it is widely acknowledged that the tax can be put in practice (including 2010 studies by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission confirming its feasibility), the necessary political will is lacking. Countries like Germany, France, Belgium and Luxemburg are supportive, many others including the United Kingdom, the United States and the Netherlands are still unwilling to consider taxing financial transactions.
Those who oppose this proposal should realise that if the well-being of people and the planet are at risk, the future of the financial sector is too. The right thing to do now is to put people first, supporting the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax for a better future.
Raising sufficient money is not enough, it will have to be administered and spent well to make a positive and lasting impact. Decades-long experience working with partners in the global south to bring about change has made this clear. Based on this experience CIDSE makes two recommendations:
The German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has included a tax on financial transactions as part of his budget plan covering the period 2012-2015. This is a very welcome development. Social Justice Ireland has constantly argued for the introduction of a tax on financial transactions along the lines of the proposal originally presented by Nobel Economics Prize winner James Tobin and known since then as the Tobin Tax.
Leaders of the eurozone countries ended their recent summit by calling for a financial transactions tax – ideally across the EU but only in the single-currency zone if wider consensus was not possible.
Some multinational corporations are diverting profits made in developing countries to Ireland to avail of the low corporation tax rate here. By so doing they are robbing the countries in which they made their money of billions of euros in tax revenue.
Written by Dr Sheila Killian of the University of Limerick, the report details how companies use the technique of "transfer pricing" to allow subsidaries of a multinational company to artificially transfer profits made in one jurisdiction to be taxed in another country which has a lower tax rate.
The result is that companies registered in Ireland as having a small office and one or two staff are recording huge profits, which are subject to our low tax rate while the related company in a developing country where the money was actually made reports little to be taxed.
Author of the newly published book, Dr Sheila Killian, highlighted the fact that “Ireland’s tax model clearly does not do enough to protect vulnerable countries from tax revenue losses. Specifically, Ireland should adjust its transfer pricing regime to properly protect impoverished countries from losing tax revenue, and close domestic tax loopholes that may facilitate capital flight from impoverished countries“.
The Debt and Development Coalition Ireland was among a group of development organisations who launched this report. The others were.Afri, Christian Aid, Comhlámh, Oxfam Ireland, Trócaire
Social Justice Ireland supports these organisations' call for action by Government to end this practice.
The full text of the report may be uploaded here.
June 30, 2010 - The Irish Times published comments by Social Justice Ireland on the implications for Ireland of the latest Eurostat taxation figures
Social Justice Ireland welcomes the decision of the European Parliament to urge the EU to promote the introduction of a financial transaction tax such as the Tobin Tax which could raise around €200 billion per year in the EU and would also discourage speculative trading by making it more costly. A tax along these lines has been proposed constantly by Social Justice Ireland.
The resolution argues that a tax of this kind can yield a "double dividend" by not only generating more funds, but also making the financial sector safer and society greener.
The EU should promote the introduction of such a tax, even if it is alone in doing so, "as a first step", according to the resolution which was agreed by a vote of 529 to 127 on Tuesday March 8, 2011.
As the international economic chaos of the past few years has shown the world is now increasingly linked via millions of legitimate, speculative and opportunistic financial transactions. Similarly, global currency trading has been increasing dramatically throughout the last few decades. It is estimated that a very high proportion of all financial transactions traded are speculative currency transactions - these speculative transactions are completely free of taxation.
There is growing support worldwide for the introduction of a tax on such speculative exchange transactions. The Tobin tax, proposed by American James Tobin the Nobel Prize winner in economics in 1981, provides a potential solution. It is a progressive tax, designed to target only those profiting from currency speculation. Therefore, it is neither a tax on citizens, nor on business. Given the recent world economic experience, the tax also has merit in assisting Governments and regulators to continually monitor the risk that financial institutions are taking.
