A New Social Contract is Needed

In January 2026, the Hot or Cool Institute, in collaboration with the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), published a comprehensive report titled 'Unfulfilled Promises? The State of the Social Contract in the 21st Century'. This study evaluates whether the implicit social contract between citizens and states is being fulfilled across contemporary societies, especially within Europe, and identifies where expectations are falling short.

What Is the Social Contract and Why It Matters

The social contract is a foundational idea in political philosophy which describes the unwritten agreement between individuals and their governments. It embodies mutual expectations, that governments provide stability, rights, protection and opportunities and in return, citizens participate in civic life and trust institutions. However, the report contends that many of these promises, economic security, democratic representation, environmental protection, and welfare are increasingly unfulfilled for many sections of society. 

To assess reality against expectations, the authors built a Social Contract Dashboard, a quantitative tool combining 49 indicators across four core 'pacts'.  

• Consumption Pact – material standards of living and ability to participate socially.
• Democracy Pact – political voice, institutional trust and representation.
• Security Pact – safety from harm and socio-economic threats.
• Work-Welfare Pact – access to dignified work, social protection, healthcare, and housing.

The dashboard allows for direct comparison of measurable outcomes against thresholds that indicate whether key portions of the social contract are being met.

Key Findings: A Contract Under Strain

Stagnation or Decline in Middle-Income Countries

Across Western and Northern Europe, the report finds little to no progress in the overall fulfillment of the social contract. In Nordic countries, often held up as models of welfare and inclusion, progress has plateaued and in Western Europe, overall performance has stagnated at levels similar to the late 2010s.

Uneven Achievements Across Indicators

While some targets, especially around environmental quality (like air pollution thresholds), see partial attainment, others fare poorly. For example, educational outcomes and access to quality education are low in many countries, trust in political institutions and feelings of representation remain weak and only a minority of citizens feel politically heard or believe their country is moving in the right direction. Also of concern, greenhouse gas emissions remain incompatible with global climate goals.

Regional Variation

There are clear differences between regions. Nordic and Western European states outperform Southern and post-Communist Europe on many measures, but even here, core expectations, especially around future prospects and political trust, are eroding.

The report suggests that the traditional social contract is fraying. People are facing rising insecurity in work and consumption levels and democratic institutions and governments are seen as failing to deliver on key promises of progress. This disconnect appears to be driven not just by economic or political cycles but by deep structural shifts. Globalisation, environmental pressures, technological changes, demographic shifts, and growing inequality are combining to stretch the original social contract beyond its capacity. 

What the Report Recommends

While the study primarily maps the current state, it also hints at the need for a renewed social contract, one that better aligns expectations with 21st-century realities. The authors propose that policies must intentionally integrate environmental sustainability with economic security, democratic institutions need reform to genuinely represent citizen voices and that social protection systems must adapt to changing labour markets and inequality challenges. Citizens should be engaged in redefining mutual expectations. The Unfulfilled Promises report presents a sobering portrait. Across much of Europe and reflected in trends globally, the social contract that once underpinned faith in government and social progress is increasingly unfulfilled. Whether this represents a temporary divergence or a deeper systemic shift is a central question for policymakers, scholars, and citizens alike as they navigate the future of democratic societies.

Policy Proposals 

It is Social Justice Ireland’s contention that a new social contract is required to address the challenges facing our society. Public policy should be focused on simultaneously delivering five outcomes as part of that a new social contract: a vibrant economy; decent infrastructure and services; just taxation; good governance; and sustainability. This approach is not simply do-able; it is also desirable. 

Social Justice Ireland strongly believes in the importance of developing a rights-based approach to sustainable development and wellbeing. We have an opportunity to harness the major transitions taking place in our world, to transform our society and economy in service of the common good. A transformation in how we live is coming one way or the other: the question is whether public policy will be used to shape our future in a way that is humane, ecologically sound, and socially just?