Ireland has fastest growing peripheral economy 2010-2016 but will only reach 2007 level in 2016

Posted on Tuesday, 12 April 2011

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Report published Monday, April 11, 2011, shows Ireland as having the fastest-growing economy, as measured in nominal GDP terms, among the European periphery countries (Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland) between 2010 and 2016.  However, because of Ireland's decline in the 2007-2010 period, Ireland will simply reach its 2007 level in 2016.

The other four countries will have grown by between 15% and 22% over the same decade.  While the approach of using nominal GDP may be questionable this comparison does give some idea of the huge adjustments Ireland has made and is still facing to get back to 2007 nominal GDP levels.

A day later in its Fiscal Monitor, the IMF forecast that Ireland will not achieve its deficit target for 2011 which it believes will be 10.8% in contrast to the Government's forecast on Budget Day of 10%.  It also claims that Ireland will not reach its 3% target level in 2015 as forecast by the new Government in its Programme for Government. The IMF doesn't believe that Ireland will reach that target by 2016 either when it forecasts Ireland's deficit will be 3.8% of GDP.