The majority of foreign exchange dealings are done by one hundred of the world's largest commercial and investment banks. The scale of their dealings is estimated at US$1.5 trillion worth of currency every day; all this in essentially unregulated financial markets. In 1998 the financial institution with the largest share of this market, Citibank, engaged in foreign exchange transactions worth US$8.5 trillion, a value in excess of the corresponding US GDP for that same year. The scope of the Tobin tax varies. Initially, James Tobin suggested a tax on all purchases of financial instruments denominated in another currency. Since then, Canadian economist Rodney Schmidt has broadened the tax to include all foreign exchange transactions. These would include simple exchanges of one currency for another (spot transactions) as well as complex derivative financial instruments including forwards, swaps, futures and options if they involve two currencies. The recent proposals in the UK for a ‘Robin-Hood Tax’ represent a further development of these proposals.
The rate would be determined by each country enacting the tax, but the tax range recommended to produce moderate market calming and revenue-raising outcomes is between 0.1 and 0.25 per cent. While this may seem very small to consumers, relative to VAT rates and income taxes, the impact on the margins of currency speculators would be enough to curb their activities.
The revenue from the tax would be considerable - somewhere in the region of €50 -100 billion per year. Though the effect of the tax over time would be to reduce the volume of currency speculation and thus the potential revenue from the tax, nevertheless the intake will remain high. It is proposed that the revenue generated by this tax be used for national social development and international development co-operation purposes. According to the United Nations, the amount of annual income raised from the tax would be enough to guarantee to every citizen of the world basic access to water, food, shelter, health and education. Therefore, this tax has the potential to wipe out the worst forms of material poverty throughout the world.
When James Tobin first put forward his idea he envisaged the tax being adopted by every country in the world simultaneously. Otherwise, he argued, speculators would “flock” to those countries without Tobin tax laws. Since such international agreement seemed improbable, the tax was seen by many as a worthy but impracticable proposal. However, over recent years the work of economists and financial experts has demonstrated that universal simultaneous adoption is not vital for a successful implementation. Essentially, foreign currency markets are concentrated on a global scale and if the principal countries implement the tax, this would suffice to cover the planet as a whole. Eight major countries account for more than 80 per cent of world exchange transactions, the foremost four for 65 per cent. In the City of London, the largest financial centre with 33 per cent of the world total, the 10 biggest banks account for 50 per cent of transactions. What is needed is for one major region of the world to implement the tax. Consequently, Social Justice Ireland welcomes the increasing attention this proposal has been receiving at European Inter-Governmental Level. We believe that the time has come for such a tax, It would simultaneously facilitate, and perhaps fund, the required regulation of financial speculation while providing substantial funds to adequately address the world development issues highlighted in the Millennium Development Goals.
The plenary session of the parliament in Strasbourg , which approved this resolution, heard that the next step should see the European Commission produce a feasibility study and concrete legislative proposals. Social Justice Ireland urges the Commission to act swiftly on this issue which has so many positive aspects if it were introduced.
TAX BREAKS result in the Irish exchequer forgoing €11 billion in income annually, according to a research paper presented at the Dublin Economics Workshop in Kenmare. The paper was written by two members of the Commission on Taxation: Dr Micheál L Collins, an economist at TCD, and Mary Walsh, a chartered accountant. The full paper is available here.
Social Justice Ireland published its latest chapter on 'values' in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
An integrated and balanced approach, which takes into account the well-being of individuals and of society, is required in responding to the economic crisis’ according to the National Economic and Social Council (NESC). In its recent report NESC argues that economic and social progress are complementary, so that social well-being is a central element in economic recovery.
The report, Well-Being Matters: A Social Report for Ireland, calls for a broader understanding of social progress. It concludes that:
o Something more than GDP is required to measure social progress. GDP can measure economic output but does not take adequate account of the value of education, our health, or the natural environment. Our social progress is linked to the capabilities of our people and that is where well-being matters.
o There is growing international interest in measures of well-being beyond GDP. The NESC report is the first major application of well-being to chart social progress in Ireland. The report tracks trends across six aspects of people’s lives: their economic resources, their work and education, their relationships and care, their community and environment, their health, and societal values.
o The evidence would suggest that all of these aspects of a person’s life are important for their well-being and that they are inter-connected’ said Helen Johnston of NESC, the author of the report. ‘The emphasis given to each depends on an individual’s particular circumstances, how they compare themselves to others, and by the values set in wider society.
