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Economic Forecast


The Government’s Stability Programme Update raises major challenges for Ireland on debt, infrastructure, taxation and services.  Social Justice Ireland believes a new approach is required if these challenges are to be addressed effectively.

A recent publication by the Government’s own Parliamentary Budget Office provides an analytical model for public debt sustainability and shows, without debt consolidation or spending cuts, Ireland’s debt to income ratio over the next decade will be on a downward trajectory.

All plans for recovery from the present crisis must ensure that the economy and society are treated equally and addressed simultaneously.  Analysing the Stability Programme Update (SPU) recently published by Government and reflecting on the commentary on its implications, it is clear that Ireland is in danger of repeating the mistakes of the past.  One of the major lessons to be learned from the crisis of 2008/9 and the subsequent recovery is that giving priority to the economy over all else simply leads to some parts of society doing very well while great swathes are left further and further behind.

On Tuesday, 12th November 2019, President Michael D. Higgins hosted a seminar entitled "Rethinking Economics:  The Role of the State in Fostering a Sustaiable and Inclusive Economy".

In his opening remarks, he cautioned "the prevailing neoliberal model which features markets without regulation, distorted trade and unrestricted globalisation, the priority of the price mechanism and the practice of commodification, speculative investment, and which results in unbridled consumption, yawning inequality and destructive extraction of natural resources is unsustainable from economic, environmental and social standpoints."

The OECD and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council have both published reports outlining the significant challenges ahead for Ireland and Europe in terms of economic recovery.  The publication of these reports reinforces the need for long-term planning to be at the heart of policy making in order to deliver the services and infrastructure that will be required in the years ahead. 

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council Fiscal Assessment Report November 2014 assesses Ireland's Fiscal Stance, Macro Economic Forecasts and Budgetary Forecasts.

OECD Economic Outlook 2014

The Government of Ireland published a Medium Term Economic Strategy in Deceober 2013.

The announcement by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) that  Ireland is in recession confirms Social Justice Ireland's claims in its recently published Policy Briefing on Budget Choices 2014 that the growth forecasts most recently set out by the Department of Finance are not credible

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