The report deals with the relevance of well-being in a recession and crisis. It concludes that:
o Most people have the capacity and resilience to deal with adversity but often need some support. These should include support on employment, service provision, and income.
o In a climate of limited financial resources we need to think about how we can do things differently, rather than cutting away many of the services which have been developed in recent years,
o A focus on well-being helps us to understand some of the imbalances that gave rise to the crisis.
o It also forces us to think through the kind of balanced and sustainable pattern of growth and prosperity we would want to create as we come out of the crisis. Applying key aspects of a well-being approach we would take into account:
· Capability – by focusing on what individuals can do (not what they can’t do) with a view to developing their capabilities.
· Agency – by respecting the capacity of individuals to make decisions about their lives.
o Purpose – by recognising the importance of having a sense of purpose by encouraging and supporting people to engage in meaningful and rewarding activity.
o Social interaction – by acknowledging that we operate in the context of a set of relationships, of the family, community and wider society.
o Common good – by realising that as individuals and societies we do better in more equal and fairer societies.
o Sustainability – by appreciating that we live in a finite world and have to use our resources wisely now and for future generations.
According to this NESC Report, a person’s well-being relates to their physical, social and mental state. It requires that basic needs are met, that people have a sense of purpose, that they feel able to achieve important goals, to participate in society and to live lives they value and have reason to value. People’s well-being is enhanced by conditions that include financial and personal security, meaningful and rewarding work, supportive personal relationships, strong and inclusive communities, good health, a healthy and attractive environment, and values of democracy and social justice. Public policy’s role is to bring about these conditions by placing the individual at the centre of policy development and delivery, by assessing the risks facing him/her, and ensuring the supports are available to address those risks at key stages in his/her life.
In applying this conceptual approach, six ‘domains’ of well-being are focused on throughout the report:
· Economic resources;
· Work and participation;
· Relationships and care;
· Community and environment;
· Health; and
· Democracy and values.
The findings of the report lead to a number of policy conclusions. In the context of the recession, three urgent and demanding problems requiring immediate attention are identified as:
· The need to address unemployment through diverse and intensive activation measures;
· The provision of financial supports, including pension reform; and
· The transformation of institutions with improved accountability.
Ongoing priorities are identified as:
· Early childhood care and education;
· Life-long learning;
· Care supports to promote independent living;
· Supports to accommodate working and other activities, especially caring;
· Building sustainable communities; and
· Promoting better health.
The full report can be accessed here
Social Justice Ireland published its latest analysis and critique of work, unemployment and job-creation in Ireland as well as its policy proposals in the annual Socio-Economic Review published in April, 2010. The full text can be accessed here.
The seasonally adjusted number of people on the Live Register increased from 439,100 in May to 444,900 in June 2010, an increase of 5,800. According to the Central Statistic’s Office’s most recent publication the unadjusted numbers saw an increase in the Live Register of 37,420 (+9.0%). This compares with an increase of 43,788 (+11.1%) in the year to May 2010.

Many people are consuming well beyond their economic means and well beyond the limits of the natural environment, yet in ways that fail to improve their well-being. At the same time many others are trapped in unemployment and poverty. Continuing economic growth in high-income countries will make it impossible to achieve urgent carbon reduction targets.
Despite signs that the recession is slowing in Ireland as well as in many other countries, the short-term labour market outlook remains grim according to the OECD. In its Employment Outlook 2009, published on September 16, 2009, it states that latest OECD projections indicate a further decline in economic activity in Ireland in 2009, with a muted recovery surfacing only in 2010.
From December 2007 to July 2009, 166 000 individuals joined the ranks of the unemployed and the unemployment rate rose by 7.8 percentage points to reach 12.5%, the second-highest level in the OECD after Spain and the highest percentage increase in the unemployment rate witnessed during the current crisis.
The report goes on to state that past experience has shown that job creation lags output growth early in a recovery because employers still face a lot of uncertainty about their business prospects and many of their existing employees would like to work more hours.
Indeed, the OECD Employment Outlook 2009 indicates that the unemployment rate is likely to rise further in coming months, and could approach 15% in Ireland by the end of 2010 if the recovery fails to gain momentum.
Ireland has been hit harder by the jobs crisis than most other OECD countries according to the report. The collapse of the housing price bubble, compounded by the global financial crisis and economic slowdown, quickly translated into sharp job losses and increases in unemployment.
The OECD argues that to avoid a return to the high and persistent unemployment of the 1980 and early 1990s, a key priority for Ireland should be to provide effective employment services to a rapidly rising pool of jobseekers and to ensure that the most vulnerable of them do not lose contact with the labour market and drift into inactivity.
According to the OECD “it will be important now to re-invigorate past efforts to develop effective back-to-work policies in order to prevent the large hike in unemployment from casting a long shadow over the future.”
Commenting on current Government policy the OECD stated: “the increase in funding available for active labour market policies has been modest compared with the massive rise in unemployment. This has implied a sharp reduction in the resources available per job-seeker to help them find their way back into employment. This raises the question whether re-employment assistance to jobseekers is adequate to prevent the sharp recession from turning into a long-term unemployment crisis.”
Social Justice Ireland has consistently argued that the Irish Government needs to be much more pro-active in addressing the plight of those who have become unemployed recently and of those who are already long-term unemployed. Having failed to adjust to the changing world of work to ensure that meaningful work was available for all who seek it, Government is now failing to address the rapidly rising level of unemployment on the scale that is urgently required.
Unemployment in better-off countries could reach 10% of the labour force if the economic recovery fails to gain momentum according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This would bring the total number unemployed in these countries to 57 million. It has already reached 8.5%, an increase of more than 15 million in the numbers unemployed since the end of 2007.
According to the OECD despite early signs of economic recovery, in most countries unemployment will rise further in 2010 and remain high for the immediate future.
The Paris-based OECD said that, despite the economic improvements that have been seen, governments must intervene “quickly and decisively” to prevent the sharp rise turning into long-term joblessness.
In its annual employment outlook published on September 16, 2009 the OECD expressed fears that a recovery without jobs might emerge, even if the tentative return to economic growth currently being seen in some countries is sustained.
In 2007 the unemployment rate in the OECD was at a 25-year low of 5.6 per cent, but it rose to a postwar high of 8.5 per cent this July. The US, Spain and Ireland, where the banking crisis has been accompanied by a housing market collapse, have been worst hit. The rise in unemployment has been slower in European economies such as Germany and Italy.
The report suggests that Ireland, Japan, Spain and the US may have already seen most of their likely job losses. It also states that countries such as France, Germany and Italy may yet see substantial increases in their unemployment levels.
Social Justice Ireland welcomes the OECD recommendation that, in light of these developments, governments must urgently reassess and adapt their labour market and social policies in order to prevent people from falling into the trap of long-term unemployment.
The report notes that most OECD countries have introduced measures to support labour demand. These include temporary cuts in employers’ social security contributions and short-time working subsidies to compensate workers for working fewer hours or to encourage firms to hire such as the German Kurzarbeit, which involves about 1.5m workers.
As part of an overall strategy to tackle the jobs crisis, the OECD also recommends governments to:
In the short-term, the OECD acknowledges that these measures are playing a positive role. 21 countries have sought to save jobs by introducing or expanding short-time working schemes. But the OECD insisted that such schemes must be focused on companies where demand was only temporarily depressed, otherwise they could hamper the recovery by putting a brake on the required reallocation of workers from declining to expanding companies.
The report went on to say that governments must urgently adapt their labour market and social policies to prevent people falling into the trap of long-term unemployment. Measures should be focused on helping young people, who have been hardest hit by the crisis, to reduce the risk of producing a “lost generation”.
The OECD report also said that social safety nets should be reinforced to avoid jobless people falling into poverty. It urged an increase in spending on active labour market policies, such as job search assistance and training, to help the unemployed back to work. According to the report spending on these policies has increased in many countries but has not kept pace with the scale of job losses.
More than 23 million people in the EU were unemployed in May 2010 according to the latest statistics published by Eurostat equivalent to 10% of the labour force. Of these, 15.789 million were in the 16 countries in the euro area. In the year since May 2009, unemployment rose by 1.8 million in the EU, and by 1 million in the euro area.
The number of persons unemployed decreased by 37 000 in the EU since April 2010. By contrast, in the euro area the number of persons unemployed increased by 35 000 over the preceding month.
These figures were published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.
Among the EU Member States, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Austria (4.0%) and the Netherlands (4.3%), and the highest rates in Latvia (20.0% in the first quarter of 2010), Spain (19.9%) and Estonia (19.0% in the first quarter of 2010). In Ireland the unemployment rate recorded by Eurostat at the end of May 2010 was 13.3%.
Compared with a year ago, five Member States recorded a fall in the unemployment rate and twenty-two an increase. The largest falls were observed in Austria (4.9% to 4.0%) and Germany (7.6% to 7.0%). The highest increases were registered in Estonia (11.0% to 19.0% between the first quarters of 2009 and 2010) and Latvia (13.5% to 20.0% between the first quarters of 2009 and 2010). In Ireland there was an increase from 12% to 13.3%.
It is interesting to note that in Germany unemployment has fallen continuously since last summer, to reach 7.0%. Employment there is boosted by short-time work schemes, where companies are paid by the authorities to retain workers through the downturn rather than making them redundant.
Social Justice Ireland urges the Government to act immediately on unemployment, especially long term unemployment. A report just published by European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound) has found that the Irish labour market suffered more job losses proportionately between 2008 and 2010 than any other country in the 27 States of the EU.
At present 300,000 people are unemployed in the Irish labour market. Almost 150,000 of these are long term unemployed.
The report found that the impact of the crisis has also differed in terms of its effects on different categories of worker:
· Younger male workers, those with lower educational levels or in temporary contracts have been most affected.
· The crisis has largely spared, thus far, those in higher-skilled occupations, especially experienced, older workers.
· Ireland suffered a 14.5% drop in employment levels between Q2 2008 and Q2 2010.
· The greatest decline was amongst males employed in the construction sector
· The foreign-born working population in the EU 27 States declined most over the period in Ireland (where it fell by 105,000)
Social Justice Ireland has long argued that the unemployment crisis must be addressed and has presented to government a fully-costed proposal on a Part Time Job Opportunities Programme which would take 100,000 of those who are long term unemployed off the live register and back into the labour market. This proposal has already been piloted successfully between 1994 and 1997 and presents Government with a clear opportunity to tackle the structural problem of long term unemployment.
As found in the report those with lower education levels have been most affected by unemployment. This issue needs to be addressed urgently and Social Justice Ireland has argued that Government needs to invest €20m in Adult Literacy in the coming budget in order to support these people in gaining the skills to allow them to take up jobs when they become available.
To read the Eurofound report click here.
To read Social Justice Ireland’s Part Time Job Opportunities Programme click here.
To read Social Justice Ireland’s position on Adult Literacy, education and educational disadvantage click here
Minister Richard Bruton has announced the launch of the Government’s multi-annual Action Plan for Jobs. This has been announced on several previous occasions but this time it has a little more information. Government’s target is to create 100,000 extra jobs by 2015 and to have two million people ‘back at work’ by 2020. Towards reaching this target it proposes to make €2,000 a year available to 5,000 businesses for a decade.
In support of its job creation targets the government has set out its plan to make €100m available in a Micro Finance Loan Fund to benefit 5,000 businesses over a ten year period. On examination of the proposal the government hopes that by providing an average of €2,000 per annum to 5,000 businesses for ten years it will get two million people back to work by 2020.
Social Justice Ireland believes that this plan is neither adequate nor credible in terms of job creation. Domestic demand has fallen by 20% since 2007and is expected to fall again next year according to the Government’s own forecast. Serious questions must be asked of government. Policy is relying on export led economic growth at a time when there is extreme uncertainty in international financial markets and the expected growth rates in the Eurozone, the UK and the US are all looking bleak. Government will not see any great increase in job numbers without first creating a situation where domestic demand increases.
The government acknowledges in its Medium Term Fiscal Statement that its own projection of a decline in unemployment to 11.6% by 2015 (a reduction of approximately 52,000) is based on assumptions that more job seekers will emigrate or otherwise withdraw from the labour force.
Yet again the government has shown that it has neither the vision nor the strategy to tackle the growing unemployment problem. Social Justice Ireland has presented to government a fully-costed proposal on a Part Time Job Opportunities Programme which would take 100,000 of those who are long term unemployed off the live register and back into the labour market. This proposal has already been piloted successfully between 1994 and 1997 and presents Government with a clear opportunity to tackle the structural problem of long term unemployment.
Social Justice Ireland urges government to act on this proposal immediately to prevent a worsening situation of structural unemployment developing in Ireland. The plans unveiled by Minister Bruton yesterday are wholly inadequate to deal with the present situation.
To read Social Justice Ireland’s Part Time Job Opportunities Programme proposal click here
To read information regarding Government’s Action Plan for Jobs click here
To read the Medium Term Fiscal Statement click here
Social Justice Ireland has strongly criticised a proposal from the OECD that unemployment payments should be reduced over time to encourage unemployed people to take up employment. The vast majority of unemployed people would take up any job that was available. Just a few years ago the long-term unemployment rate in Ireland was one of the lowest in the world at 1.3%. Many people became unemployed because of the collapse in the economy. The greatest devastation of this recession is being borne by those who have lost their jobs. There is no evidence to suggest these people would not take up a job if it were available. Blaming unemployed people for the failures in the economy and the inability to produce jobs is perverse in the extreme.
Social Justice Ireland wishes to point out that:
The proposal by the OECD that unemployment payments should be reduced further shows the OECD is totally out of touch with the reality of the lives of people who are unemployed and are ignoring the fact that they are unemployed because a sufficient number of jobs don’t exist in the economy.
The claim that everybody should make a contribution to the adjustment required in Ireland at present has been repeated like a mantra in policy discussion and public commentary. Yet it is only half true. Yes, Social Justice Ireland agrees everyone should make a contribution insofar as they can. But we do not accept that some people should be driven into poverty because of the contribution that is demanded of them. To do this is to try to solve one problem by creating a deeper and more long-lasting one. “We reject any attempt to solve Ireland’s problems by increasing inequality or by forcing the most vulnerable members of the popu! lation into a situation where they do not have the resources to live life with dignity” according to Fr Healy. ‘Hits’ on poor people and the low-paid have far bigger negative impact than larger hits on the better off who have resources to absorb the hits. It is profoundly wrong for example that poor people carry a major burden while senior bond-holders, who carry a large part of the responsibility for Ireland’s implosion, make no contribution to sharing the burden.
As unemployment reaches its highest point in 2011 Government requires a twin-track strategy – one track focused on job-creation and the other track focused on creating real meaningful work opportunities for people who are long-term unemployed. Social Justice Ireland believes that while initiatives focused on improving job creation and protecting jobs that already exist are very welcome and necessary, they should not be allowed to create an illusion that Ireland’s unemployment crisis will be resolved in the period immediately ahead.